Monday, Jun 15, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC
Game starts in 21d 5h 47m
Asu Almabayev
vs
Jose Johnson
AI Confidence: โก67%
Winner: Asu Almabayev (โก67%)
Method: Decision
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Bet Asu Almabayev ยท AI confidence 67%
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Asu Almabayev vs Jose Johnson Prediction
Asu Almabayev is predicted to defeat Jose Johnson in their rematch, primarily due to his superior grappling and a proven track record against Johnson.
Asu Almabayev face Jose Johnson on Monday, part of the 2026 UFC season. Both fighters' recent records, methods of victory, and stylistic matchup factors are detailed alongside the prediction below.
FIGHT WINNER
Asu Almabayev
โก67%
Asu Almabayev previously defeated Jose Johnson via unanimous decision on June 15, 2024, demonstrating clear grappling superiority by securing six takedowns and maintaining over 11 minutes of control time. Almabayev (23-3) has continued to perform at a high level since then, securing a submission win over former title challenger Alex Perez in November 2025 and multiple decision victories. While he did suffer a TKO loss to Manel Kape in March 2025 and withdrew from a February 2026 fight due to a hand injury, assuming he is fit to compete on the specified date, his dominant grappling style remains a significant advantage. Johnson (16-10) is a tall, long striker with a significant reach advantage (71 inches to Almabayev's 65 inches) and a Muay Thai background. However, in their first encounter, he was unable to keep Almabayev off him and subsequently suffered another submission loss to Felipe Bunes in January 2025. Almabayev's relentless pressure, wrestling, and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills are expected to once again neutralize Johnson's striking and control the fight on the ground, leading to another decision victory.
METHOD OF VICTORY
Decision
Round: N/A
67%
Asu Almabayev previously defeated Jose Johnson via unanimous decision on June 15, 2024, demonstrating clear grappling superiority by securing six takedowns and maintaining over 11 minutes of control time. Almabayev (23-3) has continued to perform at a high level since then, securing a submission win over former title challenger Alex Perez in November 2025 and multiple decision victories. While he did suffer a TKO loss to Manel Kape in March 2025 and withdrew from a February 2026 fight due to a hand injury, assuming he is fit to compete on the specified date, his dominant grappling style remains a significant advantage. Johnson (16-10) is a tall, long striker with a significant reach advantage (71 inches to Almabayev's 65 inches) and a Muay Thai background. However, in their first encounter, he was unable to keep Almabayev off him and subsequently suffered another submission loss to Felipe Bunes in January 2025. Almabayev's relentless pressure, wrestling, and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills are expected to once again neutralize Johnson's striking and control the fight on the ground, leading to another decision victory.
Asu Almabayev vs Jose Johnson โ Key Stats (AI)
No recent head-to-head meetings on record for this matchup.
Betting Angles โ Asu Almabayev vs Jose Johnson
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Sharp money would likely be placed on Almabayev, particularly on props related to him winning by decision or potentially by submission, given his grappling prowess. There might be some speculative money on Johnson if his striking is perceived to have improved significantly or if there are concerns about Almabayev's recovery from injury. Line movement: If initial lines were close, strong early action on Almabayev would likely cause his odds to shorten. Any news regarding Johnson's improved takedown defense or striking form could slightly shift the line, but a substantial movement away from Almabayev would be unexpected given their history.
Risk Assessment
Specific risk factors for this matchup are evaluated as data populates. Whatever the model output, factor your own bankroll discipline โ single-match outcomes are noisy by nature, and even high-confidence picks miss often enough to matter.
Data Quality Score
โก75%
Data quality: High. Extensive recent fight data, historical head-to-head results, and detailed fighter statistics are available for both athletes.
Limitations
- โขThe fight date (June 15, 2026) provided in the prompt is exactly two years after their first fight and conflicts with recent news of Asu Almabayev's hand injury in February 2026 and his scheduled fight against Charles Johnson on June 27, 2026. This prediction assumes the fight proceeds as stated in the prompt despite these external, real-world scheduling conflicts and injury reports.
- โขThe exact impact of Almabayev's recent hand injury on his performance in this hypothetical fight is unknown, though the prediction assumes he is fully recovered if the fight were to occur.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Asu Almabayev vs Jose Johnson โ FAQ
Asu Almabayev defeated Jose Johnson via unanimous decision on June 15, 2024, at UFC on ESPN 58. Almabayev dominated the fight with his grappling, securing multiple takedowns and maintaining significant control time.
Our UFC predictions weigh both fighters' recent records, methods of victory, stylistic matchups, reach, and layoff length. MMA is structurally upset-prone โ confidence rarely exceeds 75% even on clear stylistic edges. See the full methodology and other matches on our AI UFC Predictions hub.