Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg, Canada vs Melissa Croden vs. Daria Zhelezniakova Prediction

FIGHT WINNER

Melissa Croden vs. Daria Zhelezniakova

⚡65%

Daria Zhelezniakova (10-2-0) enters this bout with a stronger professional record and a 2-1 UFC record, compared to Melissa Croden's (7-3-0) 1-1 UFC standing. Zhelezniakova has demonstrated higher significant striking volume (4.75 SLpM) and superior striking defense (68%) compared to Croden's 4.10 SLpM and 53% striking defense. While Croden boasts a perfect finishing rate in her wins (all 7 by stoppage), her losses have all come by decision, indicating her durability. Zhelezniakova's most recent UFC victory was a unanimous decision over Melissa Mullins in June 2025, showcasing her ability to control a fight over three rounds. Croden is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Luana Santos in December 2025, where Santos utilized a strong ground game. Although Croden has a higher takedown average and better takedown defense, Zhelezniakova has a 100% takedown accuracy, albeit on fewer attempts, and has shown some vulnerability to takedowns in past UFC fights. Given Zhelezniakova's overall consistency in the UFC, her striking advantages, and Croden's recent decision loss, Zhelezniakova is slightly favored to win by decision. The fight is likely to go the distance due to Croden's resilience and Zhelezniakova's tendency to go to decision in her recent fights.

METHOD OF VICTORY

Decision

Round: Full Fight (3 Rounds)

65%

Daria Zhelezniakova (10-2-0) enters this bout with a stronger professional record and a 2-1 UFC record, compared to Melissa Croden's (7-3-0) 1-1 UFC standing. Zhelezniakova has demonstrated higher significant striking volume (4.75 SLpM) and superior striking defense (68%) compared to Croden's 4.10 SLpM and 53% striking defense. While Croden boasts a perfect finishing rate in her wins (all 7 by stoppage), her losses have all come by decision, indicating her durability. Zhelezniakova's most recent UFC victory was a unanimous decision over Melissa Mullins in June 2025, showcasing her ability to control a fight over three rounds. Croden is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Luana Santos in December 2025, where Santos utilized a strong ground game. Although Croden has a higher takedown average and better takedown defense, Zhelezniakova has a 100% takedown accuracy, albeit on fewer attempts, and has shown some vulnerability to takedowns in past UFC fights. Given Zhelezniakova's overall consistency in the UFC, her striking advantages, and Croden's recent decision loss, Zhelezniakova is slightly favored to win by decision. The fight is likely to go the distance due to Croden's resilience and Zhelezniakova's tendency to go to decision in her recent fights.

💰 Sharp Money

No significant sharp money movements have been reported yet, as odds are still emerging for this specific fight. Early indications suggest a lean towards Zhelezniakova. Line movement: Current available information shows no recorded line movement, as the fight is scheduled for today and odds are still being finalized or are not widely published yet. Some early prediction markets show Zhelezniakova at 58% to win and Croden at 42%.