Jan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov Prediction

FIGHT WINNER

Jan Blachowicz

Predicted: Decision (29-28)

59%

This light heavyweight rematch is highly anticipated after their first encounter resulted in a majority draw on December 6, 2025, at UFC 323. Jan Blachowicz, the former champion and ranked #4, brings a well-rounded skillset with 'Polish Power' in his striking, a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and strong grappling defense. At 43, Blachowicz's age and recent form (1-2-2 in his last five fights prior to the draw) are potential concerns. Bogdan Guskov, ranked #10, is a dangerous and aggressive striker with significant knockout power, boasting a 100% finish rate in his 18 wins. While Guskov is younger and has been on a 5-fight unbeaten streak (including the draw) with several recent finishes, his takedown defense and chin have been identified as potential weaknesses. Blachowicz's path to victory lies in exploiting Guskov's defensive liabilities, utilizing his technical striking, low kicks, and grappling to control rounds, as suggested by past analyses. Given their evenly matched first fight where Blachowicz landed slightly more significant strikes and Guskov controlled more cage time, this rematch will likely be another close contest. However, Blachowicz's experience, technical precision, and proven ability to go the distance, coupled with his grappling advantage, are expected to give him the edge in a decision victory. It is crucial to note that Jan Blachowicz has officially withdrawn from this fight due to a torn meniscus, leaving Guskov without an opponent as of April 18, 2026. This prediction is made hypothetically as if the fight proceeds as originally scheduled.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Jan Blachowicz Moneyline (0)

59%

Jan Blachowicz, despite his age and recent form, possesses the technical striking, grappling acumen, and championship experience to overcome Bogdan Guskov. The first fight ending in a draw indicates a competitive matchup, but Blachowicz's ability to adjust and implement a more grappling-heavy or controlled striking game plan could neutralize Guskov's power. Guskov's aggressive style and questionable takedown defense provide avenues for Blachowicz to secure rounds, especially if he can avoid the early power shots.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 2.5

59%

Their first bout went to a majority draw, indicating it lasted the full three rounds. While Bogdan Guskov has a high finishing rate, Jan Blachowicz is known for his durability, having only been stopped twice in his last 14 years. This suggests that Blachowicz is capable of withstanding Guskov's early onslaught, making it probable for the fight to extend beyond 2.5 rounds and potentially go to a decision once again.

✅ Match Winner: Jan Blachowicz

Blachowicz was a -135 to -145 favorite in their previous fight (equivalent to 1.74-1.69 decimal odds). If similar odds are offered, our model (68% probability) sees value in Blachowicz at 1.85, representing a significant edge due to his technical superiority and potential for a decision win in a closely contested rematch.

✅ Total Rounds: Over 2.5

Their first fight went the distance, resulting in a draw, suggesting both fighters are durable enough to see a full fight. Despite Guskov's finishing prowess, Blachowicz's resilience and ability to control the pace can push this fight late. A line of 1.95 offers good value for the over, given the historical context.

✅ Method of Victory: Jan Blachowicz by Decision

Considering their first bout was a draw that went to the judges, a decision victory for Blachowicz is a very plausible outcome, especially if he implements a strategy to outpoint Guskov through control and technical striking. Our model predicts a decision outcome as the most likely path for Blachowicz, making odds around 3.00 appealing.

💰 Sharp Money

Indications from the previous bout suggested slight sharp money on Blachowicz, but the rematch could see more split action given the draw. Line movement: Historically, lines for their first fight saw Blachowicz as a consistent favorite. For the rematch, initial lines might reflect the previous draw, potentially tightening or favoring the younger Guskov if Blachowicz's age is heavily factored.