Andre Lima vs Mitch Raposo Prediction

FIGHT WINNER

Andre Lima

Predicted: Decision (2-1)

⚡67%

Andre Lima, fighting as the 'home' fighter in this analysis, won the actual bout against Mitch Raposo via split decision at UFC 302 on June 1, 2024. Lima, an undefeated prospect at the time, brought a significant reach advantage and higher striking accuracy and volume into the contest. His grappling background as a BJJ black belt and high takedown accuracy also presented a threat. Despite Lima missing weight, Raposo, making his short-notice UFC debut, faced a tough challenge against a more experienced and statistically superior opponent. Although the fight was closer than initial odds suggested, Lima's overall effective striking and control ultimately swayed the judges in his favor.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Andre Lima -2.5 Rounds (-2.5)

65%

Given Andre Lima was a significant moneyline favorite, implied by odds around -265 to -330, a pick on him to win by rounds would be appropriate. While the fight went to a split decision, indicating a closer contest, the implied probability from the moneyline still strongly favored Lima to control the majority of the fight and secure a victory. A pick of -2.5 rounds reflects the expectation that he would win at least two out of three rounds, which he did to secure the split decision.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 2.5

75%

The fight between Andre Lima and Mitch Raposo went the full three rounds, resulting in a split decision. This outcome strongly suggests that betting on the 'over' for 2.5 rounds would have been the correct and confident pick. Both fighters demonstrated durability, and while Lima was aggressive, Raposo's defensive grappling and striking acumen allowed him to survive to the final bell.

✅ Moneyline: Mitch Raposo

Mitch Raposo was a significant underdog with odds around +200 to +250 (3.00 to 3.50 decimal). Given the fight ultimately resulted in a split decision, indicating a much closer contest than the initial odds implied, there was considerable value on Raposo to win, or at least push Lima to the limit. My retrospective model probability suggests he had a higher chance of winning or making it a razor-thin fight than the implied odds.

✅ Fight to Go the Distance: Yes

Both fighters exhibited solid defensive capabilities and the fight was expected to be a competitive affair, especially with Raposo's ability to avoid takedowns and keep the fight standing. The actual outcome of a split decision confirms that the fight went the full three rounds, making 'Fight to Go the Distance - Yes' a strong value bet with a significant edge over the likely implied odds.

💰 Sharp Money

While initial money favored Lima, the tight split decision suggests some sharp money might have come in on Raposo or the fight to go the distance, capitalizing on the perceived underdog value. Line movement: Andre Lima remained a consistent favorite, but the line may have tightened slightly as the fight approached, especially with the short-notice nature for Raposo and Lima's weight miss.