Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier Prediction

FIGHT WINNER

Islam Makhachev

Predicted: Islam Makhachev by Submission Round 4 or 5

⚡67%

This prediction is based on a hypothetical scenario for June 2, 2026, as Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier previously fought on June 1, 2024, at UFC 302, with Makhachev winning by D'arce choke in the fifth round. Furthermore, Dustin Poirier officially retired from MMA after a loss in July 2025. If this matchup were to occur in 2026, Islam Makhachev, the current UFC Welterweight Champion and former undisputed Lightweight Champion, would be the overwhelming favorite, boasting a #1 pound-for-pound ranking and an impressive 16-fight win streak. Makhachev's relentless Dagestani wrestling and elite Sambo skills, which include superior positional control and submission prowess, proved effective in their previous encounter, wearing down Poirier over five rounds. While Dustin Poirier is a highly skilled striker with a BJJ black belt and a reputation for power and resilience, his past defeat to Makhachev and his subsequent retirement suggest he would face an even steeper challenge against the dominant champion in a hypothetical comeback fight. Makhachev's ability to dictate the pace and location of the fight, combined with his ever-improving striking defense, would likely lead to another definitive victory.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Islam Makhachev -7.0 (Moneyline Equivalent) (-700)

67%

Given Islam Makhachev's historical dominance and his decisive submission victory over Dustin Poirier in their prior encounter at UFC 302, he is a significant favorite. His superior grappling and control would make him a strong pick to win comfortably, even if Poirier hypothetically returned from retirement. The -700 moneyline from their previous fight illustrates this significant advantage, implying a substantial handicap in Makhachev's favor.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 3.5

59%

Their previous encounter at UFC 302 lasted until 2:42 of the fifth round, demonstrating both fighters' durability and the grinding nature of a Makhachev fight, especially when facing a resilient striker like Poirier. While Makhachev is known for his finishes, Poirier's toughness and striking defense often extend fights, suggesting a hypothetical rematch would likely go beyond 3.5 rounds.

✅ Method of Victory: Islam Makhachev by Submission

Makhachev secured a D'arce choke submission against Poirier in their previous fight in the fifth round. With 13 submission victories in his career and a highly effective grappling-heavy style, a submission win remains the most probable outcome for Makhachev against Poirier, presenting value at these odds.

✅ Fight to go the distance?: No

Given Makhachev's high finishing rate (5 KOs, 13 submissions) and his previous finish of Poirier in the fifth round, it's highly likely a hypothetical rematch would also end inside the distance. Poirier, while durable, has also been finished multiple times in his career.

💰 Sharp Money

Sharp money would likely be placed on Islam Makhachev, particularly on him to win by submission or to finish the fight inside the distance, as these outcomes align with his fighting style and their historical matchup. Line movement: If this hypothetical fight were to be announced, Makhachev's moneyline would likely open as a significant favorite and could potentially widen as betting volume comes in, similar to the line movement observed in their initial bout.