BundesligaBundesligaEuropa-Park Stadion

Saturday, May 2, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC

Kickoff in 21d 11h 0m

SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg

vs

VfL Wolfsburg

VfL Wolfsburg

78%
8%
14%
SC FreiburgDrawVfL Wolfsburg

AI Pick: SC Freiburg Win

Confidence: 75%

1X2: SC Freiburg Win (75%)

O/U 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals

BTTS: Yes

SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction

SC Freiburg hosts VfL Wolfsburg in a Bundesliga clash where Freiburg's solid home form and Wolfsburg's dire relegation battle form set the stage. Freiburg is favored to win, with a high probability of goals from both sides and the match exceeding 2.5 total goals.

AI-powered prediction

MATCH RESULT

SC Freiburg Win

Predicted: 3-1

75%

SC Freiburg holds a significant home advantage, boasting a 50% win rate at Europa-Park Stadion this season (7 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses). They average 1.9 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded at home. In contrast, VfL Wolfsburg is in dire form, sitting in the relegation zone (17th) with a poor away record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses. Their away defense is particularly leaky, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game. While Freiburg's recent form has been inconsistent, their overall home performance and Wolfsburg's struggles strongly favor a home victory. Wolfsburg's desperation for points might lead them to score, but their defensive fragilities are likely to be exploited.

TOTAL GOALS

Over 2.5 Goals

Total: 3.2

60%

Freiburg's home matches average 3.21 goals, and Wolfsburg's away matches average 3.71 goals. Both teams have strong attacking averages (Freiburg 1.9 home, Wolfsburg 1.3 away) and significant defensive vulnerabilities (Freiburg 1.4 conceded home, Wolfsburg 2.4 conceded away). This combination points to a high-scoring affair with both teams likely to contribute to the scoreboard.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

Yes

55%

Freiburg's home matches average 3.21 goals, and Wolfsburg's away matches average 3.71 goals. Both teams have strong attacking averages (Freiburg 1.9 home, Wolfsburg 1.3 away) and significant defensive vulnerabilities (Freiburg 1.4 conceded home, Wolfsburg 2.4 conceded away). This combination points to a high-scoring affair with both teams likely to contribute to the scoreboard.

📊 More Markets

Goal Markets

Total Goals (O/U 1.5)

Over 1.5

90%

With both teams averaging well over 3 goals per game in their respective home/away splits, and a high likelihood of BTTS, scoring at least two goals in the match is almost certain.

Total Goals (O/U 3.5)

Over 3.5

60%

The combined average goals for Freiburg at home (3.21) and Wolfsburg away (3.71) suggest a high probability of four or more goals. Wolfsburg's poor defense (2.4 GA away) contributes significantly to this expectation.

1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)

Over 0.5

90%

Freiburg's home games average 2.35 goals in the first half (scored + conceded), and Wolfsburg's away games average 3.14 goals in the first half. This indicates a very high probability of at least one goal being scored before halftime.

First Team to Score

Home

70%

Freiburg has a stronger offensive output at home and is playing against a team with a weak defense. They are more likely to break the deadlock first.

Goal in Both Halves

Yes

75%

Given the high probability of multiple goals and both teams scoring, it is very likely that goals will be distributed across both halves of the match.

Most Likely Score

3-1

20%

Based on Freiburg's average home goals (1.9) and Wolfsburg's average away goals conceded (2.4), a 3-1 scoreline for Freiburg is a plausible outcome, especially considering Wolfsburg's ability to score away (1.3 avg).

BTTS 1st Half

No

60%

While there's a high chance of a goal in the first half, both teams scoring in the first 45 minutes is less common than over the full 90. Freiburg's first-half goal distribution is more concentrated on scoring themselves rather than conceding early to allow BTTS in the first half.

xG Based (O/U 2.5)

Over 2.5 xG

75%

Based on the high average goals scored and conceded by both teams in their respective home/away splits, the quality of chances (xG) generated in this match is expected to be high, easily surpassing 2.5 xG.

🏆 Result Markets

Double Chance

1X

90%

Freiburg's strong home record and Wolfsburg's poor overall and away form make a home win or draw a very safe bet. Wolfsburg's position in the relegation zone highlights their struggles.

Draw No Bet

Home

80%

Freiburg is the clear favorite based on league position, home advantage, and Wolfsburg's form. This pick offers a refund if the match ends in a draw, providing a safer option for backing Freiburg.

HT/FT

Home/Home

55%

Given Freiburg's home advantage and the expectation of an attacking start from both sides, Freiburg is likely to take an early lead and maintain it throughout the match. However, Wolfsburg's ability to score means a Draw/Home is also possible.

📊 Team Stats

Total Corners (O/U 9.5)

Over 9.5

70%

Bundesliga matches typically feature a good number of corners. With both teams likely to attack and Wolfsburg needing to push for points, an open game with multiple attacking phases is expected, leading to more corners.

Total Cards (O/U 3.5)

Over 3.5

75%

Wolfsburg is in a relegation battle, which often leads to more aggressive play and fouls. Freiburg also averages 1.57 yellow cards per game, while Wolfsburg averages 2.1. The combined average suggests a high likelihood of exceeding 3.5 cards in a competitive match.

Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)

Over 8.5

70%

Given the expectation of an open, attacking game with both teams scoring, there should be numerous attempts on goal. Freiburg's home attack and Wolfsburg's desperate attempts to score will likely result in a combined total of over 8.5 shots on target.

Total Shots (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

70%

An open game with attacking intent from both sides, coupled with defensive weaknesses, should generate a high volume of shots. Both teams will be looking to score, pushing the total shots count up.

Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

65%

A Bundesliga match, especially one with relegation implications for Wolfsburg, tends to be competitive and physical. This often leads to a higher number of fouls. Over 22.5 is a reasonable expectation.

Possession Winner

Home

60%

Freiburg, playing at home, typically aims to control the tempo and possession. Wolfsburg, especially in their current form, might opt for a more counter-attacking approach, allowing Freiburg to dominate possession.

SC Freiburg Clean Sheet

No

80%

Freiburg has kept only 2 clean sheets in 14 home games, and Wolfsburg has managed only 1 clean sheet in 14 away games. Both teams have shown vulnerabilities at the back and a tendency to concede, making clean sheets unlikely for either side.

VfL Wolfsburg Clean Sheet

No

80%

Freiburg has kept only 2 clean sheets in 14 home games, and Wolfsburg has managed only 1 clean sheet in 14 away games. Both teams have shown vulnerabilities at the back and a tendency to concede, making clean sheets unlikely for either side.

SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg Key Stats

SC FreiburgStatVfL Wolfsburg
8th League Position17th
37 Points21
28 Games Played28
10 Wins5
7 Draws6
41 Goals Scored38
47 Goals Conceded63
1.5 Goals Per Game1.4
5 Clean Sheets1
LDLWL Recent FormLLDLL
🏟️

Europa-Park Stadion

Home Ground

1:30 PM UTC

Saturday, May 2

Matchday kickoff

Bundesliga

Soccer

Betting Angles SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg

⚠️ Match Result: SC Freiburg to Win

Freiburg's strong home record (50% win rate) against Wolfsburg's abysmal away form (57% loss rate) and relegation battle makes a home win highly probable. The assumed market odds of 1.80 (55.5% implied probability) offer significant value compared to our model's 75% probability.

⚠️ Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals

Freiburg's home games average 3.21 total goals, while Wolfsburg's away games average 3.71 total goals. Both teams show a high propensity for high-scoring matches, with Freiburg scoring 1.9 goals/game at home and Wolfsburg conceding 2.4 goals/game away. This suggests a strong likelihood of at least three goals in the match.

⚠️ Both Teams To Score: Yes

Freiburg has scored in 13 of 14 home games and conceded in 12 of 14 home games. Wolfsburg has scored in 11 of 14 away games and conceded in 13 of 14 away games. Both teams consistently find the net and struggle to keep clean sheets, making BTTS 'Yes' a highly probable outcome.

💰 Sharp Money

Without live odds, it's hard to track sharp money. However, given the clear statistical disparity, any significant movement towards a draw or Wolfsburg win would indicate sharp money on an upset or perceived value. Line movement: N/A - No initial odds provided to track movement. If odds were available, a decreasing price on Freiburg and increasing price on Wolfsburg/Draw would be expected.

AI Same Game Parlay SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg

🔥 RECOMMENDED SGP

3-Leg
SC Freiburg Win2.00
Over 2.5 Goals1.85
BTTS: Yes1.72

Combined Odds: 6.36 (+536)

AI Confidence: 26%

$10 → $63.64 | $25 → $159.10 | $50 → $318.20

Correlation: POSITIVE ✅ — all legs support each other

Risk Assessment

Medium Risk
4/10
  • ⚠️SC Freiburg's recent inconsistent form could lead to an unexpected result.
  • ⚠️Wolfsburg's desperation for points in the relegation battle might fuel an inspired performance.
  • ⚠️The API-Sports prediction of a high draw probability (45%) suggests potential for a tighter game than raw stats indicate.

Model Confidence

80%

Data quality: Good. Comprehensive team statistics and league standings are available, providing a solid foundation for analysis.

Limitations

  • Lack of specific head-to-head match history between the two teams.
  • Absence of real-time odds prevents calculation of true betting value and tracking of line movement.
  • No injury reports or player-specific data, which could influence match outcomes.
  • No xG data provided, limiting deeper offensive/defensive efficiency analysis.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.

SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg FAQ

Based on current form and home advantage, an SC Freiburg win is the most likely outcome.