Andrea Pellegrino vs Luca Nardi Prediction

ATS PREDICTION

Andrea Pellegrino Win

Predicted: 2-0

60%

Andrea Pellegrino, currently ranked No. 130, holds a slight edge over Luca Nardi (No. 142) in this Round of 128 match on clay. Pellegrino has a better overall 2026 record (14-11 vs 8-10) and has shown more recent activity and success on clay courts, including two 2-0 wins in his last few clay matches. While Nardi boasts a higher career-high ranking from a year ago, his current form and limited recent clay court exposure suggest Pellegrino is better prepared for this specific surface and tournament context.

SPREAD PREDICTION

Pellegrino -3.5 games (-3.5)

60%

Pellegrino's slightly superior current ranking, better overall 2026 record, and more consistent recent form on clay courts suggest he should be able to win this match with a comfortable margin. His recent clay wins, including straight-set victories, indicate he can control matches on this surface. A spread of -3.5 games for Pellegrino is a reasonable pick, anticipating a 2-0 victory with at least one decisive set or two tight sets where he edges out Nardi.

TOTAL PREDICTION

Under 22.5

50%

Given Andrea Pellegrino's slightly better form and more extensive recent match play on clay, a straight-sets victory for him is a strong possibility. Luca Nardi's recent form has been inconsistent, and his only listed recent clay match was a 0-2 loss. If Pellegrino can maintain his recent clay court performance, the match is likely to conclude in two sets, keeping the total games under 22.5.

💰 Sharp Money

Sharp money is likely to favor Pellegrino on the moneyline, and potentially on a small game spread, given his surface advantage. Line movement: If early betting patterns align with the analysis, expect Pellegrino's odds to shorten slightly as the match approaches.