Saturday, Jun 13, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC
Game starts in 21d 7h 48m
Jordan Griffin
vs
Derek Miner
AI Confidence: 59%
Winner: Jordan Griffin (59%)
Spread: Jordan Griffin -1.5 Rounds (-1.5) (58%)
Total: Over 1.5 (โก65%)
Get $5 Free Bet โ No Deposit Required
Bet Jordan Griffin ยท AI confidence 59%
18+ ยท Play Responsibly ยท Predictify Sports may earn commission ยท Affiliate disclosure
Jordan Griffin vs Derek Miner Prediction
This featherweight bout is a rematch between two experienced grapplers, Jordan Griffin and Darrick Minner, with Griffin holding a prior submission victory. Both fighters are aged 36 and have had challenging recent career paths, with Griffin facing a significant layoff and Minner dealing with injury, a UFC suspension, and subsequent regional fights.
Jordan Griffin face Derek Miner on Saturday, part of the 2026 UFC season. Both fighters' recent records, methods of victory, and stylistic matchup factors are detailed alongside the prediction below.
FIGHT WINNER
Jordan Griffin
Predicted: Griffin by Submission Round 2
59%
Jordan Griffin previously defeated Darrick Minner by submission (armbar) in 2018, showcasing his grappling advantage and a clear path to victory in a rematch. Griffin possesses a strong submission game, with 9 of his 18 professional wins coming by way of submission, including his last UFC victory by guillotine choke. While Griffin faces a significant layoff since his last fight in April 2022, Darrick Minner's recent activity in regional circuits in August 2025 could suggest better current fight readiness. However, Minner's past knee injury and subsequent suspension from the UFC due to betting controversy raise concerns about his long-term physical and mental state for a high-stakes bout. Despite Minner's wrestling background and numerous submission victories, Griffin's proven ability to submit him previously, combined with both fighters being past their UFC primes and having similar age, makes Griffin the slight favorite, assuming he has adequately prepared for his return.
SPREAD PREDICTION
Jordan Griffin -1.5 Rounds (-1.5)
58%
Given Jordan Griffin's previous submission victory over Darrick Minner in the second round, a win inside the distance (meaning -1.5 rounds) is a plausible outcome for him. His high finish rate and submission-focused style suggest he won't rely on a decision, especially against an opponent he's submitted before.
TOTAL PREDICTION
Over 1.5
65%
Both fighters possess strong grappling and submission skills, suggesting exchanges that could prolong the fight rather than end in a quick knockout. Their previous encounter went into the second round before a submission finish, indicating the fight is likely to extend beyond the first round. A cautious tactical approach is plausible, pushing the fight past the initial round.
๐ More Markets
๐ Additional Markets
Method of Victory
Jordan Griffin by Submission
Griffin's previous win over Minner was via submission, and his fighting style heavily favors grappling and chokes.
Fight to go the Distance?
No
Both fighters have high finishing rates (Griffin 78%, Minner with 22 submissions out of 28 wins), indicating a high probability of the fight ending before the final bell.
Round Betting
Jordan Griffin Round 2
Their initial encounter ended in the second round, and a grappling-heavy contest often sees finishes occur in later rounds as fatigue accumulates.
First Takedown
Darrick Minner
Darrick Minner is primarily a wrestler by background and often looks to secure takedowns early in his fights to establish his ground game.
Total Takedowns (Over/Under)
Over 3.5
Given that both are grappling specialists, particularly Minner with his wrestling base, expect multiple takedown attempts and successful takedowns throughout the fight.
Jordan Griffin vs Derek Miner โ Key Stats (AI)
No recent head-to-head meetings on record for this matchup.
Betting Angles โ Jordan Griffin vs Derek Miner
โ ๏ธ Moneyline: Jordan Griffin
Our model rates Jordan Griffin's win probability slightly higher than the implied odds suggest, offering a small edge, primarily due to his historical win over Minner and proven submission threat.
โ Method of Victory: Jordan Griffin by Submission
Griffin's most effective path to victory against Minner has been a submission, and a significant portion of his career wins come by this method. The odds may underestimate his likelihood to secure another submission given their previous encounter.
โ ๏ธ Total Rounds: Over 1.5 Rounds
Both fighters' grappling-heavy styles often lead to prolonged exchanges, and their first fight went into the second round before a finish. There's a slight value in betting the over as the fight is unlikely to end in a swift first-round knockout.
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Unclear, as this is a hypothetical future fight without current betting lines. Line movement: No discernible line movement currently, as this fight is not yet officially opened for betting across major sportsbooks.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Jordan Griffin vs Derek Miner
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 3.00 (+200)
AI Confidence: 60%
$10 โ $30.00 | $25 โ $75.00 | $50 โ $150.00
Correlation: medium
Risk Assessment
High Risk- โ ๏ธJordan Griffin's prolonged layoff (over four years since last fight) and potential ring rust
- โ ๏ธDarrick Minner's physical recovery from past knee injury and his mental state following his UFC release and suspension
- โ ๏ธThe inherent unpredictability of MMA, particularly in a rematch between two grappling specialists with significant time passed since their last encounter.
Data Quality Score
โก65%
Data quality: Medium
Limitations
- โขLack of officially confirmed booking and current betting lines for this specific 2026 fight, leading to estimated odds and speculative current form.
- โขReliance on historical data for fighters who have been inactive in the top tier for some time.
- โขThe 'UFC game' context is assumed, but both fighters are currently outside the UFC rankings, adding ambiguity.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Jordan Griffin vs Derek Miner โ FAQ
Yes, Jordan Griffin previously defeated Darrick Minner by submission (armbar) in the second round at LFA 34 on March 2, 2018. This fight represents their only recorded professional encounter.
Our UFC predictions weigh both fighters' recent records, methods of victory, stylistic matchups, reach, and layoff length. MMA is structurally upset-prone โ confidence rarely exceeds 75% even on clear stylistic edges. See the full methodology and other matches on our AI UFC Predictions hub.