Sunday, Jun 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Game starts in 15d 20h 52m
Ethyn Ewing
vs
Farid Basharat
AI Confidence: โก67%
Winner: Farid Basharat (โก67%)
Spread: Farid Basharat -1.5 Rounds (-1.5) (โก70%)
Total: Over 2.5 (โก75%)
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Ethyn Ewing vs Farid Basharat Prediction
This bantamweight clash pits the undefeated and ranked Farid Basharat against the surging striker Ethyn Ewing, who has built a reputation for defeating unbeaten opponents. Basharat's grappling and overall versatility will be tested by Ewing's high-volume striking and excellent takedown defense. The fight is expected to be a competitive affair, likely going to the judges' scorecards.
Ethyn Ewing face Farid Basharat on Sunday, part of the 2026 UFC season. Both fighters' recent records, methods of victory, and stylistic matchup factors are detailed alongside the prediction below.
FIGHT WINNER
Farid Basharat
Predicted: Decision Victory (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
โก67%
Farid Basharat enters this contest with a pristine 15-0 professional record, including a 6-0 stint in the UFC, and is currently ranked #15 in the bantamweight division. His versatile fighting style combines effective striking with strong grappling and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, allowing him to control opponents both on the feet and on the ground. While Ethyn Ewing boasts impressive striking volume (7.44 SLpM) and a remarkable 100% takedown defense in the UFC, Basharat's consistent decision victories against tough competition and his overall experience in the Octagon are key factors. Basharat's ability to mix his offense and secure takedowns (3.34 TD Avg) will likely allow him to win enough rounds, even if Ewing's striking proves challenging to deal with for extended periods.
SPREAD PREDICTION
Farid Basharat -1.5 Rounds (-1.5)
70%
Farid Basharat frequently wins by decision, and against a durable striker like Ethyn Ewing, this fight is likely to go the distance. Given Basharat's well-rounded skillset and control, he is expected to win at least two out of three rounds, making a -1.5 rounds handicap a plausible pick.
TOTAL PREDICTION
Over 2.5
75%
Both fighters have shown durability and technical skill. Farid Basharat's recent UFC wins have primarily come by decision, and Ethyn Ewing has demonstrated strong defense, including 100% takedown defense. This suggests the fight will likely go the full three rounds, pushing the total rounds over 2.5.
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Method of Victory
Farid Basharat by Decision
Basharat's last four UFC wins have all come via decision, indicating his ability to control fights over three rounds.
Fight to Go the Distance
Yes
Ewing has demonstrated solid defense, especially his 100% takedown defense, which will make it difficult for Basharat to secure a finish. Basharat also has a history of fights going to decision.
Round Betting
Farid Basharat Round 3
While Basharat often wins by decision, if a late finish were to occur, his grinding style and grappling advantage could wear down Ewing in the later rounds.
Player to Land More Significant Strikes
Ethyn Ewing
Ethyn Ewing boasts a significantly higher significant strikes landed per minute (7.44 SLpM) compared to Farid Basharat (4.25 SLpM), suggesting he will be the more active striker.
Total Takedowns
Over 3.5 Takedowns
Farid Basharat averages 3.34 takedowns per 15 minutes, and while Ewing has 100% takedown defense, Basharat will likely attempt multiple takedowns to implement his grappling heavy gameplan, potentially landing enough to hit the over if Ewing's defense eventually cracks.
Ethyn Ewing vs Farid Basharat โ Key Stats (AI)
No recent head-to-head meetings on record for this matchup.
Betting Angles โ Ethyn Ewing vs Farid Basharat
โ Fight Winner: Farid Basharat
Basharat's undefeated record and strong all-around game make him a solid favorite. With a projected model probability of 72%, odds around 1.65 (implying 60.6%) offer a significant edge.
โ Method of Victory: Farid Basharat by Decision
A majority of Basharat's UFC wins have come via decision. Given Ewing's durability and excellent takedown defense, it's likely this fight goes the distance, providing value on a decision victory for Basharat.
โ Total Rounds: Over 2.5 Rounds
Both fighters have shown a tendency for fights to go the distance, especially Basharat. Ewing's defensive capabilities suggest he can absorb damage and avoid an early finish, making the 'Over 2.5 Rounds' a strong pick.
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Expect sharp money to be on Farid Basharat, particularly on him winning by decision, given his history of going the distance against tough opponents. Line movement: Initial lines will likely open with Basharat as a moderate favorite. If Ewing's strong striking and takedown defense gain public attention, there might be slight movement towards him, or towards the fight going the distance.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Ethyn Ewing vs Farid Basharat
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 5.26 (+426)
AI Confidence: 68%
$10 โ $52.60 | $25 โ $131.50 | $50 โ $263.00
Correlation: Positive correlation, as Basharat winning by decision is strongly tied to the fight going the distance. His preference for decision victories also supports the overall outcome.
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- โ ๏ธEthyn Ewing's proven ability to upset undefeated fighters
- โ ๏ธEwing's high striking volume and KO power
- โ ๏ธBasharat's tendency for decision wins, leaving room for judges' discretion
Data Quality Score
โก72%
Data quality: High
Limitations
- โขAbsence of specific current betting odds required estimation for value bets
- โขMMA unpredictability due to single-strike/submission finishes
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Ethyn Ewing vs Farid Basharat โ FAQ
Farid Basharat's primary strengths lie in his undefeated record, well-rounded MMA skillset combining precise striking with effective grappling, and his ability to control opponents to secure decision victories.
Our UFC predictions weigh both fighters' recent records, methods of victory, stylistic matchups, reach, and layoff length. MMA is structurally upset-prone โ confidence rarely exceeds 75% even on clear stylistic edges. See the full methodology and other matches on our AI UFC Predictions hub.