Dom Mar Fan vs Kody Steele Prediction

FIGHT WINNER

Kody Steele

⚡75%

Dom Mar Fan (9-2-0) enters this bout with significant momentum, having recently won the Road to UFC Season 4 lightweight tournament by securing three consecutive decision victories, including his final win against Sangwook Kim on January 31, 2026. This demonstrates his ability to perform under pressure and go the distance in high-stakes fights. Mar Fan, an Australian lightweight, is described as an 'MMA grappler' with world-class grappling skills, good timing, and 'shootboxing' understanding. His professional record includes 1 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, and 5 decisions, with a notable striking accuracy of 56% and absorbing only 2.49 significant strikes per minute. His takedown accuracy stands at 50%, with a defense rate of 66%. Kody Steele (7-1-0) is a highly decorated grappler, a Combat Jiu-Jitsu world champion, and a BJJ black belt. He has shown knockout power in his regional career and on Dana White's Contender Series, securing his UFC contract with a TKO victory over Chasen Blair in October 2024. However, Steele is coming off his first professional loss, a unanimous decision to Rongzhu at UFC 312 in February 2025, which was also his UFC debut. While Steele aims to be a well-rounded fighter, his striking accuracy (32%) and significant strikes absorbed per minute (7.17) are less favorable compared to Mar Fan's. His reported 100% takedown defense in limited UFC stats is a strong point. This fight pits two high-level grapplers against each other. Mar Fan's recent activity and success in the Road to UFC tournament suggest he is in peak form and mentally prepared for his official UFC debut. His superior striking metrics and proven ability to win decisions against tough competition give him a slight edge. While Steele's grappling pedigree is undeniable, Mar Fan's past submission losses (twice to Quillan Salkilld) are a concern, but his overall game and momentum are stronger. I anticipate a closely contested fight where Mar Fan's well-rounded skills and recent competitive experience will allow him to edge out a decision victory.

METHOD OF VICTORY

Decision

Round: Round 3

75%

Dom Mar Fan (9-2-0) enters this bout with significant momentum, having recently won the Road to UFC Season 4 lightweight tournament by securing three consecutive decision victories, including his final win against Sangwook Kim on January 31, 2026. This demonstrates his ability to perform under pressure and go the distance in high-stakes fights. Mar Fan, an Australian lightweight, is described as an 'MMA grappler' with world-class grappling skills, good timing, and 'shootboxing' understanding. His professional record includes 1 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, and 5 decisions, with a notable striking accuracy of 56% and absorbing only 2.49 significant strikes per minute. His takedown accuracy stands at 50%, with a defense rate of 66%. Kody Steele (7-1-0) is a highly decorated grappler, a Combat Jiu-Jitsu world champion, and a BJJ black belt. He has shown knockout power in his regional career and on Dana White's Contender Series, securing his UFC contract with a TKO victory over Chasen Blair in October 2024. However, Steele is coming off his first professional loss, a unanimous decision to Rongzhu at UFC 312 in February 2025, which was also his UFC debut. While Steele aims to be a well-rounded fighter, his striking accuracy (32%) and significant strikes absorbed per minute (7.17) are less favorable compared to Mar Fan's. His reported 100% takedown defense in limited UFC stats is a strong point. This fight pits two high-level grapplers against each other. Mar Fan's recent activity and success in the Road to UFC tournament suggest he is in peak form and mentally prepared for his official UFC debut. His superior striking metrics and proven ability to win decisions against tough competition give him a slight edge. While Steele's grappling pedigree is undeniable, Mar Fan's past submission losses (twice to Quillan Salkilld) are a concern, but his overall game and momentum are stronger. I anticipate a closely contested fight where Mar Fan's well-rounded skills and recent competitive experience will allow him to edge out a decision victory.

💰 Sharp Money

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