Liga PortugalEstรกdio da MadeiraSunday, May 17, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC
Kickoff in 21d 11h 50m

Nacional
vs

Guimaraes
AI Pick: Guimaraes Win
Confidence: 46%
1X2: Guimaraes Win (46%)
O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
BTTS: No

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Nacional vs Guimaraes Prediction
This Liga Portugal match pits 13th-placed Nacional against 7th-placed Guimaraes. Guimaraes enters the match as the favorite due to their superior league position, better recent form, and a strong historical head-to-head record. The match is expected to be a low-scoring affair, typical of the league, with Guimaraes likely to secure a narrow victory.
MATCH RESULT
Guimaraes Win
Predicted: 0-1
46%
Guimaraes, currently 7th in the Liga Portugal standings, is in better recent form (WWDWL) compared to Nacional (WWLWL), who sit 13th. While Nacional has home advantage, their home record (5 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses) is not particularly strong. Guimaraes, despite a less impressive away record (4 wins, 2 draws, 9 losses), is the superior team based on league position and overall performance. The API-Sports comparison also favors Guimaraes (55% total) and indicates a significant H2H advantage (71% for away). Given the low-scoring nature of Liga Portugal, a tight match is expected, with Guimaraes likely to edge out a win.
TOTAL GOALS
Under 2.5 Goals
Total: 1.8
60%
Liga Portugal is a historically low-scoring league, averaging around 2.1 goals per match. Both Nacional and Guimaraes exhibit strong tendencies towards 'Under 2.5 Goals' in their individual statistics, with 87% and 90% of their respective matches falling below this threshold. Nacional averages 1.1 goals for and 1.3 against (2.4 total), while Guimaraes averages 1.2 goals for and 1.4 against (2.6 total). Given these figures and the league's nature, 'Under 2.5 Goals' is a highly confident pick. Furthermore, both teams have failed to score in approximately one-third of their matches, making 'Both Teams To Score - No' a probable outcome in a low-scoring affair.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
No
55%
Liga Portugal is a historically low-scoring league, averaging around 2.1 goals per match. Both Nacional and Guimaraes exhibit strong tendencies towards 'Under 2.5 Goals' in their individual statistics, with 87% and 90% of their respective matches falling below this threshold. Nacional averages 1.1 goals for and 1.3 against (2.4 total), while Guimaraes averages 1.2 goals for and 1.4 against (2.6 total). Given these figures and the league's nature, 'Under 2.5 Goals' is a highly confident pick. Furthermore, both teams have failed to score in approximately one-third of their matches, making 'Both Teams To Score - No' a probable outcome in a low-scoring affair.
๐ More Markets
โฝ Goal Markets
Total Goals (O/U 1.5)
Under 1.5
With a strong prediction for 'Under 2.5 Goals' and the league's low-scoring average, 'Under 1.5 Goals' is a very plausible outcome, especially if the game is a tight 0-0 or 0-1.
Total Goals (O/U 3.5)
Under 3.5
Given the league's average of 2.1 goals per game and both teams' strong 'Under 2.5 Goals' statistics, it is highly improbable for this match to exceed 3.5 goals.
1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)
Over 0.5
Despite the overall low-scoring nature of the league, a single goal in the first half is still a common occurrence. Both teams have scored and conceded in the first half in a reasonable percentage of their games, making 'Over 0.5 Goals' in the first half a slightly favored outcome.
First Team to Score
Away
As Guimaraes is the favored team with a stronger attack and overall form, they are more likely to open the scoring.
Goal in Both Halves
No
In a low-scoring league with a predicted low total goal count, it's less likely that goals will be scored in both halves. A single-goal game or a game with goals concentrated in one half is more probable.
Most Likely Score
0-1
Reflecting the low-scoring nature of Liga Portugal and the predicted narrow victory for Guimaraes, a 0-1 scoreline is the most probable exact score.
BTTS 1st Half
No
Given the low-scoring nature of the league and both teams' offensive struggles, it is highly unlikely that both teams will score in the first half.
xG Based (O/U 2.5)
Under 2.5 xG
Without specific xG data, this prediction aligns with the overall expectation of a low-scoring match in Liga Portugal, where high-quality chances are typically at a premium.
๐ Result Markets
Double Chance
X2
The API-Sports prediction explicitly advises 'Double chance: draw or Guimaraes'. Guimaraes is the stronger team, and even if they don't win outright, a draw is a plausible outcome given the competitive nature of the league and Nacional's home advantage.
Draw No Bet
Away
As Guimaraes is predicted to win, 'Draw No Bet - Away' offers a safer option, returning the stake if the match ends in a draw, while still backing the stronger team for a win.
HT/FT
Draw/Away
Given the expected tight and low-scoring affair, a goalless first half is plausible, with Guimaraes finding a breakthrough in the second half to secure the win.
๐ Team Stats
Total Corners (O/U 9.5)
Over 9.5
While specific corner data is unavailable, competitive Liga Portugal matches often see a decent number of corners as teams push for goals, especially in a tight game where attacking efforts might lead to deflections.
Total Cards (O/U 3.5)
Over 3.5
Both Nacional (90 yellow, 6 red) and Guimaraes (67 yellow, 3 red) accumulate a significant number of cards over the season. Liga Portugal matches can be physical, and with the stakes of a league game, a competitive encounter is likely to result in at least 4 cards.
Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)
Under 8.5
In a low-scoring league like Liga Portugal, and given that both teams have relatively modest attacking outputs, the number of clear-cut chances leading to shots on target is expected to be lower than in higher-scoring leagues. A tight match suggests fewer overall shots finding the target.
Total Shots (O/U 22.5)
Under 22.5
Consistent with the low-scoring prediction and expected fewer clear-cut chances, the overall volume of shots (on and off target) is likely to be lower than average.
Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
Liga Portugal matches are often competitive and can be physical. A tight game between two mid-table teams is likely to involve a fair number of fouls as both sides battle for possession and territory.
Possession Winner
Away
Guimaraes, as the higher-ranked and generally stronger team, is more likely to control possession for larger periods of the game, even if they are playing away from home.
Nacional Clean Sheet
No
Guimaraes is the stronger team defensively, and Nacional has a lower scoring average (1.1 goals per game). Guimaraes has kept 9 clean sheets this season (5 away), while Nacional has failed to score in 10 matches. It's more likely that Nacional will fail to score against Guimaraes than the other way around.
Guimaraes Clean Sheet
Yes
Guimaraes is the stronger team defensively, and Nacional has a lower scoring average (1.1 goals per game). Guimaraes has kept 9 clean sheets this season (5 away), while Nacional has failed to score in 10 matches. It's more likely that Nacional will fail to score against Guimaraes than the other way around.
Nacional vs Guimaraes โ Key Stats
Estรกdio da Madeira
Home Ground
4:00 PM UTC
Sunday, May 17
Matchday kickoff
Liga Portugal
Soccer
Betting Angles โ Nacional vs Guimaraes
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Without specific odds, it's impossible to determine sharp money movement. However, smart money would likely target the 'Under 2.5 Goals' market due to its high probability in Liga Portugal. Line movement: No odds provided, so no line movement analysis possible.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Nacional vs Guimaraes
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 6.36 (+536)
AI Confidence: 16%
$10 โ $63.64 | $25 โ $159.10 | $50 โ $318.20
Correlation: POSITIVE โ โ all legs support each other
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- โ ๏ธLow-scoring nature of Liga Portugal increases draw probability and makes exact score predictions challenging.
- โ ๏ธGuimaraes' away form is not overwhelmingly strong, despite their overall superiority.
- โ ๏ธNacional's home advantage, though not dominant, could still lead to an upset or a draw.
Model Confidence
โก75%
Data quality: High - Comprehensive team statistics, league standings, and API-Sports predictions were available.
Limitations
- โขLack of specific H2H match results and recent form details (only string provided).
- โขAbsence of real-time odds for value bet analysis.
- โขNo injury or suspension information available.
- โขNo detailed xG, corner, or card statistics for individual matches.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Nacional vs Guimaraes โ FAQ
Guimaraes is the most likely winner, but a draw is also a strong possibility given the competitive nature of Liga Portugal and Nacional's home advantage.