Saturday, Jun 13, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC
Game starts in 21d 7h 46m
Charles Rosa
vs
Kevin Aguilar
AI Confidence: โก67%
Winner: Charles Rosa (โก67%)
Spread: Charles Rosa Moneyline (0) (โก74%)
Total: Over 2.5 (โก68%)
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Bet Charles Rosa ยท AI confidence 67%
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Charles Rosa vs Kevin Aguilar Prediction
This hypothetical matchup features Charles Rosa, who has remained active and successful in regional MMA promotions since his UFC release, against Kevin Aguilar, who has been inactive for over five years and was on a four-fight losing streak when he last competed in the UFC. Rosa's current form and fight readiness are expected to outweigh Aguilar's historical striking power, leading to a projected win for Rosa.
Charles Rosa face Kevin Aguilar on Saturday, part of the 2026 UFC season. Both fighters' recent records, methods of victory, and stylistic matchup factors are detailed alongside the prediction below.
FIGHT WINNER
Charles Rosa
Predicted: 30-27
โก67%
Charles Rosa (home) is predicted to win due to his maintained activity and recent success in regional promotions, accumulating four wins since late 2023, including three finishes, and holding a current lightweight championship. Kevin Aguilar (away), in contrast, has been inactive since May 2021, representing a significant layoff of over five years, and concluded his UFC tenure on a four-fight losing streak. Although their previous encounter in 2020 was a close split decision favoring Rosa, Aguilar's prolonged absence and prior struggles strongly suggest severe ring rust and a decline in competitive readiness, giving Rosa a substantial advantage in fight sharpness and momentum.
SPREAD PREDICTION
Charles Rosa Moneyline (0)
74%
Given the substantial disparity in recent activity and form, Charles Rosa is a strong moneyline favorite. A traditional points spread like -6.5 is not applicable in MMA, so the pick is based on the outright winner. Rosa's continuous competition outside the UFC and Aguilar's lengthy layoff significantly tip the scales in Rosa's favor.
TOTAL PREDICTION
Over 2.5
68%
Their previous fight went the distance to a split decision, indicating both fighters' durability. While Aguilar possesses knockout power, his long layoff introduces uncertainty regarding his ability to finish quickly. Rosa is also known for fights going to decision and has a strong submission defense, making it likely this hypothetical bout would extend past 2.5 rounds.
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Method of Victory
Charles Rosa by Decision
Rosa has won by decision previously against Aguilar, and many of his UFC fights have gone the distance. Aguilar's known durability (never submitted in pro career) makes a decision victory for Rosa a strong possibility.
Method of Victory
Charles Rosa by Submission
Rosa is a BJJ black belt with 11 career submission victories. While Aguilar has never been submitted in his professional career, his long layoff could make him more susceptible to grappling exchanges.
Method of Victory
Kevin Aguilar by KO/TKO
Aguilar has significant striking power with 10 career KOs, but his last UFC KO win was in 2010. Given his long layoff and Rosa's noted durability, an early KO by Aguilar is less probable but not impossible.
Round Betting
Fight to go the Distance - Yes
Their last fight went to a split decision, and both fighters have a history of decisions. Aguilar's ring rust and Rosa's defensive grappling could lead to a prolonged contest.
Total Rounds
Over 2.5 Rounds
Aligns with the 'Fight to go the Distance' pick, as a three-round fight going to decision would exceed 2.5 rounds. Neither fighter has a recent history of quick finishes in the UFC to suggest an 'under' is likely.
Charles Rosa vs Kevin Aguilar โ Key Stats (AI)
No recent head-to-head meetings on record for this matchup.
Betting Angles โ Charles Rosa vs Kevin Aguilar
โ Moneyline: Charles Rosa
Charles Rosa's prolonged activity and recent championship success outside the UFC make him a strong contender. If hypothetical odds were set at 1.50, there would be significant value compared to our model's probability of 74%, given Aguilar's extensive inactivity and previous losing streak.
โ Fight to go the Distance: Yes
Both fighters have a history of fights going to decision, and their prior encounter ended in a split decision. Despite Aguilar's KO ability, his ring rust after such a long layoff makes an early finish less probable. If 'Yes' to going the distance was offered at 1.90, it would represent a strong value bet.
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Hypothetically, sharp money would likely be on Charles Rosa given Kevin Aguilar's extended layoff and previous losing skid, making him a risky proposition. Line movement: If this fight were real, the line would likely move towards Rosa as more information about Aguilar's inactivity and potential ring rust became apparent. Current speculative lines would heavily favor Rosa.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Charles Rosa vs Kevin Aguilar
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 4.69 (+369)
AI Confidence: 65%
$10 โ $46.90 | $25 โ $117.25 | $50 โ $234.50
Correlation: Positive correlation exists as Rosa's victory by decision (or simply going the distance) is a likely scenario, and going to decision naturally means exceeding 2.5 rounds. Rosa is favored to win, and a longer fight duration increases the chances of him outpointing Aguilar or securing a late finish.
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- โ ๏ธMMA is inherently unpredictable; one punch or submission can end any fight instantly.
- โ ๏ธThis fight is hypothetical and not currently scheduled; actual circumstances could differ.
- โ ๏ธKevin Aguilar's long layoff introduces a high degree of uncertainty regarding his current form and skill level.
Data Quality Score
โก70%
Data quality: Medium
Limitations
- โขThe prediction is based on a hypothetical fight date (2026-06-13) for which no current fight-specific data (news, injuries, betting lines) exists.
- โขFighter form is inferred from historical data and activity in other promotions, not direct UFC performance for the specified date.
- โขBetting odds and implied probabilities are simulated due to the fight's hypothetical nature.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Charles Rosa vs Kevin Aguilar โ FAQ
Since leaving the UFC in August 2023, Charles Rosa has won his last four fights in regional promotions, including CES MMA and LeLeo Code MMA, with three finishes. His last official UFC bout was a unanimous decision loss in July 2022.
Our UFC predictions weigh both fighters' recent records, methods of victory, stylistic matchups, reach, and layoff length. MMA is structurally upset-prone โ confidence rarely exceeds 75% even on clear stylistic edges. See the full methodology and other matches on our AI UFC Predictions hub.