Friday, May 22, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Game starts in 1d 4h 8m
Azamat Bakytov
vs
Thomas David
AI Confidence: โก67%
Winner: Thomas David (โก67%)
Spread: Thomas David by Submission (null) (โก78%)
Total: Under 2.5 (โก70%)
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Azamat Bakytov vs Thomas David Prediction
This UFC BJJ 8 Middleweight bout pits a highly decorated Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist, Thomas David, against an experienced MMA fighter, Azamat Bakytov. David's elite grappling credentials and stated confidence in a submission win give him a significant advantage under pure BJJ rules, suggesting a dominant performance.
Azamat Bakytov face Thomas David on Friday, part of the 2026 UFC BJJ season. Both fighters' recent records, methods of victory, and stylistic matchup factors are detailed alongside the prediction below.
FIGHT WINNER
Thomas David
Predicted: Submission in Round 2
โก67%
Thomas David is a highly decorated BJJ Black Belt and former world-ranked #6, holding multiple Asian, Pan Pacific, and National titles in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He has explicitly stated confidence in submitting Azamat Bakytov, describing Bakytov as an 'MMA style kind of dude' rather than a specialized BJJ grappler. Bakytov, while a successful MMA fighter with a boxing and sambo/judo background, lacks the elite, specialized BJJ credentials of David. In a pure UFC BJJ ruleset, which prioritizes effective submission attempts and positional control, Thomas David's specialized skill set is expected to dominate and secure a finish.
SPREAD PREDICTION
Thomas David by Submission (0)
78%
Given Thomas David's elite BJJ black belt status and his direct statement predicting a submission victory, a finish by submission is the most probable outcome against an opponent primarily from an MMA background. The UFC BJJ scoring system awards effective submission attempts with the highest value, further favoring a submission specialist like David.
TOTAL PREDICTION
Under 2.5
70%
With Thomas David's strong BJJ pedigree and his own prediction of a submission win in Round 2, the fight is highly likely to conclude before the start of the third round. This makes betting 'under 2.5 rounds' a strong probability for this UFC BJJ contest.
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Method of Victory
Thomas David by Submission
Thomas David's BJJ prowess and his expressed intent to finish the fight by submission make this a highly probable outcome. The UFC BJJ ruleset rewards effective submission attempts highest, aligning with David's specialized skill set.
Round Betting
Thomas David wins in Round 2
Based on Thomas David's direct prediction of a Round 2 submission, this specific outcome carries reasonable confidence. While grapplers aim for early finishes, the first round can often involve feeling out the opponent.
Fight to Go the Distance
No
Given the prediction of a submission victory for Thomas David, the fight is not expected to reach the judges' scorecards. This aligns with the 'under 2.5 rounds' pick.
First to Score Points
Thomas David
As the elite grappler, Thomas David is expected to initiate offensive grappling techniques like takedowns or guard passes early, giving him a high probability of scoring the first points in the match.
Handicap Betting
Thomas David -4.5 points
If the fight goes to a decision, Thomas David's superior BJJ technique and positional control should allow him to accumulate a significant point advantage over Azamat Bakytov, covering a -4.5 point handicap.
Azamat Bakytov vs Thomas David โ Key Stats (AI)
No recent head-to-head meetings on record for this matchup.
Betting Angles โ Azamat Bakytov vs Thomas David
โ Moneyline: Thomas David
Thomas David, a former world-ranked #6 BJJ black belt, is significantly more credentialed in pure grappling than Azamat Bakytov, an MMA fighter. Despite some betting lines indicating Bakytov as a slight favorite, our model, based on specialized BJJ expertise, assigns a much higher probability (78%) to David winning, creating substantial value at odds of 1.87 (equivalent to -115 American odds).
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Conflicting lines suggest potential uncertainty among oddsmakers, but the deeper analysis of BJJ credentials points towards Thomas David. Line movement: No clear significant line movement was found, but the disparity in initial odds (some favoring Bakytov, others David) suggests an evolving market.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Azamat Bakytov vs Thomas David
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 6.17 (+517)
AI Confidence: 70%
$10 โ $61.70 | $25 โ $154.25 | $50 โ $308.50
Correlation: These legs are positively correlated, as a submission victory for Thomas David inherently means the fight will not go the distance and he will win. Thomas David's specialized BJJ skillset makes a submission a highly likely outcome.
Risk Assessment
Low Risk- โ ๏ธAzamat Bakytov's strength and scrappiness from his MMA background could pose defensive challenges.
- โ ๏ธUnpredictability inherent in grappling matches, where one mistake can lead to a quick submission.
- โ ๏ธPotential for the fight to go to decision, where judging could be subjective.
Data Quality Score
โก80%
Data quality: High
Limitations
- โขLimited public BJJ-specific match history for Azamat Bakytov directly against elite BJJ specialists.
- โขReliance on Thomas David's self-assessment for outcome prediction, though his BJJ credentials support it.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Azamat Bakytov vs Thomas David โ FAQ
UFC BJJ matches use a 10-point-must scoring system, rewarding effective submission attempts (highest value), offensive techniques like takedowns, guard passes, and sweeps, and duration of control. Points are awarded for holding dominant positions for three consecutive seconds.
Our UFC predictions weigh both fighters' recent records, methods of victory, stylistic matchups, reach, and layoff length. MMA is structurally upset-prone โ confidence rarely exceeds 75% even on clear stylistic edges. See the full methodology and other matches on our AI UFC Predictions hub.