Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Game starts in 20d 21h 37m
Modestas Bukauskas
vs
Rodolfo Bellato
AI Confidence: 59%
Winner: Modestas Bukauskas (59%)
Spread: Modestas Bukauskas (Moneyline) (-150) (59%)
Total: Over 1.5 (59%)
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Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato Prediction
The light heavyweight clash between Modestas Bukauskas and Rodolfo Bellato on May 16, 2026, features a technical striker against an aggressive brawler. Bukauskas's versatility and recent form give him an edge, though Bellato's power cannot be underestimated. Expect a competitive fight where striking exchanges will be key, with potential grappling transitions.
FIGHT WINNER
Modestas Bukauskas
Predicted: 30-27 (Decision)
59%
Modestas Bukauskas, 'The Baltic Gladiator,' demonstrates a more versatile striking game and improved consistency in his second UFC stint, having secured multiple finishes and decisions against tough opponents. Rodolfo Bellato, while a powerful brawler with a strong ground game and recent TKO victory, has shown an inconsistent 'weird run' of results, including a loss, a draw, and a no-contest in his last few outings. Bukauskas's effective striking defense (50%) and decent takedown defense (79%) should allow him to neutralize Bellato's aggressive forward pressure and grappling attempts. Bellato's tendency to absorb significant strikes (5.86 SApM) and slightly lower striking defense (46%) could be exploited by Bukauskas's technical striking and diverse attack. Although Bellato possesses fight-ending power, Bukauskas's ability to mix up his attacks and manage the distance will likely lead him to victory via decision.
SPREAD PREDICTION
Modestas Bukauskas (Moneyline) (-150)
59%
While official betting spreads are not widely available for this fight, Modestas Bukauskas is anticipated to be the moneyline favorite due to his more consistent recent performances and diverse skillset. His ability to maintain striking distance and defend takedowns positions him favorably against Bellato's aggressive style. The implied odds for a -150 moneyline would suggest a 60% probability of victory.
TOTAL PREDICTION
Over 1.5
59%
Both fighters have demonstrated finishes in their recent bouts, with Bukauskas having a KO in Round 1 and a submission in Round 3 in 2025, and Bellato securing a Round 1 TKO in March 2026. However, both also have fights that go to decision or extend beyond the first round, with average fight times around 9 minutes. Considering their durability and offensive capabilities, it's likely this fight extends past the first round, making the 'Over 1.5 Rounds' a reasonable pick.
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Method of Victory
Modestas Bukauskas by Decision
Bukauskas has demonstrated the ability to win by decision against durable opponents, and his technical striking could allow him to outpoint Bellato over three rounds.
Fight to Go the Distance
Yes
While both fighters have finishing capabilities, Bellato has recently fought to a draw and a no-contest, suggesting his fights can extend. Bukauskas also has decision wins on his record.
Round Betting
Modestas Bukauskas in Round 3
If Bukauskas secures a finish, it's likely to come later in the fight as Bellato is a durable fighter. Bellato's last loss was a KO/TKO in Round 3.
Either Fighter by KO/TKO
Yes
Both Bukauskas and Bellato possess significant striking power, with multiple knockout victories in their careers. Bellato recently secured a TKO, and Bukauskas has several recent KO/TKO wins.
Significant Strikes Landed (Modestas Bukauskas)
Over 35.5
Bukauskas averages 3.24 significant strikes landed per minute. In a potential three-round fight, he is likely to land over 35 significant strikes, especially if he can maintain distance and implement his technical striking.
Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato โ Key Stats (AI)
Betting Angles โ Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato
๐ฐ Sharp Money
No significant sharp money movements can be reported as official betting lines are not yet consistently published across major sportsbooks for this specific fight. Line movement: Given the fight is still some time away (May 16, 2026), and lines are not widely released, there has been no discernible line movement.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 10.52 (+952)
AI Confidence: 55%
$10 โ $105.20 | $25 โ $263.00 | $50 โ $526.00
Correlation: Positive correlation is expected as a Bukauskas moneyline win by decision directly aligns with the fight going the distance. His technical style suggests he can outpoint opponents over three rounds.
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- โ ๏ธBellato's unpredictable power and brawling style leading to an early finish
- โ ๏ธBukauskas's recent KO loss potentially affecting confidence or durability
- โ ๏ธThe fight turning into a grueling grappling match, favoring Bellato's ground game
- โ ๏ธJudging subjectivity in a close decision
Model Confidence
โก68%
Data quality: High
Limitations
- โขAbsence of official, current betting odds requiring estimations for certain markets
- โขMMA's inherent unpredictability where one strike can change the fight
- โขReliance on historical performance which may not fully account for recent improvements or declines
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato โ FAQ
The fight between Modestas Bukauskas and Rodolfo Bellato is scheduled for May 16, 2026, as part of UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.