Liga MXLiga MXEstadio Miguel Hidalgo

Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC

Kickoff in 12d 7h 34m

Pachuca

Pachuca

vs

Toluca

Toluca

24%
15%
61%
PachucaDrawToluca

AI Pick: Toluca Win

Confidence: 57%

1X2: Toluca Win (57%)

O/U 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals

BTTS: Yes

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Pachuca vs Toluca Prediction

This Liga MX clash between Pachuca and Toluca promises to be a tightly contested affair. While Pachuca enjoys home advantage and has shown good recent form, Toluca boasts a superior head-to-head record and a potent attack. Both teams are battling for playoff positioning, adding to the intensity. Expect a competitive match with goals from both sides. [2, 6, 7, 15]

AI-powered prediction

MATCH RESULT

Toluca Win

Predicted: 1-2

57%

This Liga MX encounter pits two closely ranked teams against each other. While Pachuca holds a slight edge in the standings (4th vs 5th) and boasts a strong home record (6 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), Toluca has a historically dominant head-to-head record against Pachuca, particularly in recent league meetings (4 wins, 2 draws in the last 6). Toluca also possesses a superior overall goal-scoring record this season (79 goals vs 50) and a better goal difference (+12 vs +6). Although Toluca recently endured a six-game winless streak in the league, they broke that slump with a convincing 4-1 victory over Leon, suggesting a potential return to form. The API-Sports prediction also explicitly advises a 'Win or draw' for Toluca, with both a draw and an away win having 45% probability, and the overall comparison slightly favoring Toluca (51.2% away). Despite Pachuca's home advantage and recent form (3 wins, 2 draws in their last 5 before a recent loss to Tijuana), Toluca's strong H2H and higher offensive output, coupled with the API-Sports guidance, lead to a narrow away victory prediction. Key injuries for Pachuca include A. Mozo (broken leg) and Andrรฉs Micolta (kneecap), with E. Valencia suspended. Toluca is missing M. Ruiz (cruciate ligament) and potentially F. Pereira (thigh injury), which could impact their performance. The unpredictability of Liga MX and these factors temper the confidence level.

TOTAL GOALS

Over 2.5 Goals

Total: 2.7

60%

Toluca has a high season average of 2.0 goals per game, and their recent H2H matches against Pachuca have frequently seen over 2.5 goals (5 out of last 6 league meetings). While Pachuca's home games tend to be lower scoring, Toluca's attacking prowess and the historical fixture trend suggest a higher-scoring affair. Both teams have shown a tendency to score against each other in recent encounters, making 'Both Teams To Score: Yes' a strong pick.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

Yes

55%

Toluca has a high season average of 2.0 goals per game, and their recent H2H matches against Pachuca have frequently seen over 2.5 goals (5 out of last 6 league meetings). While Pachuca's home games tend to be lower scoring, Toluca's attacking prowess and the historical fixture trend suggest a higher-scoring affair. Both teams have shown a tendency to score against each other in recent encounters, making 'Both Teams To Score: Yes' a strong pick.

๐Ÿ“Š More Markets

โšฝ Goal Markets

Total Goals (O/U 1.5)

Over 1.5

35%

With a prediction of Over 2.5 goals and both teams expected to score, it is highly probable that there will be at least two goals in the match.

Total Goals (O/U 3.5)

Under 3.5

46%

While Over 2.5 goals is predicted, a scoreline exceeding 3.5 goals is less common in Liga MX, especially in a competitive fixture between two top-half teams. Toluca's recent 4-1 win was an outlier after a low-scoring run.

1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)

Over 0.5

46%

Both teams have shown the ability to score in the first half. Toluca, in particular, has a significant percentage of goals scored in the 16-30 and 31-45 minute ranges. Given the attacking nature of both sides, at least one goal in the first half is likely.

First Team to Score

Away

55%

Toluca's overall attacking strength and higher goal-scoring average suggest they are slightly more likely to open the scoring, despite Pachuca's home advantage.

Goal in Both Halves

Yes

46%

Given the expectation of Over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, it's reasonable to anticipate goals in both halves, especially if the game opens up.

Most Likely Score

1-2

20%

Based on Toluca's attacking strength and recent H2H results, a narrow away win is predicted. Pachuca is likely to score at home.

BTTS 1st Half

No

46%

While BTTS Yes is predicted for the full match, both teams scoring in the first half is less common, particularly in a competitive Liga MX fixture where teams might start cautiously.

xG Based (O/U 2.5)

Over 2.5 xG

55%

Given the prediction of Over 2.5 actual goals and the attacking capabilities of both teams, the expected goals (xG) generated in the match are likely to exceed 2.5.

๐Ÿ† Result Markets

Double Chance

X2

47%

The API-Sports prediction explicitly advises 'Win or draw' for Toluca, and their H2H record against Pachuca is strong. This double chance offers good coverage given the tight nature of the match.

Draw No Bet

Away

57%

Aligns with the main prediction of an away win for Toluca, providing a safety net in case of a draw.

HT/FT

Draw/Away

35%

Liga MX matches can often be tight in the first half, with teams opening up more after the break. Toluca has a strong second-half scoring record, making a Draw at halftime followed by a Toluca win at full-time a plausible outcome.

๐Ÿ“Š Team Stats

Total Corners (O/U 9.5)

Over 9.5

46%

Liga MX matches often feature aggressive attacking play leading to a good number of corners. Both teams are competitive and will push for goals.

Total Cards (O/U 3.5)

Over 3.5

47%

Both Pachuca (91 yellow, 14 red) and Toluca (91 yellow, 8 red) accumulate a significant number of cards over the season. This is a crucial league match between two closely ranked teams, which often leads to a physical contest and more bookings.

Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)

Over 8.5

46%

With both teams having strong attacking players and a history of scoring, it's reasonable to expect a good number of shots on target as they push for goals.

Total Shots (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

46%

Both teams have attacking intent, and a competitive match should see a good volume of shots from both sides as they try to break down defenses.

Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

46%

Liga MX matches are often physical and competitive, leading to a higher number of fouls. The importance of this match between two playoff contenders will likely contribute to this.

Possession Winner

Home

55%

Pachuca, playing at home, is likely to try and control the tempo and possession, even against a strong Toluca side.

Pachuca Clean Sheet

No

47%

Given the prediction for 'Both Teams To Score: Yes' and Toluca's strong attacking record, it's unlikely Pachuca will keep a clean sheet. Conversely, Pachuca's home scoring record and Toluca's recent defensive vulnerabilities (conceding in 6 consecutive league games before the Leon match) suggest Toluca is unlikely to keep a clean sheet either.

Toluca Clean Sheet

No

47%

Given the prediction for 'Both Teams To Score: Yes' and Toluca's strong attacking record, it's unlikely Pachuca will keep a clean sheet. Conversely, Pachuca's home scoring record and Toluca's recent defensive vulnerabilities (conceding in 6 consecutive league games before the Leon match) suggest Toluca is unlikely to keep a clean sheet either.

Pachuca vs Toluca โ€” Key Stats

PachucaStatToluca
4th โœ…League Position5th
31 โœ…Points30
36 Games Playedโœ… 40
16 Winsโœ… 22
8 โœ…Draws11
50 Goals Scoredโœ… 79
43 Goals Concededโœ… 40
1.4 Goals Per Gameโœ… 2.0
7 Clean Sheetsโœ… 13
WWWLL โœ…Recent FormLDLLW
๐ŸŸ๏ธ

Estadio Miguel Hidalgo

Home Ground

โฐ

11:00 PM UTC

Sunday, May 10

Matchday kickoff

โšฝ

Liga MX

Soccer

Betting Angles โ€” Pachuca vs Toluca

๐Ÿ’ฐ Sharp Money

N/A (no odds provided) Line movement: N/A (no odds provided)

AI Same Game Parlay โ€” Pachuca vs Toluca

๐Ÿ”ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP

3-Leg
Toluca Win2.00
Over 2.5 Goals1.85
BTTS: Yes1.72

Combined Odds: 6.36 (+536)

AI Confidence: 20%

$10 โ†’ $63.64 | $25 โ†’ $159.10 | $50 โ†’ $318.20

Correlation: POSITIVE โœ… โ€” all legs support each other

Risk Assessment

High Risk
7/10
  • โš ๏ธToluca's recent inconsistent form despite a strong H2H record.
  • โš ๏ธPachuca's strong home advantage and recent good form.
  • โš ๏ธSignificant injuries and suspensions on both sides affecting team cohesion.
  • โš ๏ธLiga MX's inherent unpredictability and high draw rate.
  • โš ๏ธConflicting signals between API-Sports form comparison (Pachuca favored) and H2H/Poisson (Toluca favored).

Model Confidence

โšก65%

Data quality: High - comprehensive team statistics, league standings, H2H data, and recent news/injury updates were available through Google Search and provided data. [2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21]

Limitations

  • โ€ขAbsence of real-time betting odds to cross-reference market sentiment.
  • โ€ขExact confirmed lineups for the match day are not available well in advance.
  • โ€ขThe full extent of injury recovery for players listed as 'mid-May' or 'early May' returns is uncertain without further updates.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.

Pachuca vs Toluca โ€” FAQ

In their last 6 league meetings, Toluca has won 4 and drawn 2 against Pachuca, indicating a strong recent dominance. [2, 8, 10, 21]