MLSGeodis ParkSunday, May 24, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC
Kickoff in 20d 16h 57m

Nashville SC
vs

New York City FC
AI Pick: Nashville SC Win
Confidence: 46%
1X2: Nashville SC Win (46%)
O/U 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
BTTS: Yes

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Bet Nashville SC Win · AI confidence 46%
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Nashville SC vs New York City FC Prediction
Nashville SC is poised to continue their dominant home form against an injury-plagued New York City FC. Despite the absence of Nashville's top scorer, their overall strength and perfect home record against NYCFC make them strong favorites. NYCFC's extensive injury list and poor away form will make it challenging for them to secure a positive result.
MATCH RESULT
Nashville SC Win
Predicted: 2-1
46%
Nashville SC enters this match as the clear favorite, sitting atop the Eastern Conference with an impressive overall record and a perfect home record (4 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses). Their home form is particularly dominant, with an average of 4.0 goals scored and only 1.0 goal conceded per game. While Nashville will be without their leading scorer Sam Surridge due to a back injury, a significant blow to their attack, New York City FC faces even more extensive injury concerns, including key defensive and midfield players like Thiago Martins, Keaton Parks, Alonso Martínez, and Andrés Perea. NYCFC's away form is inconsistent (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses), and their overall standing is 8th in the conference. Historically, the head-to-head record is balanced (3 wins each, 2 draws in 8 meetings), but crucially, Nashville SC boasts a 100% home record against New York City FC, having not conceded a single goal in their prior two meetings at Geodis Park. The API-Sports prediction also favors Nashville SC, with a 60.2% total probability, despite a high suggested draw probability. Given Nashville's superior current form, strong home advantage, and NYCFC's extensive injury list, a home win is the most probable outcome, albeit with tempered confidence due to Surridge's absence and the inherent unpredictability of MLS matches.
TOTAL GOALS
Over 2.5 Goals
Total: 3.0
60%
Nashville SC's home matches have been high-scoring, averaging 5.0 total goals per game (16 goals for, 4 against in 4 home games). Even with Sam Surridge out, their attack is potent, and NYCFC's defense is weakened by multiple injuries. While NYCFC's away games are typically lower scoring, Nashville's offensive prowess at home is expected to drive the goal count up. Nashville has conceded in 3 of their 4 home games, and while NYCFC's away scoring is modest (0.8 goals per game), they have scored in 8 of their 10 overall matches, suggesting they could find the net against a Nashville defense that isn't impenetrable at home. Therefore, Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score 'Yes' are strong predictions.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
Yes
55%
Nashville SC's home matches have been high-scoring, averaging 5.0 total goals per game (16 goals for, 4 against in 4 home games). Even with Sam Surridge out, their attack is potent, and NYCFC's defense is weakened by multiple injuries. While NYCFC's away games are typically lower scoring, Nashville's offensive prowess at home is expected to drive the goal count up. Nashville has conceded in 3 of their 4 home games, and while NYCFC's away scoring is modest (0.8 goals per game), they have scored in 8 of their 10 overall matches, suggesting they could find the net against a Nashville defense that isn't impenetrable at home. Therefore, Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score 'Yes' are strong predictions.
📊 More Markets
⚽ Goal Markets
Total Goals (O/U 1.5)
Over 1.5
With Nashville's high-scoring home games and the expectation of at least two goals in the match, Over 1.5 Goals is a highly confident prediction.
Total Goals (O/U 3.5)
Under 3.5
While Over 2.5 Goals is expected, the absence of Nashville's top scorer Sam Surridge and NYCFC's generally lower-scoring away matches make pushing past 3.5 goals less certain. A 2-1 or 3-0 scoreline would fall under this market.
1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)
Over 0.5
Nashville SC's home games have seen a high number of first-half goals (10 goals in 4 games, averaging 2.5 per game). Given their offensive strength, it's highly probable that at least one goal will be scored in the first half.
First Team to Score
Home
Nashville SC has a formidable attack, especially at home, and has scored in all their home games. They are highly likely to open the scoring.
Goal in Both Halves
Yes
Given the expectation of multiple goals and Nashville's attacking style, it is likely that goals will be scored in both halves of the match.
Most Likely Score
2-1
Based on Nashville's strong home scoring and defensive record, combined with the expectation of NYCFC finding the net, a 2-1 victory for the home side is a plausible outcome.
BTTS 1st Half
No
While both teams are expected to score in the match, it is less common for both teams to find the net in the first half, especially with NYCFC's injury woes.
xG Based (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5 xG
Given the offensive capabilities of Nashville at home and the expected goals from both sides, the total xG for the match is likely to exceed 2.5.
🏆 Result Markets
Double Chance
1X
Nashville SC has a perfect home record this season and a 100% home head-to-head record against New York City FC. A home win or draw is a very safe bet.
Draw No Bet
Home
Given Nashville SC's strong home form and superior league position, they are the clear favorites. This market provides a safety net in case of a draw.
HT/FT
Home/Home
Nashville SC's dominant home form suggests they are likely to be leading at both halftime and fulltime, especially given their tendency for early goals at home.
📊 Team Stats
Total Corners (O/U 9.5)
Over 9.5
MLS matches typically see a good number of corners, and with both teams likely to attack, especially Nashville at home, opportunities for corners should be plentiful.
Total Cards (O/U 3.5)
Under 3.5
Nashville SC averages 1.7 yellow cards per game, and New York City FC averages 1.5 yellow cards per game. The combined average is 3.2, suggesting that Under 3.5 cards is a reasonable pick, though MLS matches can sometimes be feisty.
Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)
Over 8.5
Nashville's strong attack at home and NYCFC's weakened defense should lead to numerous scoring opportunities. Even with NYCFC's injuries, they will likely attempt shots, contributing to an overall higher shot on target count.
Total Shots (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
With Nashville's strong attack and both teams looking to create chances, a high volume of shots is anticipated.
Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
MLS matches are often competitive and physical, leading to a higher number of fouls. This is a standard expectation for the league.
Possession Winner
Home
As the home team and league leaders, Nashville SC is expected to control possession for larger periods of the game.
Nashville SC Clean Sheet
No
Nashville SC has conceded in 3 of their 4 home matches this season. While NYCFC's away scoring is not prolific, they have the capability to find the net. Conversely, NYCFC has not kept an away clean sheet this season and faces a formidable Nashville attack, making an away clean sheet highly unlikely.
New York City FC Clean Sheet
No
Nashville SC has conceded in 3 of their 4 home matches this season. While NYCFC's away scoring is not prolific, they have the capability to find the net. Conversely, NYCFC has not kept an away clean sheet this season and faces a formidable Nashville attack, making an away clean sheet highly unlikely.
Nashville SC vs New York City FC — Key Stats
Geodis Park
Home Ground
12:30 AM UTC
Sunday, May 24
Matchday kickoff
MLS
Soccer
Betting Angles — Nashville SC vs New York City FC
💰 Sharp Money
N/A (no odds provided) Line movement: N/A (no odds provided)
AI Same Game Parlay — Nashville SC vs New York City FC
🔥 RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 6.36 (+536)
AI Confidence: 16%
$10 → $63.64 | $25 → $159.10 | $50 → $318.20
Correlation: POSITIVE ✅ — all legs support each other
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- ⚠️Absence of Nashville SC's leading scorer, Sam Surridge, could impact goal-scoring.
- ⚠️MLS unpredictability and potential for upsets.
- ⚠️New York City FC's historical H2H (overall) is balanced, despite Nashville's strong home H2H.
- ⚠️The high draw probability (45%) suggested by API-Sports, despite predicting a Nashville win.
Model Confidence
⚡75%
Data quality: High - comprehensive team statistics, standings, H2H, and recent news/injury reports were available.
Limitations
- •Lack of real-time betting odds to identify value bets.
- •The exact impact of Sam Surridge's absence on Nashville's attack is difficult to quantify precisely.
- •The API-Sports prediction showing a high draw probability (45%) while simultaneously naming Nashville as the winner created a slight ambiguity, which was resolved by prioritizing the explicit winner and detailed H2H data.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Nashville SC vs New York City FC — FAQ
Nashville SC has a perfect home record this season, winning all 4 of their home matches.