🎾 ATP - Mutua Madrid OpenMadrid, Spain

Wednesday, Apr 22, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

Game starts in 21h 21m

Roberto Bautista Agut

Roberto Bautista Agut

vs

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Thiago Agustin Tirante Win

AI Confidence: 70%

Winner: Thiago Agustin Tirante Win (70%)

Spread: Tirante -2.5 games (-2.5) (68%)

Total: Over 22.5 (65%)

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Prediction

This first-round match at the Mutua Madrid Open pits veteran Roberto Bautista Agut against the younger, in-form Thiago Agustin Tirante. Tirante holds a higher ranking and better recent results, while Bautista Agut is battling fitness concerns after a recent injury retirement. The match is on outdoor red clay, a surface both players have experience on, but Tirante's current momentum and health give him a significant edge.

AI-powered prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Thiago Agustin Tirante Win

Predicted: 2-1

70%

Thiago Agustin Tirante is favored due to his higher ranking (No. 73), better recent form (60% win rate), and strong 2026 clay court record (6-3). Roberto Bautista Agut, while experienced, is returning from an 'undisclosed' injury that forced a retirement in his last match, raising significant fitness concerns. Tirante's comfort on clay, evidenced by his junior success and current form, gives him a distinct advantage over an inconsistent and potentially compromised Bautista Agut.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Tirante -2.5 games (-2.5)

68%

Tirante's superior recent form and lack of injury concerns suggest he should be able to win more games overall, even if the match goes to three sets. Bautista Agut's fitness issues are likely to hinder his ability to consistently hold serve and break, giving Tirante the edge in total games won.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 22.5

65%

A predicted score of 2-1 indicates a three-set match, which typically pushes the total game count over 22.5. While Tirante is favored, Bautista Agut's experience and clay court prowess mean he is likely to win at least one set or keep sets close, contributing to a higher total game count.

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Roberto Bautista Agut vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Key Stats (AI)

AgutStatTirante
30% AI Win Probability70%
2 Predicted Score1
Tirante -2.5 games… Spread68% conf
Over 22.5 Total65% conf
70% Model Confidence
🏟️

Madrid, Spain

Home Ground

12:00 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr 22

Matchday kickoff

🎾

ATP - Mutua Madrid Open

Tennis

Betting Angles Roberto Bautista Agut vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

💰 Sharp Money

Not explicitly mentioned, but the consistent favoring of Tirante across multiple bookmakers suggests a consensus in the market. Line movement: Not available in the provided analysis.

Model Confidence

70%

Data quality: High, with detailed information on rankings, recent form, surface records, and injury status provided.

Limitations

  • Lack of head-to-head history between the players.
  • Uncertainty regarding the exact nature and recovery status of Roberto Bautista Agut's 'undisclosed' injury.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Thiago Agustin Tirante FAQ

The Mutua Madrid Open is played on outdoor red clay courts.