EredivisieEredivisieSparta Stadion Het Kasteel

Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:30 PM UTC

Kickoff in 21d 10h 9m

Sparta Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam

vs

Excelsior

Excelsior

51%
20%
29%
Sparta RotterdamDrawExcelsior

AI Pick: Sparta Rotterdam Win

Confidence: 46%

1X2: Sparta Rotterdam Win (46%)

O/U 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals

BTTS: Yes

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Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior Prediction

Sparta Rotterdam is favored to win this Eredivisie clash against a struggling Excelsior side. Sparta's home advantage, better league position, and stronger overall form are key factors. However, Excelsior's desperate need for points in their relegation battle could make this a more contested match than expected.

AI-powered prediction

MATCH RESULT

Sparta Rotterdam Win

Predicted: 2-1

46%

Sparta Rotterdam, currently 10th in the Eredivisie, faces 16th-placed Excelsior who are in a relegation battle. Sparta has a stronger overall form and a better home record (6 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses) compared to Excelsior's poor away record (3 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses). The API-Sports comparison also favors Sparta with 58.7% chance of winning and an 80% H2H advantage. While API-Sports suggests a 'Win or draw' for Sparta with a high draw percentage (45%), Sparta's superior league position, home advantage, and overall better form make a home win the most probable outcome. Excelsior's weak away defense (2.0 goals conceded per game) is a key factor.

TOTAL GOALS

Over 2.5 Goals

Total: 2.8

60%

Sparta averages 1.1 goals scored at home and concedes 1.5. Excelsior averages 1.1 goals scored away and concedes 2.0. This suggests a combined average of around 2.8 goals per match. Excelsior's poor away defense makes them susceptible to conceding, while they also manage to score in most away games. Both teams have a tendency for BTTS, with Sparta's home games seeing goals from both sides in roughly 10-11 out of 15 matches, and Excelsior's away games in 12-13 out of 15. Therefore, Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score 'Yes' are strong predictions.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

Yes

55%

Sparta averages 1.1 goals scored at home and concedes 1.5. Excelsior averages 1.1 goals scored away and concedes 2.0. This suggests a combined average of around 2.8 goals per match. Excelsior's poor away defense makes them susceptible to conceding, while they also manage to score in most away games. Both teams have a tendency for BTTS, with Sparta's home games seeing goals from both sides in roughly 10-11 out of 15 matches, and Excelsior's away games in 12-13 out of 15. Therefore, Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score 'Yes' are strong predictions.

๐Ÿ“Š More Markets

โšฝ Goal Markets

Total Goals (O/U 1.5)

Over 1.5

35%

With an expected total of around 2.8 goals, it is highly probable that at least two goals will be scored in the match.

Total Goals (O/U 3.5)

Under 3.5

46%

While Over 2.5 is predicted, the average goals for both teams (around 2.8) suggest that hitting 4 or more goals is less likely, despite Excelsior's defensive vulnerabilities.

1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)

Over 0.5

35%

Both teams have a history of scoring and conceding in the first half. Sparta has scored 15 goals and conceded 16 in the first half across all games, while Excelsior has scored 16 and conceded 20. This makes a goal in the first half highly probable.

First Team to Score

Home

47%

Sparta, playing at home and being the stronger team, is more likely to open the scoring against a defensively weaker Excelsior.

Goal in Both Halves

Yes

47%

Both teams have shown a tendency to score and concede in both halves of their matches, making it likely that goals will be distributed across both periods.

Most Likely Score

2-1

55%

Based on Sparta's home scoring average (1.1) and Excelsior's away goals conceded (2.0), Sparta is likely to score 1-2 goals. Excelsior's ability to score away (1.1 goals per game) suggests they can get on the scoreboard, leading to a 2-1 prediction.

BTTS 1st Half

No

46%

While both teams can score, it's less common for both to find the net in the first 45 minutes compared to the full 90 minutes. The first half often sees more cautious play.

xG Based (O/U 2.5)

Over 2.5 xG

46%

Based on the average goals scored and conceded by both teams, the expected goals for the match are around 2.8, which points towards an 'Over 2.5 xG' scenario.

๐Ÿ† Result Markets

Double Chance

1X

35%

Sparta is the stronger team playing at home, and the API-Sports prediction explicitly suggests 'Win or draw' for Sparta. This pick offers good coverage for the favorite.

Draw No Bet

Home

47%

Sparta is the favorite, and a Draw No Bet option minimizes risk by returning the stake if the match ends in a draw, which API-Sports suggests is a significant possibility.

HT/FT

Home/Home

46%

Sparta has the home advantage and is the stronger side. They are likely to take an early lead and maintain it throughout the match, especially against a struggling Excelsior side.

๐Ÿ“Š Team Stats

Total Corners (O/U 9.5)

Over 9.5

46%

Eredivisie matches generally feature a moderate to high number of corners. With both teams likely to attack and Excelsior's defense being pressured, opportunities for corners should arise frequently.

Total Cards (O/U 3.5)

Over 3.5

46%

Sparta averages 1.87 yellow cards per game, and Excelsior averages 1.37. A combined average of 3.24 suggests that Over 3.5 cards is a reasonable expectation, especially in a match where Excelsior is fighting relegation.

Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)

Over 8.5

46%

While specific shot data isn't provided, Eredivisie matches typically see 8-10 shots on target. With both teams expected to contribute to the scoring, Over 8.5 shots on target is a fair estimate.

Total Shots (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

55%

Both teams will be looking to score, especially Excelsior who needs points. This should lead to a decent volume of shots, both on and off target.

Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

55%

Eredivisie matches typically have a moderate number of fouls. With Excelsior fighting relegation, the game could be competitive and physical, pushing the foul count higher.

Possession Winner

Home

46%

Sparta, as the home team and generally the slightly stronger side, is expected to control more of the possession.

Sparta Rotterdam Clean Sheet

No

47%

Sparta has kept 5 clean sheets at home (33%), while Excelsior has failed to score in 3 of their 15 away games (20%). Excelsior's away defense is poor, conceding 2.0 goals per game, making an away clean sheet unlikely. Given Excelsior's need for points and their ability to score away, a home clean sheet for Sparta is also not highly probable.

Excelsior Clean Sheet

No

47%

Sparta has kept 5 clean sheets at home (33%), while Excelsior has failed to score in 3 of their 15 away games (20%). Excelsior's away defense is poor, conceding 2.0 goals per game, making an away clean sheet unlikely. Given Excelsior's need for points and their ability to score away, a home clean sheet for Sparta is also not highly probable.

Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior โ€” Key Stats

Sparta RotterdamStatExcelsior
10th โœ…League Position16th
42 โœ…Points28
31 โœ…Games Played30
12 โœ…Wins7
6 โœ…Draws7
36 โœ…Goals Scored31
53 Goals Concededโœ… 51
1.2 โœ…Goals Per Game1.0
11 โœ…Clean Sheets5
LWDLL โœ…Recent FormLLDLD
๐ŸŸ๏ธ

Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel

Home Ground

โฐ

12:30 PM UTC

Sunday, May 17

Matchday kickoff

โšฝ

Eredivisie

Soccer

Betting Angles โ€” Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior

๐Ÿ’ฐ Sharp Money

Without live odds, it's impossible to track sharp money. However, given the disparity in league position and form, any significant movement towards Excelsior or a draw would indicate sharp money. Line movement: Without opening odds, line movement cannot be assessed. However, if Sparta's odds were to drift, it would suggest market uncertainty or confidence in Excelsior's ability to get a result.

AI Same Game Parlay โ€” Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior

๐Ÿ”ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP

3-Leg
Sparta Rotterdam Win2.00
Over 2.5 Goals1.85
BTTS: Yes1.72

Combined Odds: 6.36 (+536)

AI Confidence: 16%

$10 โ†’ $63.64 | $25 โ†’ $159.10 | $50 โ†’ $318.20

Correlation: POSITIVE โœ… โ€” all legs support each other

Risk Assessment

Medium Risk
6/10
  • โš ๏ธExcelsior's relegation battle could lead to an unexpected strong performance.
  • โš ๏ธThe API-Sports prediction showing a 45% chance of a draw indicates potential for a shared points outcome.
  • โš ๏ธSparta's recent form is not consistently strong, introducing some unpredictability.

Model Confidence

โšก70%

Data quality: The provided team statistics and league standings are comprehensive and of high quality, allowing for a detailed analysis.

Limitations

  • โ€ขLack of real-time odds data prevents value bet identification and analysis of market sentiment/line movement.
  • โ€ขAbsence of specific player injury reports or suspensions.
  • โ€ขNo detailed H2H match results, only a summary percentage from API-Sports.
  • โ€ขAPI-Sports prediction of 45% draw is a point of contention with other data points, requiring careful calibration.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.

Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior โ€” FAQ

Sparta Rotterdam is most likely to win the match, given their home advantage, better league position, and stronger overall form.