Sunday, May 3, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
Game starts in 18d 3h 32m
Jack Della Maddalena
vs
Carlos Prates
AI Confidence: โก65%
Winner: Jack Della Maddalena (โก65%)
Spread: Jack Della Maddalena -125 (-125) (โก65%)
Total: Under 3.5 (60%)
Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates Prediction
This welterweight main event in Perth pits former champion Jack Della Maddalena against the surging knockout artist Carlos Prates in a highly anticipated striker's delight. Della Maddalena will look to leverage his technical boxing and home support against Prates's formidable Muay Thai and devastating power.
FIGHT WINNER
Jack Della Maddalena
Predicted: Jack Della Maddalena by TKO in Round 4
โก65%
Jack Della Maddalena, a former UFC Welterweight Champion, holds a slight edge due to his refined boxing, elite timing, and the significant home-crowd advantage in Perth. His ability to pressure opponents and mix powerful combinations to the head and body will be crucial. While Carlos Prates is a dangerous knockout artist with extensive Muay Thai experience, Della Maddalena's defensive boxing and rhythm disruption could neutralize Prates's aggressive approach. Della Maddalena is motivated to rebound from his recent title loss to Islam Makhachev and reclaim his top contender status. Prates's tendency to sometimes get off-balance could be exploited by JDM's precise striking and footwork.
SPREAD PREDICTION
Jack Della Maddalena -125 (-125)
65%
Jack Della Maddalena is currently a slight favorite at -125, reflecting his higher ranking, championship pedigree, and the home advantage in Perth. Despite Prates's undeniable knockout power and impressive recent form, JDM's overall technical striking and experience at the highest level of the division justify this narrow favoritism.
TOTAL PREDICTION
Under 3.5
60%
Both Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates are known for their finishing abilities, with a high percentage of their wins coming by knockout. Prates, in particular, has secured multiple early finishes in his UFC career. While Della Maddalena has gone the distance in recent championship bouts, the aggressive styles of both fighters make an early to mid-fight finish a strong possibility, leading to a lean towards the under 3.5 rounds.
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Method of Victory
Jack Della Maddalena by Decision
While both possess finishing power, Della Maddalena has gone to decision in tough fights against top contenders and has the cardio to push a five-round pace if he can't find the finish.
Method of Victory
Carlos Prates by TKO/KO
Carlos Prates has an exceptionally high finishing rate, with all six of his UFC wins coming by knockout, making this a highly plausible outcome given his aggressive striking.
Round Betting
Under 2.5 Rounds
With two powerful strikers and Prates's history of early finishes, there's a good chance the fight ends before the midpoint of the third round.
Fight Goes the Distance
No
Given the combined knockout power and aggressive fighting styles of both Della Maddalena and Prates, it is more likely than not that this fight ends inside the distance.
Fighter to Score a Knockdown
Carlos Prates
Prates possesses devastating power and regularly hurts opponents with his strikes. His aggressive style increases the likelihood of him landing a knockdown.
Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates โ Key Stats (AI)
Betting Angles โ Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates
โ ๏ธ Moneyline: Jack Della Maddalena
The model's probability for Della Maddalena to win is higher than the implied probability from the current odds, indicating a positive expected value on this pick.
โ ๏ธ Method of Victory: Jack Della Maddalena by TKO/KO
Given Della Maddalena's power and ability to break down opponents over longer fights, combined with Prates's aggressive style that can lead to openings, a TKO/KO victory for JDM presents good value.
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Initial odds suggest that sharp money has not significantly shifted the line dramatically in either direction, indicating a balanced perception of the fighters' chances. Line movement: Opening odds show Della Maddalena at -125 and Prates at -102, indicating a very tight initial line. Significant movement has not yet been reported, reflecting the evenly matched nature of the contest.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 320.00 (+31900)
AI Confidence: 58%
$10 โ $3200.00 | $25 โ $8000.00 | $50 โ $16000.00
Correlation: Positive correlation, as JDM winning more often correlates with a fight ending before the full five rounds, or him securing a finish/decision.
Risk Assessment
High Risk- โ ๏ธBoth fighters possess significant knockout power, meaning the fight could end suddenly for either competitor.
- โ ๏ธStylistic clash between boxing-heavy pressure (JDM) and aggressive Muay Thai (Prates) could lead to unpredictable exchanges.
- โ ๏ธPrates has a high finishing rate and can quickly exploit openings.
Model Confidence
โก68%
Data quality: High
Limitations
- โขLack of specific recent injury reports or detailed training camp insights beyond general news.
- โขBetting odds can fluctuate and the provided initial odds may have changed.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates โ FAQ
Jack Della Maddalena is fighting in his hometown of Perth, Australia, and is looking to bounce back from losing his UFC Welterweight Championship to Islam Makhachev. A win here is crucial for him to re-establish his claim for a title shot.