Charles Radtke vs Francisco Prado Prediction

FIGHT WINNER

Charles Radtke

Predicted: 29-28

⚡75%

Charles Radtke enters this bout as the betting favorite, boasting a 4-2 UFC record with a recent submission victory in November 2025. He is known for his well-rounded approach, capable of switching between striking and grappling, and possesses significant power in his hands. Francisco Prado, despite his youth at 23 and training at American Top Team, has a 1-4 UFC record and is currently on a three-fight losing streak, with concerns about his gas tank and power translating to the welterweight division. While Prado is durable, Radtke's superior grappling and consistent pressure are expected to secure him the win, likely via decision.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Charles Radtke -1.5 Rounds (-1.5)

70%

Given Charles Radtke is favored to win and is expected to control the fight through grappling and sustained pressure, a victory by at least 1.5 rounds (meaning winning at least two rounds in a three-round fight) is a reasonable expectation. Prado's tendency to fade and his recent decision losses suggest he struggles to win rounds consistently against seasoned UFC opponents.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 1.5

85%

The 'over 1.5 rounds' is heavily favored by betting lines (-212 to -215), indicating that the fight is likely to extend beyond the halfway point of the second round. Both fighters have shown durability, with all of Prado's UFC losses coming by decision, suggesting he can withstand punishment despite his gas tank issues. Radtke's last win was in the third round, further supporting the fight going long.

✅ Moneyline: Francisco Prado

While Radtke is the favorite, some projections place Radtke's winning probability lower (52.6%) than his implied odds (-180, 64.3%), creating value on Prado's moneyline at +145 (40.8% implied). Additionally, a historical trend shows younger fighters (Prado, 23, vs Radtke, 35) winning 71% of the time in fights with a decade-plus age difference, suggesting Prado's true probability could be higher.

✅ Method of Victory: Francisco Prado by Decision

Francisco Prado by Decision at +900 presents significant value, as one projection indicates a true probability of 18.3% (+446) for this outcome. All of Prado's UFC losses have been by decision, highlighting his durability, and if he can survive Radtke's offense and win enough rounds, this bet could pay off.

💰 Sharp Money

Some analytics suggest value on Francisco Prado's moneyline due to a higher projected win probability than implied odds, indicating potential sharp interest. Line movement: Charles Radtke's odds have settled around -180 to -165, while Francisco Prado remains the underdog at +145 to +153, with the Over 1.5 rounds moving to a strong favorite at -215.