Saturday, May 2, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC
Game starts in 4d 6h 30m
Ben Johnston
vs
Wes Schultz
AI Confidence: 59%
Winner: Ben Johnston (59%)
Spread: Ben Johnston -1.5 Rounds (-1.5) (59%)
Total: Under 2.5 (58%)
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Bet Ben Johnston ยท AI confidence 59%
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Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz Prediction
This middleweight bout features Australian debutant Ben Johnston, a decorated Muay Thai specialist with a high finishing rate, against Wes Schultz, a wrestling-based fighter looking to bounce back from a debut TKO loss. Johnston enters with significant momentum and home-crowd support, while Schultz seeks to establish himself in the UFC.
FIGHT WINNER
Ben Johnston
Predicted: KO/TKO in Round 2
59%
Ben Johnston, making his highly anticipated UFC debut on home soil, brings a formidable Muay Thai background and a 5-1 professional MMA record with a four-fight stoppage streak. His aggressive striking style and a 90% finish rate across his combat sports career highlight his dangerous offensive capabilities. Wes Schultz, with an 8-3 record and a wrestling base, is looking to rebound from a first-round TKO loss in his UFC debut in February 2026, which puts him under significant pressure. While Schultz possesses a two-inch reach advantage and grappling prowess, Johnston's momentum, elite training with City Kickboxing, and the home crowd advantage in Perth are expected to give him a decisive edge. Johnston's finishing ability is likely to capitalize on Schultz's recent vulnerability and secure a stoppage victory.
SPREAD PREDICTION
Ben Johnston -1.5 Rounds (-1.5)
59%
Given Ben Johnston's strong finishing rate and aggressive striking style, coupled with Wes Schultz's recent first-round TKO loss, picking Johnston to win by at least 1.5 rounds (implying a finish in the first two rounds or a dominant decision victory) is a reasonable selection. His debut momentum and home advantage further support an early or clear victory.
TOTAL PREDICTION
Under 2.5
58%
Both Ben Johnston and Wes Schultz have a history of finishes in their careers. Johnston's 90% finish rate and Schultz's recent TKO loss in his UFC debut suggest a high likelihood of this fight ending before the judges' scorecards. The urgency for Schultz to make a statement and Johnston's aggressive debut could lead to an early stoppage.
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Fight to go the Distance
No
Both fighters have demonstrated finishing capabilities, and Wes Schultz's recent TKO loss suggests a vulnerability to early stoppages. Ben Johnston's aggressive style further points towards a fight that will not reach the judges' scorecards.
Round Betting
Ben Johnston Round 2
While Johnston is a strong finisher, it's his UFC debut, and he might take a round to gauge his opponent. Schultz showed resilience in earning his Contender Series contract, but his recent TKO loss suggests he can be stopped. Round 2 offers a good balance between an early finish and allowing for initial adjustments.
Ben Johnston Total Takedowns
Under 0.5
Ben Johnston is primarily a Muay Thai specialist known for his striking, not his wrestling. While he has a BJJ brown belt, his preference is to stand and strike. Wes Schultz is a wrestler by trade, making takedowns a less likely strategy for Johnston.
Wes Schultz Total Significant Strikes Landed
Under 4.5
Wes Schultz absorbed significant strikes in his UFC debut, leading to a quick TKO loss. If Ben Johnston's striking pressure is effective from the start, Schultz might struggle to land a high volume of significant strikes before potentially being overwhelmed.
Winner and Method
Ben Johnston by KO/TKO
Combining Johnston's power striking and high finish rate with Schultz's recent TKO loss, a victory for Johnston via knockout or technical knockout is a highly plausible outcome for this matchup.
Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz โ Key Stats (AI)
Betting Angles โ Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz
โ ๏ธ Moneyline: Ben Johnston
Based on Kalshi's implied probability of 66% for Ben Johnston, and assuming illustrative bookmaker odds of 1.60, there is a positive edge as our model indicates a higher chance of victory. Johnston's finishing power and home advantage make him a strong pick.
โ Method of Victory: Ben Johnston by KO/TKO
Ben Johnston boasts a 90% finish rate in his combat sports career and is known for his aggressive striking. Wes Schultz suffered a first-round TKO loss in his recent UFC debut. Our model sees a higher likelihood of Johnston securing a KO/TKO finish than the assumed market odds, creating a significant edge.
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Information on sharp money movements is not available in the provided search results. Line movement: Specific line movement data is not available in the provided search results; however, Johnston is consistently listed as the favorite across available markets.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 5.80 (+480)
AI Confidence: 55%
$10 โ $58.00 | $25 โ $145.00 | $50 โ $290.00
Correlation: Positive correlation, as Johnston winning early by stoppage aligns with the fight not going the distance and a win in the first two rounds. This parlay leverages Johnston's finishing ability.
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- โ ๏ธJohnston making his UFC debut, which can bring unpredictable performance pressure.
- โ ๏ธSchultz's strong wrestling background could pose a challenge if he can secure takedowns and control.
- โ ๏ธMMA's inherent unpredictability, where a single strike or submission can alter the fight instantly.
- โ ๏ธSchultz will be highly motivated to avoid a second consecutive UFC loss.
Model Confidence
โก65%
Data quality: High
Limitations
- โขAbsence of specific bookmaker decimal odds in search results required illustrative odds for value bets and SGP. These are not directly sourced and are for demonstrative purposes only.
- โขNo detailed striking or grappling statistics (e.g., significant strike defense, takedown accuracy) available for Johnston from official UFC sources due to his debut status.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Illustrative odds for value bets and Same Game Parlay were generated based on implied probabilities as specific bookmaker lines were not explicitly provided in the search results.
Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz โ FAQ
The fight between Ben Johnston and Wes Schultz is scheduled for Saturday, May 2, 2026, at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, as part of a UFC Fight Night event.