BrasileirãoSaturday, Apr 11, 2026, 9:30 PM UTC
Kickoff in 6h 58m
Mirassol
vs
Bahia
AI Pick: Bahia Win
Confidence: 75%
1X2: Bahia Win (⚡75%)
O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
BTTS: No
Mirassol vs Bahia Prediction
This Brasileirão fixture pits a high-flying Bahia, currently in a Copa Libertadores qualification spot, against a rock-bottom Mirassol, who are in the relegation zone and enduring a severe slump. Bahia's superior form, especially away from home, makes them strong favorites.
MATCH RESULT
Bahia Win
Predicted: 0-1
⚡75%
Bahia is in excellent form, sitting 5th in the league with a strong away record (3 wins in 4). Mirassol, conversely, is at the bottom of the table, having lost their last five matches and showing poor offensive output. Despite some minor injuries for Bahia, their overall squad strength and current momentum should be enough to overcome a struggling Mirassol side. The odds for an away win offer significant value.
TOTAL GOALS
Under 2.5 Goals
Total: 1.8
60%
Both teams have a strong tendency for low-scoring matches, with a high percentage of their games ending with under 2.5 goals (Mirassol 0/9 over, Bahia 1/9 over). Mirassol's attack is struggling, and Bahia's defense is robust (4 clean sheets in 9 games), suggesting that Mirassol may fail to score.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
No
55%
Both teams have a strong tendency for low-scoring matches, with a high percentage of their games ending with under 2.5 goals (Mirassol 0/9 over, Bahia 1/9 over). Mirassol's attack is struggling, and Bahia's defense is robust (4 clean sheets in 9 games), suggesting that Mirassol may fail to score.
📊 More Markets
⚽ Goal Markets
Total Goals (O/U 1.5)
Under 1.5
Given the strong trend for both teams to play low-scoring matches (Under 2.5), Under 1.5 goals is also a plausible outcome, especially if Mirassol fails to score.
Total Goals (O/U 3.5)
Under 3.5
Both teams have shown a very strong tendency for matches with under 3.5 goals (Mirassol 0/9 over, Bahia 0/9 over), making this a highly confident prediction.
1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)
Over 0.5
Bahia has a tendency to score in the first half (10 goals in 9 games, with a high percentage in the 31-45 minute range), and Mirassol has conceded 9 goals in the first half this season.
First Team to Score
Away
Bahia has a stronger attack and has scored in all their matches, while Mirassol has struggled offensively and conceded early in games.
Goal in Both Halves
No
Given the expectation of a low-scoring game, it's less likely that goals will be scored in both halves, especially if one team struggles to find the net.
Most Likely Score
0-1
This scoreline aligns with a Bahia win, Mirassol's difficulty in scoring, Bahia's solid defense, and the overall low-scoring trend observed for both teams.
BTTS 1st Half
No
Mirassol's weak attack and the overall low-scoring nature of the match make it unlikely for both teams to score in the first half.
xG Based (O/U 2.5)
Under 2.5 xG
Consistent with the low goal expectations derived from both teams' scoring and conceding averages, the expected goals (xG) are also likely to be low.
🏆 Result Markets
Double Chance
X2
Bahia's superior form and league position, combined with Mirassol's severe struggles, make a Bahia win or draw a highly probable outcome.
Draw No Bet
Away
Bahia is the clear favorite, and the Draw No Bet market offers protection in case of a draw, which is a reasonable outcome in a potentially tight match.
HT/FT
Away/Away
Bahia's tendency to score in the first half and their overall superiority suggest they could lead at halftime and maintain their advantage to win the match.
📊 Team Stats
Total Corners (O/U 9.5)
Under 9.5
Low-scoring games often feature fewer attacking phases and thus fewer corners. Brasileirão averages are typically around this mark, but the context points to slightly less.
Total Cards (O/U 3.5)
Over 3.5
Brasileirão is known for its physicality and high card counts. Both teams have accumulated a fair number of yellow cards this season.
Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)
Under 8.5
Given the expectation of a low-scoring game and Mirassol's struggling attack, there are likely to be fewer clear-cut chances and shots on target overall.
Total Shots (O/U 22.5)
Under 22.5
A low-scoring affair, particularly with one team struggling offensively, usually translates to fewer overall shots attempted by both sides.
Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
Brasileirão matches are typically physical and competitive, often resulting in a high number of fouls.
Possession Winner
Away
Bahia, as the stronger and more in-form team, is expected to control the midfield and dictate the pace of the game, leading to higher possession.
Mirassol Clean Sheet
No
Mirassol has not kept a single clean sheet this season and faces a Bahia side that has scored in every game. Bahia has 4 clean sheets this season and faces a struggling Mirassol attack that has failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Bahia Clean Sheet
Yes
Mirassol has not kept a single clean sheet this season and faces a Bahia side that has scored in every game. Bahia has 4 clean sheets this season and faces a struggling Mirassol attack that has failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Mirassol vs Bahia — Key Stats
Betting Angles — Mirassol vs Bahia
✅ Match Winner: Bahia
Bahia's superior form, league position, and strong away record make them undervalued at these odds against a Mirassol side in a severe slump. The model's probability for an away win is significantly higher than the implied probability from the bookmaker's odds.
💰 Sharp Money
Given Bahia's strong form and league position compared to Mirassol's struggles, it's likely that sharp money will be backing Bahia, either for a straight win or through safer markets like Draw No Bet or Double Chance. The discrepancy in odds might attract professional bettors seeking value. Line movement: Without specific data, it's hard to confirm, but if the current odds hold, there might be a movement towards Bahia as the match approaches, reflecting their superior performance and the market correcting for potential undervaluation.
AI Same Game Parlay — Mirassol vs Bahia
🔥 RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 6.36 (+536)
AI Confidence: 26%
$10 → $63.64 | $25 → $159.10 | $50 → $318.20
Correlation: POSITIVE ✅ — all legs support each other
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- ⚠️Bahia's injuries affecting team cohesion and performance, particularly in defense or midfield.
- ⚠️Mirassol playing with renewed desperation at home, leading to an unexpected resilient performance.
- ⚠️A potential low-scoring draw, which is always a possibility in Brasileirão matches.
- ⚠️An unexpected upset if Mirassol manages to capitalize on home advantage and Bahia's absences.
Model Confidence
⚡85%
Data quality: Good. Comprehensive team statistics, league standings, and injury reports were available and utilized for the analysis.
Limitations
- •Lack of specific head-to-head data between Mirassol and Bahia.
- •Absence of detailed player performance metrics (e.g., individual xG, assists).
- •No real-time news updates beyond the provided injury list, which could impact team selection or morale.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Mirassol vs Bahia — FAQ
Bahia's superior league form (5th vs 20th), strong away record (3 wins in 4), and Mirassol's current five-game losing streak are the primary factors driving the prediction for an away victory.