Raphael Collignon vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Raphael Collignon Win

Predicted: 2-1

⚡80%

Raphael Collignon enters this match in significantly better recent form, boasting an 80% win rate in his last 10 matches and a recent Challenger title on clay. His career clay win rate of 78% is also superior to Berrettini's 2026 clay record. While Matteo Berrettini holds a 1-0 head-to-head lead, that match was on an indoor surface, and his current form is inconsistent, with 3 losses in his last 4 matches. Collignon's momentum and clay court prowess make him the favorite, though Berrettini's past success at Madrid and ability to beat top players like Medvedev suggest he can still take a set.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Collignon -3.5 games (-3.5)

75%

Collignon's strong recent form and excellent clay court record suggest he should be able to win a comfortable number of games, even if Berrettini manages to take a set. His consistent performance and recent title on clay indicate he's playing at a higher level currently, which should translate to winning more games overall against a less consistent Berrettini.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Over 22.5

70%

Despite Collignon's strong form, Berrettini is a former world No. 6 and a Madrid Open finalist, capable of pushing sets close or winning one. His recent win over Daniil Medvedev on clay shows he still possesses high-level tennis. This suggests the match could extend to three sets or feature tight sets, pushing the total games 'over' the standard line of 22.5.

💰 Sharp Money

Without live odds, it's difficult to determine sharp money movement. However, given Collignon's recent success, sharp bettors might lean towards him on the spread. Line movement: No line movement data is available, but an initial line might open with Collignon as a slight favorite, potentially moving further in his direction if his strong form is heavily backed.