Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi Prediction

FIGHT WINNER

Manel Kape

Predicted: KO/TKO

⚡67%

Manel Kape, currently ranked #2 in the UFC Flyweight division, enters this rematch with significant momentum, boasting three consecutive victories, all by KO/TKO. He averages 5.04 significant strikes landed per minute with a 56% accuracy, demonstrating his potent striking ability. While Kyoji Horiguchi (ranked #5) secured a submission victory in their previous Rizin encounter in 2017, Kape has visibly evolved his game, particularly in his finishing prowess within the UFC. Horiguchi is a highly skilled and well-rounded fighter with a strong wrestling and karate background, but Kape's recent run of finishes against ranked opponents suggests a higher likelihood of him securing a stoppage victory in this contest. Kape's southpaw stance and aggressive approach could pose problems for Horiguchi early on.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Manel Kape -3.5 (KO/TKO Rounds 1-3) (-3.5)

72%

Manel Kape's recent form includes multiple finishes, with two of his last three wins coming in the third round. Given his striking power and Horiguchi's past vulnerabilities to strikes, a Kape victory within the distance is a strong possibility. While Horiguchi is durable, Kape's consistent pressure and finishing instincts could lead to a stoppage before the championship rounds.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Under 3.5

68%

Both fighters possess the ability to finish fights, with Kape having a high KO rate in his recent UFC run, often securing stoppages in the third round. Horiguchi also has a history of early finishes in his career. While Horiguchi has gone to decision recently, Kape's aggressive style and power increase the likelihood of this fight ending inside the distance.

✅ Fight Outcome: Manel Kape by KO/TKO: Manel Kape by KO/TKO

Kape has been on a finishing spree, with his last three wins coming via KO/TKO, including against ranked opponents. This suggests his current power and precision are at a career-high, making a KO/TKO a strong probability against a fighter like Horiguchi, who, despite his durability, has been stopped by strikes before.

✅ Total Rounds Under 3.5: Under 3.5 Rounds

Given Kape's recent propensity for finishes, often in the mid-to-late rounds, and Horiguchi's own ability to finish fights early, the fight going under 3.5 rounds presents good value. Both fighters have the tools to end the fight decisively.

💰 Sharp Money

Indications from AI models suggest a high confidence in Kape, implying sharp money may be aligning with his finishing potential. Line movement: Without specific current lines, historical data shows Horiguchi as a heavy favorite in their first fight. However, Kape's current UFC performance indicates a significant shift, likely positioning him as the favorite in this rematch.