🥊 UFC

Tuesday, Jun 16, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC

Game starts in 21d 8h 47m

Alex Perez

Alex Perez

vs

Tatsuro Taira

Tatsuro Taira

Tatsuro Taira

AI Confidence: 67%

Winner: Tatsuro Taira (67%)

Method: KO/TKO

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Alex Perez vs Tatsuro Taira Prediction

Tatsuro Taira is predicted to defeat Alex Perez in a hypothetical rematch. Taira's superior recent form, higher ranking, and versatile skillset, particularly his grappling and improved striking, are expected to overcome Perez, who is still finding his rhythm after a significant injury layoff.

AI-powered prediction

Alex Perez face Tatsuro Taira on Tuesday, part of the 2026 UFC season. Both fighters' recent records, methods of victory, and stylistic matchup factors are detailed alongside the prediction below.

FIGHT WINNER

Tatsuro Taira

67%

This is a hypothetical rematch between Alex Perez and Tatsuro Taira, occurring on June 16, 2026, two years after their initial encounter where Taira secured a TKO victory due to a leg injury sustained by Perez. Since that fight, Tatsuro Taira has been significantly more active and has faced a higher caliber of competition, climbing to #3 in the UFC flyweight rankings. He has secured impressive finishes against Brandon Moreno and Hyun Sung Park, and recently fought for the flyweight title against Joshua Van in May 2026, albeit in a losing effort via TKO. Taira's fighting style is versatile, combining strong striking with excellent grappling and submission skills, making him a threat in all areas of the fight. Alex Perez, on the other hand, suffered a significant ACL injury in their first fight, leading to a prolonged layoff. Since his return, his record has been mixed, with a submission loss to Asu Almabayev in November 2025 and a TKO win over Charles Johnson in January 2026. While Perez demonstrated his knockout power against Johnson, his overall consistency and ability to withstand sustained pressure against top-ranked opponents remain a question mark following his injury and subsequent mixed results. Taira's ability to exploit weaknesses, as seen in their first fight and Perez's subsequent submission loss, gives him a distinct advantage. Taira's relentless pace and diverse attack, coupled with Perez's recent injury history and mixed performances, suggest Taira is likely to repeat his victory, potentially by TKO as he did previously, or by submission given his strong ground game. The previous fight ending in Round 2 due to injury, and Taira's multiple second-round finishes, make a Round 2 TKO/KO a plausible outcome.

METHOD OF VICTORY

KO/TKO

Round: Round 2

67%

This is a hypothetical rematch between Alex Perez and Tatsuro Taira, occurring on June 16, 2026, two years after their initial encounter where Taira secured a TKO victory due to a leg injury sustained by Perez. Since that fight, Tatsuro Taira has been significantly more active and has faced a higher caliber of competition, climbing to #3 in the UFC flyweight rankings. He has secured impressive finishes against Brandon Moreno and Hyun Sung Park, and recently fought for the flyweight title against Joshua Van in May 2026, albeit in a losing effort via TKO. Taira's fighting style is versatile, combining strong striking with excellent grappling and submission skills, making him a threat in all areas of the fight. Alex Perez, on the other hand, suffered a significant ACL injury in their first fight, leading to a prolonged layoff. Since his return, his record has been mixed, with a submission loss to Asu Almabayev in November 2025 and a TKO win over Charles Johnson in January 2026. While Perez demonstrated his knockout power against Johnson, his overall consistency and ability to withstand sustained pressure against top-ranked opponents remain a question mark following his injury and subsequent mixed results. Taira's ability to exploit weaknesses, as seen in their first fight and Perez's subsequent submission loss, gives him a distinct advantage. Taira's relentless pace and diverse attack, coupled with Perez's recent injury history and mixed performances, suggest Taira is likely to repeat his victory, potentially by TKO as he did previously, or by submission given his strong ground game. The previous fight ending in Round 2 due to injury, and Taira's multiple second-round finishes, make a Round 2 TKO/KO a plausible outcome.

Alex Perez vs Tatsuro Taira Key Stats (AI)

Alex PerezStatTatsuro Taira
33% AI Win Probability67%
78% Data Quality Score30

No recent head-to-head meetings on record for this matchup.

Betting Angles Alex Perez vs Tatsuro Taira

💰 Sharp Money

Sharp money would likely be on Taira, especially considering his recent championship-level experience and diverse finishing abilities. Given the previous injury outcome, there might be interest in Taira by KO/TKO or submission props. Line movement: If this fight were announced, the opening lines would likely position Taira as a strong favorite. Any significant line movement would depend on pre-fight news regarding Perez's health or training camp, but a strong lean towards Taira would be expected.

Risk Assessment

Specific risk factors for this matchup are evaluated as data populates. Whatever the model output, factor your own bankroll discipline — single-match outcomes are noisy by nature, and even high-confidence picks miss often enough to matter.

Data Quality Score

78%

Data quality: High. Extensive recent fight data, injury reports, and ranking information were available for both fighters, including the result of their previous encounter. The only minor limitation was the lack of a confirmed result for Perez's May 30, 2026 fight against Sumudaerji, but this is unlikely to drastically alter the overall assessment for this hypothetical rematch.

Limitations

  • The prediction is for a hypothetical rematch on a future date, assuming both fighters are in their current form and health.
  • The exact impact of Perez's May 30, 2026 fight (against Sumudaerji) on his current form and confidence is unknown.
  • MMA fights can be unpredictable, and a single strike can change the outcome.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.

Alex Perez vs Tatsuro Taira FAQ

Tatsuro Taira defeated Alex Perez via TKO (injury) in the second round on June 15, 2024.

Our UFC predictions weigh both fighters' recent records, methods of victory, stylistic matchups, reach, and layoff length. MMA is structurally upset-prone — confidence rarely exceeds 75% even on clear stylistic edges. See the full methodology and other matches on our AI UFC Predictions hub.