MLSGillette StadiumSaturday, May 9, 2026, 11:30 PM UTC
Kickoff in 21d 8h 51m
New England Revolution
vs
Philadelphia Union
AI Pick: New England Revolution Win
Confidence: 68%
1X2: New England Revolution Win (โก68%)
O/U 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
BTTS: No
New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union Prediction
This MLS fixture pits a strong home side, New England Revolution, against a struggling Philadelphia Union. New England Revolution has been impeccable at home this season, while Philadelphia Union has endured a dismal start, only recently breaking a long losing streak. Despite Philadelphia's historical dominance in head-to-head encounters, current form and home advantage strongly favor New England.
MATCH RESULT
New England Revolution Win
Predicted: 2-0
โก68%
New England Revolution boasts a perfect home record this season, winning all 3 of their matches at Gillette Stadium, scoring an impressive 10 goals and conceding only 1. Their overall form (LLWLWW) is mixed but strong at home. In contrast, Philadelphia Union is in very poor form, with only 1 win and 6 losses in their last 7 games, and their away record is 1 win and 3 losses. While historical head-to-head records heavily favor Philadelphia Union (26 wins to NER's 10 in 44 matches), current form and home advantage are more significant indicators for this specific fixture. The API-Sports prediction also advises a New England Revolution win, despite a high implied draw probability in its breakdown. The Poisson model strongly supports a home victory. Philadelphia Union has also undergone significant roster changes, which may contribute to their current struggles.
TOTAL GOALS
Over 2.5 Goals
Total: 2.7
60%
New England Revolution's home games have seen an average of 3.6 goals (3.3 for, 0.3 against), while Philadelphia Union's away games average 2.8 goals (1.0 for, 1.8 against). Both averages suggest an 'Over 2.5 Goals' outcome. For Both Teams To Score (BTTS), New England Revolution has kept 2 clean sheets in 3 home games and Philadelphia Union has failed to score in 1 of their 4 away games. Given NER's strong home defense and Philadelphia's struggling attack, 'No' for BTTS is favored.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
No
55%
New England Revolution's home games have seen an average of 3.6 goals (3.3 for, 0.3 against), while Philadelphia Union's away games average 2.8 goals (1.0 for, 1.8 against). Both averages suggest an 'Over 2.5 Goals' outcome. For Both Teams To Score (BTTS), New England Revolution has kept 2 clean sheets in 3 home games and Philadelphia Union has failed to score in 1 of their 4 away games. Given NER's strong home defense and Philadelphia's struggling attack, 'No' for BTTS is favored.
๐ More Markets
โฝ Goal Markets
Total Goals (O/U 1.5)
Over 1.5
With New England Revolution's high scoring rate at home (3.3 goals per game) and Philadelphia Union's tendency to concede, at least two goals in the match are highly anticipated.
Total Goals (O/U 3.5)
Under 3.5
While New England Revolution scores a lot at home, Philadelphia Union's overall low scoring output (0.9 goals per game) makes it less likely for the total goals to exceed 3.5, despite NER's offensive prowess.
1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)
Over 0.5
New England Revolution has shown a propensity to score in the first half, particularly in the 31-45 minute range (25% of goals). Given their attacking strength at home, at least one goal in the first half is highly probable.
First Team to Score
Home
New England Revolution has a strong home attack and is expected to dominate possession and create more chances early in the game, making them the most likely team to open the scoring.
Goal in Both Halves
Yes
Given New England Revolution's consistent scoring across different periods of the game and the likelihood of a competitive match, goals in both halves are a reasonable expectation.
Most Likely Score
2-0
New England Revolution's strong home attack (3.3 goals per game) and solid home defense (0.3 goals conceded per game), combined with Philadelphia Union's struggling attack, make a 2-0 victory for the home side a plausible exact score.
BTTS 1st Half
No
New England Revolution's strong home defense makes it unlikely for Philadelphia Union to score in the first half, especially considering their overall struggles in attack.
xG Based (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5 xG
Based on the predicted score and the attacking and defensive statistics of both teams, the expected goals for the match are likely to exceed 2.5, indicating a game with several quality scoring opportunities.
๐ Result Markets
Double Chance
1X
Given New England Revolution's perfect home record and Philadelphia Union's poor overall form, a home win or a draw is a very safe bet. The probability of Philadelphia Union winning away is low.
Draw No Bet
Home
New England Revolution is the clear favorite based on current form and home advantage. The Draw No Bet market offers a safer option, returning the stake if the match ends in a draw, which is a plausible but less likely outcome than a home win.
HT/FT
Home/Home
Considering New England Revolution's strong home form and their ability to score in the first half, it is reasonable to expect them to lead at halftime and maintain that lead to win the match.
๐ Team Stats
Total Corners (O/U 9.5)
Over 9.5
MLS matches typically feature a decent number of corners, and with New England Revolution likely to be on the attack at home, an active game with multiple corner opportunities is expected.
Total Cards (O/U 3.5)
Over 3.5
MLS games can often be physical, and Philadelphia Union has shown a tendency for late yellow cards in their recent matches. A competitive fixture is likely to result in a moderate number of bookings.
Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)
Over 8.5
With New England Revolution's strong home attack and Philadelphia Union's defensive vulnerabilities, both teams are expected to generate scoring chances, leading to a reasonable number of shots on target.
Total Shots (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
Both teams will be looking to create opportunities, with New England Revolution pushing for goals at home and Philadelphia Union attempting to break their poor run. This should lead to a decent volume of shots.
Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
MLS matches are often characterized by a high number of fouls due to their competitive and physical nature. This fixture is expected to be no different.
Possession Winner
Home
As the home favorite, New England Revolution is expected to control the tempo of the game and maintain a higher share of possession.
New England Revolution Clean Sheet
Yes
New England Revolution has an excellent home defensive record, conceding only 1 goal in 3 home matches and keeping 2 clean sheets. Philadelphia Union's away attack has been weak, failing to score in 1 of their 4 away games. Therefore, a home clean sheet is a strong possibility.
Philadelphia Union Clean Sheet
No
New England Revolution has an excellent home defensive record, conceding only 1 goal in 3 home matches and keeping 2 clean sheets. Philadelphia Union's away attack has been weak, failing to score in 1 of their 4 away games. Therefore, a home clean sheet is a strong possibility.
New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union โ Key Stats
Gillette Stadium
Home Ground
11:30 PM UTC
Saturday, May 9
Matchday kickoff
MLS
Soccer
Betting Angles โ New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Without live odds, it's difficult to gauge sharp money movement. However, given the API-Sports prediction's split (45% Home, 45% Draw), there might be conflicting opinions in the market, with some backing the draw due to H2H. Line movement: N/A (Odds not provided)
AI Same Game Parlay โ New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 6.36 (+536)
AI Confidence: 24%
$10 โ $63.64 | $25 โ $159.10 | $50 โ $318.20
Correlation: POSITIVE โ โ all legs support each other
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- โ ๏ธPhiladelphia Union's historically dominant head-to-head record against New England Revolution, which could act as a 'bogey team' factor.
- โ ๏ธThe high implied draw probability (45%) from the API-Sports prediction, despite advising a home win.
- โ ๏ธNew England Revolution's injuries, particularly in midfield, could affect their control of the game.
- โ ๏ธPhiladelphia Union's recent win, though breaking a losing streak, might provide a morale boost.
Model Confidence
โก68%
Data quality: High - Comprehensive team statistics, standings, API-Sports predictions, and recent news/injury reports were available.
Limitations
- โขLack of real-time odds data to compare against model probabilities.
- โขThe significant discrepancy between historical H2H and current form/Poisson model for the match outcome.
- โขSpecific lineup announcements for the exact match day (May 9, 2026) are not yet available, only general injury lists.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union โ FAQ
New England Revolution has a perfect home record this season, winning all three of their matches at Gillette Stadium, scoring 10 goals and conceding only 1.