Saturday, Jun 20, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
Game starts in 15d 17h 51m
Allan Nascimento
vs
Mitch Raposo
AI Confidence: โก67%
Winner: Allan Nascimento (โก67%)
Spread: Allan Nascimento -2.5 Rounds (-2.5) (โก75%)
Total: Under 2.5 (โก70%)
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Bet Allan Nascimento ยท AI confidence 67%
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Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo Prediction
Allan Nascimento enters this flyweight bout as a strong favorite, bringing a significant advantage in UFC experience and a proven submission game. His current four-fight win streak highlights his dangerous form. Mitch Raposo, despite a recent UFC win, faces a steep challenge against Nascimento's elite grappling and finishing ability.
Allan Nascimento face Mitch Raposo on Saturday, part of the 2026 UFC season. Both fighters' recent records, methods of victory, and stylistic matchup factors are detailed alongside the prediction below.
FIGHT WINNER
Allan Nascimento
Predicted: Submission Round 2
โก67%
Allan Nascimento is the more experienced and successful UFC fighter, boasting a 4-1 record in the promotion and currently riding a four-fight win streak. He is a highly accomplished Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with a strong submission game, evident in his recent Anaconda Choke victory over Cody Durden in November 2025 and 1.1 submission average in the UFC. Mitch Raposo, while a resilient fighter and BJJ black belt himself, holds a 1-2 UFC record and has struggled to find consistent finishing power in the octagon. Nascimento's superior grappling offense and recent form suggest a high probability of him controlling the fight and potentially securing a finish.
SPREAD PREDICTION
Allan Nascimento -2.5 Rounds (-2.5)
75%
Allan Nascimento is a significant favorite based on his strong UFC record and submission prowess. A -2.5 round spread suggests he is expected to win by a clear decision (winning all three rounds) or secure a finish, which aligns with his recent submission victories in Round 1 and Round 2. Raposo's UFC losses have been by decision, indicating he can be outscored over three rounds.
TOTAL PREDICTION
Under 2.5
70%
Nascimento has demonstrated a strong finishing instinct, with two of his last four UFC wins coming by submission in the first two rounds. While Raposo has shown durability in his decision fights, Nascimento's aggressive grappling and submission threat make an early finish plausible. The fight is likely to conclude before the judges' scorecards are needed.
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Method of Victory
Allan Nascimento by Submission
Nascimento has 15 career submission wins and his last two UFC victories were by submission, showcasing his high-level grappling and finishing ability on the ground.
Round Betting
Allan Nascimento to win in Round 2
Considering Nascimento's consistent pressure and submission threats, a finish in the second round is a strong possibility, as seen in his last fight against Cody Durden.
Fight to go the Distance
No
Nascimento's high submission average of 1.1 and recent finishes indicate a strong likelihood of the fight ending before the judges' scorecards.
Any Time Finish
Allan Nascimento by KO/TKO or Submission
Nascimento is a dangerous finisher, primarily with submissions. While Raposo has been durable, Nascimento's aggressive style often leads to stoppages.
First Round Finish
No
While Nascimento has a first-round submission on his UFC record, Raposo's resilience in his recent fights suggests he can weather an early storm.
Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo โ Key Stats (AI)
No recent head-to-head meetings on record for this matchup.
Betting Angles โ Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Information not publicly available, but market sentiment (Forebet 69% for Nascimento, Kalshi 65% for Nascimento) suggests smart money is on the favorite. Line movement: No specific line movement data found, but the initial perception places Nascimento as a clear favorite.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 5.68 (+468)
AI Confidence: 70%
$10 โ $56.80 | $25 โ $142.00 | $50 โ $284.00
Correlation: Positive correlation, as a Nascimento submission win often leads to the fight ending under 2.5 rounds.
Risk Assessment
Low Risk- โ ๏ธMMA unpredictability (one punch/submission)
- โ ๏ธRaposo's resilience to push fights to decision
- โ ๏ธPotential for a tactical grappling match nullifying finishes
Data Quality Score
โก78%
Data quality: High
Limitations
- โขLack of specific, current betting odds for all markets
- โขMMA's inherent unpredictability despite statistical advantages
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo โ FAQ
Allan Nascimento's primary strength lies in his elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and submission grappling. He has a high submission average in the UFC and has demonstrated the ability to finish opponents on the ground.
Our UFC predictions weigh both fighters' recent records, methods of victory, stylistic matchups, reach, and layoff length. MMA is structurally upset-prone โ confidence rarely exceeds 75% even on clear stylistic edges. See the full methodology and other matches on our AI UFC Predictions hub.