Friday, May 22, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Game starts in 1d 4h 8m
Andy Varela
vs
Jett Thompson
AI Confidence: ⚡67%
Winner: Andy Varela (⚡67%)
Method: Submission
Get $5 Free Bet — No Deposit Required
Bet Andy Varela · AI confidence 67%
18+ · Play Responsibly · Predictify Sports may earn commission · Affiliate disclosure
Andy Varela vs Jett Thompson Prediction
A high-stakes grappling rematch between Andy Varela and Jett Thompson at UFC BJJ 8. Varela, a 10th Planet black belt, previously defeated Thompson in the PGF Season 6 finals. Thompson, a young phenom, enters with strong recent form and an impressive finish rate.
Andy Varela face Jett Thompson on Friday, part of the 2026 UFC BJJ season. Both fighters' recent records, methods of victory, and stylistic matchup factors are detailed alongside the prediction below.
FIGHT WINNER
Andy Varela
⚡67%
This is a highly anticipated grappling rematch between two accomplished BJJ practitioners. Andy Varela, a seasoned 10th Planet black belt, previously defeated Jett Thompson in the PGF Season 6 finals. Varela is known for his aggressive, wrestling-heavy grappling style, excellent guard passing, and dangerous front headlock chokes and back attacks, with the Rear Naked Choke being a signature finish. His experience and black belt status give him a technical edge. While he did suffer a recent submission loss to Andy Murasaki in February 2026, Murasaki is an elite grappler, and Varela's overall record and championship pedigree remain strong. Jett Thompson, despite being younger (around 19 years old now, was a 17-year-old brown belt in 2024), is an incredibly talented grappler with a remarkable 31-2-18 PGF record and a 74.2% finish rate. He is currently on a two-win streak, with his last victory in April 2026, indicating strong recent form. Thompson's ability to finish quickly and his impressive defensive record of zero submission losses in PGF are significant. However, Varela's previous victory over Thompson, combined with his high-level submission game and experience against top-tier opponents, suggests he has the tools to replicate his success. Varela's relentless pressure and opportunistic grappling style, particularly his ability to take the back and secure chokes, will likely be the difference-maker against Thompson, who, despite his defensive prowess, has shown he can be put in compromised positions by Varela. The fight is expected to be competitive, but Varela's experience and specific submission threats give him the edge.
METHOD OF VICTORY
Submission
Round: Round 3
67%
This is a highly anticipated grappling rematch between two accomplished BJJ practitioners. Andy Varela, a seasoned 10th Planet black belt, previously defeated Jett Thompson in the PGF Season 6 finals. Varela is known for his aggressive, wrestling-heavy grappling style, excellent guard passing, and dangerous front headlock chokes and back attacks, with the Rear Naked Choke being a signature finish. His experience and black belt status give him a technical edge. While he did suffer a recent submission loss to Andy Murasaki in February 2026, Murasaki is an elite grappler, and Varela's overall record and championship pedigree remain strong. Jett Thompson, despite being younger (around 19 years old now, was a 17-year-old brown belt in 2024), is an incredibly talented grappler with a remarkable 31-2-18 PGF record and a 74.2% finish rate. He is currently on a two-win streak, with his last victory in April 2026, indicating strong recent form. Thompson's ability to finish quickly and his impressive defensive record of zero submission losses in PGF are significant. However, Varela's previous victory over Thompson, combined with his high-level submission game and experience against top-tier opponents, suggests he has the tools to replicate his success. Varela's relentless pressure and opportunistic grappling style, particularly his ability to take the back and secure chokes, will likely be the difference-maker against Thompson, who, despite his defensive prowess, has shown he can be put in compromised positions by Varela. The fight is expected to be competitive, but Varela's experience and specific submission threats give him the edge.
Andy Varela vs Jett Thompson — Key Stats (AI)
No recent head-to-head meetings on record for this matchup.
Betting Angles — Andy Varela vs Jett Thompson
💰 Sharp Money
N/A (Odds not available) Line movement: N/A (Odds not available)
Risk Assessment
Specific risk factors for this matchup are evaluated as data populates. Whatever the model output, factor your own bankroll discipline — single-match outcomes are noisy by nature, and even high-confidence picks miss often enough to matter.
Data Quality Score
⚡75%
Data quality: High. Extensive recent fight data and detailed profiles for both grapplers were found, including specific event results and fighting styles. The fact that this is a rematch with a known outcome from a previous event adds significant data quality.
Limitations
- •Lack of specific odds to compare against model's prediction.
- •Thompson's exact current belt rank is not explicitly stated, only that he was a brown belt in 2024. While his PGF success implies high skill, the black belt status of Varela is a clear advantage.
- •Details on potential injuries or specific training camps for this particular event are not available.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Andy Varela vs Jett Thompson — FAQ
This is a highly anticipated grappling rematch between Andy Varela and Jett Thompson. Varela previously defeated Thompson in the PGF Season 6 finals, making this a chance for Thompson to avenge that loss or for Varela to solidify his dominance.
Our UFC predictions weigh both fighters' recent records, methods of victory, stylistic matchups, reach, and layoff length. MMA is structurally upset-prone — confidence rarely exceeds 75% even on clear stylistic edges. See the full methodology and other matches on our AI UFC Predictions hub.