Carli Judice vs Gabriella Fernandes Prediction

FIGHT WINNER

Carli Judice

⚡67%

This is a compelling rematch between two flyweights who previously went the distance, with Gabriella Fernandes securing a split decision victory over Carli Judice on June 15, 2024. Since that fight, both fighters have continued to evolve. Carli Judice (6-2-0) has shown significant improvement, particularly in her finishing ability, securing two KO/TKO wins in 2025 and a unanimous decision victory in February 2026. She is known for her composure and finishing instinct, with 5 of her 6 wins coming by KO. Her striking accuracy is 50% with 9.32 significant strikes landed per minute, and a strong 80% takedown defense. Gabriella Fernandes (11-4-0) also has a strong record, but her most recent outing in March 2026 resulted in a first-round KO loss to Casey O'Neill. While she had a three-fight win streak prior to that loss, including a decision win over Julija Stoliarenko and a submission win over Cong Wang, the quick turnaround from a KO loss can be a significant factor. In their first encounter, Fernandes started aggressively, landing heavy shots and marking up Judice's face early. However, Judice began to change the momentum as Fernandes tired, and Judice was the fresher fighter in the third round, landing combinations and going to the body. The judges ultimately favored Fernandes in a close split decision. Considering Judice's recent improvements, her ability to absorb early pressure, and Fernandes's recent KO loss, Judice is likely to have adjusted her strategy from their first fight. Judice's higher striking volume (9.32 SLpM vs 3.51 SLpM) and slightly better striking defense (57% vs 53%) could be key. While Fernandes has a submission threat, Judice's takedown defense is solid. Judice will likely learn from her previous encounter, weather the early storm, and capitalize on Fernandes's potential fatigue or lingering effects from her last fight, leading to a decision victory in a closely contested bout.

METHOD OF VICTORY

Decision

Round: Round 3

67%

This is a compelling rematch between two flyweights who previously went the distance, with Gabriella Fernandes securing a split decision victory over Carli Judice on June 15, 2024. Since that fight, both fighters have continued to evolve. Carli Judice (6-2-0) has shown significant improvement, particularly in her finishing ability, securing two KO/TKO wins in 2025 and a unanimous decision victory in February 2026. She is known for her composure and finishing instinct, with 5 of her 6 wins coming by KO. Her striking accuracy is 50% with 9.32 significant strikes landed per minute, and a strong 80% takedown defense. Gabriella Fernandes (11-4-0) also has a strong record, but her most recent outing in March 2026 resulted in a first-round KO loss to Casey O'Neill. While she had a three-fight win streak prior to that loss, including a decision win over Julija Stoliarenko and a submission win over Cong Wang, the quick turnaround from a KO loss can be a significant factor. In their first encounter, Fernandes started aggressively, landing heavy shots and marking up Judice's face early. However, Judice began to change the momentum as Fernandes tired, and Judice was the fresher fighter in the third round, landing combinations and going to the body. The judges ultimately favored Fernandes in a close split decision. Considering Judice's recent improvements, her ability to absorb early pressure, and Fernandes's recent KO loss, Judice is likely to have adjusted her strategy from their first fight. Judice's higher striking volume (9.32 SLpM vs 3.51 SLpM) and slightly better striking defense (57% vs 53%) could be key. While Fernandes has a submission threat, Judice's takedown defense is solid. Judice will likely learn from her previous encounter, weather the early storm, and capitalize on Fernandes's potential fatigue or lingering effects from her last fight, leading to a decision victory in a closely contested bout.

💰 Sharp Money

Without current odds, it's difficult to gauge sharp money. However, given the rematch and recent performances, any early line favoring Fernandes might see sharp money come in on Judice. Line movement: N/A (Odds not available yet). If Judice opens as an underdog, expect significant line movement in her favor.