Azamat Murzakanov vs Paulo Costa Prediction

FIGHT WINNER

Paulo Costa

⚡88%

Azamat Murzakanov enters this co-main event as an undefeated light heavyweight with a perfect 16-0 record, including six consecutive wins in the UFC, five of which have come by knockout. He has demonstrated consistent power and finishing ability, with 12 of his wins by KO and 10 first-round finishes in his career. His recent first-round knockout of Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 321 in October 2025 further solidifies his standing as a dangerous striker. Paulo Costa, while a formidable former middleweight contender, is making his official light heavyweight debut, a move that often presents challenges in adapting to the power and size of natural 205-pound fighters. Although he has fought at light heavyweight once before (a loss to Marvin Vettori after missing weight), his recent record at middleweight has been inconsistent, going 2-3 in his last five fights. His last win was a unanimous decision over Roman Kopylov in July 2025, but this followed losses to top middleweights Sean Strickland and Robert Whittaker. Murzakanov's consistent activity and dominant finishes in the light heavyweight division, combined with Costa's move up in weight and history of fight cancellations due to injuries and other issues, give 'The Professional' a significant advantage. While Costa possesses power and a durable chin, Murzakanov's relentless pressure and one-punch knockout ability are likely to overwhelm Costa as he adjusts to the new weight class. Murzakanov has expressed his intent to hunt for a finish and not leave it to the judges. Given Costa's aggressive style, he is likely to engage, which plays into Murzakanov's strengths. The fight is expected to go past the first round, but Murzakanov's power should find its mark in the second.

METHOD OF VICTORY

KO/TKO

Round: Round 2

88%

Azamat Murzakanov enters this co-main event as an undefeated light heavyweight with a perfect 16-0 record, including six consecutive wins in the UFC, five of which have come by knockout. He has demonstrated consistent power and finishing ability, with 12 of his wins by KO and 10 first-round finishes in his career. His recent first-round knockout of Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 321 in October 2025 further solidifies his standing as a dangerous striker. Paulo Costa, while a formidable former middleweight contender, is making his official light heavyweight debut, a move that often presents challenges in adapting to the power and size of natural 205-pound fighters. Although he has fought at light heavyweight once before (a loss to Marvin Vettori after missing weight), his recent record at middleweight has been inconsistent, going 2-3 in his last five fights. His last win was a unanimous decision over Roman Kopylov in July 2025, but this followed losses to top middleweights Sean Strickland and Robert Whittaker. Murzakanov's consistent activity and dominant finishes in the light heavyweight division, combined with Costa's move up in weight and history of fight cancellations due to injuries and other issues, give 'The Professional' a significant advantage. While Costa possesses power and a durable chin, Murzakanov's relentless pressure and one-punch knockout ability are likely to overwhelm Costa as he adjusts to the new weight class. Murzakanov has expressed his intent to hunt for a finish and not leave it to the judges. Given Costa's aggressive style, he is likely to engage, which plays into Murzakanov's strengths. The fight is expected to go past the first round, but Murzakanov's power should find its mark in the second.

💰 Sharp Money

Sharp money appears to be on Murzakanov, as his odds have remained consistently in his favor. The 'Over/Under 1.5 rounds' being heavily juiced to the over (-260) suggests that while Murzakanov is expected to win, a quick first-round finish is not the most anticipated outcome, despite his history of early stoppages. Line movement: Initial odds favored Murzakanov at -194, and he has since moved to as high as -215, indicating further confidence in him as the fight approaches. This line movement suggests that the market is increasingly backing Murzakanov, possibly due to his consistent performances and Costa's divisional change.