Charles Radtke vs Carlos Prates Prediction

FIGHT WINNER

Carlos Prates

Predicted: KO/TKO Round 1

33%

Carlos Prates is heavily favored in this rematch, having previously knocked out Charles Radtke with a liver shot in the first round on this exact date two years ago. Since then, Prates has ascended to #2 in the UFC welterweight rankings and maintains a formidable striking record with 19 KO/TKO victories out of 24 professional wins. Radtke, while resilient and a Jiu-jitsu black belt, has a more varied recent record and faces a significant skill and ranking mismatch against a fighter who has already proven capable of finishing him decisively. Prates' superior striking accuracy (56% vs 53%) and defense (37% vs 54% for strikes absorbed) suggest he will control the stand-up exchanges and capitalize on his knockout power.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Carlos Prates Moneyline (-380)

80%

Given Carlos Prates' previous dominant victory over Charles Radtke and his current status as the #2 ranked welterweight, he is a strong moneyline favorite. His consistent string of knockout wins against higher-caliber opponents since their last encounter further solidifies his position as the clear pick. The perceived 'spread' reflects this significant advantage in skill and recent performance.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Under 1.5

75%

The first fight between these two ended in a first-round KO by Carlos Prates. Prates is known for his potent finishing ability, with 19 of his 24 wins coming by knockout. Given his aggressive striking and the clear power advantage he demonstrated in their initial bout, a quick finish under 1.5 rounds is a highly probable outcome in this rematch.

✅ Method of Victory: Carlos Prates by KO/TKO

Carlos Prates has a high percentage of wins by KO/TKO (19 out of 24), and he previously knocked out Radtke. My model indicates a higher probability of this outcome than the implied odds, suggesting a positive edge.

⚠️ Fight to Go the Distance: No

With Prates' history of finishes and the prior first-round knockout in this specific matchup, it's unlikely this fight will go the full three rounds. The model's probability of a finish is slightly higher than the market's implied odds.

✅ Round Betting: Under 1.5 Rounds

The previous bout between these fighters ended in the first round with Prates securing a KO. Prates consistently looks for early finishes, and a similar outcome is well within the realm of possibility here, providing a strong edge on the 'Under 1.5 Rounds' market.

💰 Sharp Money

Expected to be on Carlos Prates, particularly on KO/TKO props and unders. Line movement: If any, likely to see Prates' moneyline odds shorten further and 'Under' totals move downwards.