🥊 UFC

Saturday, May 16, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

Game starts in 20d 18h 40m

Trey Ogden

Trey Ogden

vs

Thomas Gantt

Thomas Gantt

Thomas Gantt

AI Confidence: 67%

Winner: Thomas Gantt (67%)

Method: Submission

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Trey Ogden vs Thomas Gantt Prediction

This lightweight bout pits the undefeated UFC debutant Thomas Gantt against the more experienced, but recently injured, Trey Ogden. Gantt brings significant momentum and a high finishing rate, while Ogden seeks to rebound from a bicep tear and a layoff.

AI-powered prediction

FIGHT WINNER

Thomas Gantt

67%

Thomas Gantt enters the UFC with an impressive 11-0 undefeated record, showcasing a high finishing rate with both KOs and submissions. His recent performance on Dana White's Contender Series, where he secured a guillotine choke, highlights his dangerous grappling. Trey Ogden, while possessing more UFC experience, is coming off a significant layoff due to a bicep tear and Achilles tendonitis, which required surgery. Although Ogden has had time to recover and reflect on his style, returning from such injuries can impact performance. Ogden himself acknowledges Gantt's strong wrestling and dangerous front headlocks, which aligns with Gantt's demonstrated submission prowess. Gantt also holds a reach advantage (76" vs 72") and has been highly active, maintaining strong fight rhythm. While Ogden has shown durability and a capable grappling game, Gantt's momentum, aggressive finishing style, and Ogden's recent injury history give Gantt a clear advantage, particularly in a grappling-heavy exchange where a bicep injury could be a vulnerability.

METHOD OF VICTORY

Submission

Round: Round 2

67%

Thomas Gantt enters the UFC with an impressive 11-0 undefeated record, showcasing a high finishing rate with both KOs and submissions. His recent performance on Dana White's Contender Series, where he secured a guillotine choke, highlights his dangerous grappling. Trey Ogden, while possessing more UFC experience, is coming off a significant layoff due to a bicep tear and Achilles tendonitis, which required surgery. Although Ogden has had time to recover and reflect on his style, returning from such injuries can impact performance. Ogden himself acknowledges Gantt's strong wrestling and dangerous front headlocks, which aligns with Gantt's demonstrated submission prowess. Gantt also holds a reach advantage (76" vs 72") and has been highly active, maintaining strong fight rhythm. While Ogden has shown durability and a capable grappling game, Gantt's momentum, aggressive finishing style, and Ogden's recent injury history give Gantt a clear advantage, particularly in a grappling-heavy exchange where a bicep injury could be a vulnerability.

Trey Ogden vs Thomas Gantt Key Stats (AI)

Trey OgdenStatThomas Gantt
33% AI Win Probability67%
80% Model Confidence

Betting Angles Trey Ogden vs Thomas Gantt

💰 Sharp Money

Without official odds, it's hard to determine sharp money movement. However, if lines open, expect money to come in on Gantt as the 'hot prospect' against a fighter returning from injury. Line movement: N/A as odds are not available.

Model Confidence

80%

Data quality: Good. Recent fight records, injury updates, and fighter statements are available and consistent across multiple sources.

Limitations

  • Lack of official betting odds prevents analysis of line movement and sharp money.
  • Thomas Gantt's UFC statistical data is based on a very small sample size (one DWCS fight), so his per-minute stats might not fully reflect his performance against a UFC veteran.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.

Trey Ogden vs Thomas Gantt FAQ

The fight is scheduled for May 16, 2026, at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, held at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada.