Ligue 1Parc Olympique LyonnaisSaturday, Apr 25, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC
Kickoff in 14d 20h 33m
Lyon
vs
Auxerre
AI Pick: Lyon Win
Confidence: 80%
1X2: Lyon Win (⚡80%)
O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
BTTS: No
Lyon vs Auxerre Prediction
Lyon are strong favorites to secure a home victory against a struggling Auxerre side. Lyon's excellent home form and superior league position contrast sharply with Auxerre's dire away record and battle against relegation. A low-scoring affair is anticipated.
MATCH RESULT
Lyon Win
Predicted: 2-0
⚡80%
Lyon, despite a recent dip in form (DLDDL), boasts a formidable home record with 9 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in 13 matches, scoring 1.6 goals per game and conceding only 0.8. They are currently 6th in the league and fighting for European qualification. Auxerre, on the other hand, is struggling at 16th place, deep in relegation playoff territory. Their away form is particularly poor, with only 1 win, 5 draws, and 8 losses in 14 matches, scoring a mere 0.7 goals per game and conceding 1.6. The statistical disparity in home/away performance and overall league position strongly favors Lyon. While API-Sports suggests a high probability for a draw or Auxerre win, our data-driven model finds this highly improbable given the teams' season-long performance metrics.
TOTAL GOALS
Under 2.5 Goals
Total: 2.2
60%
Lyon's home matches average 2.4 goals (1.6 GF, 0.8 GA), and Auxerre's away matches average 2.3 goals (0.7 GF, 1.6 GA). Both teams show a strong propensity for low-scoring affairs, with a high percentage of their games ending with under 2.5 goals. Auxerre's poor attacking output on the road further supports a 'No' for Both Teams To Score.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
No
55%
Lyon's home matches average 2.4 goals (1.6 GF, 0.8 GA), and Auxerre's away matches average 2.3 goals (0.7 GF, 1.6 GA). Both teams show a strong propensity for low-scoring affairs, with a high percentage of their games ending with under 2.5 goals. Auxerre's poor attacking output on the road further supports a 'No' for Both Teams To Score.
📊 More Markets
⚽ Goal Markets
Total Goals (O/U 1.5)
Over 1.5
While Under 2.5 goals is predicted, Lyon's average home goals of 1.6 alone makes Over 1.5 goals very likely. It's a low bar for a team of Lyon's caliber playing at home.
Total Goals (O/U 3.5)
Under 3.5
Given the strong prediction for Under 2.5 goals, it follows that Under 3.5 goals is an even more confident pick, aligning with both teams' historical goal statistics.
1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)
Over 0.5
Lyon scores 51% of their goals in the first half. Given their attacking strength at home against a weaker opponent, it's highly probable that at least one goal will be scored before halftime.
First Team to Score
Home
Lyon has a strong scoring record at home and has never failed to score there this season. Auxerre struggles to score away and often concedes first.
Goal in Both Halves
No
With a prediction of Under 2.5 goals and BTTS No, it's less likely for goals to occur in both halves, especially if Lyon secures an early lead and manages the game.
Most Likely Score
2-0
Based on Lyon's average home goals (1.6) and Auxerre's average away goals conceded (1.6), combined with Auxerre's low scoring away average (0.7), a 2-0 victory for Lyon is a plausible outcome.
BTTS 1st Half
No
Given the overall BTTS No prediction and the low-scoring nature of both teams, it's highly improbable for both teams to score in the first half.
xG Based (O/U 2.5)
Under 2.5 xG
Based on the predicted low total goals (2.2) and the historical scoring patterns of both teams, the combined Expected Goals (xG) for the match is likely to be under 2.5.
🏆 Result Markets
Double Chance
1X
Lyon's dominant home form combined with Auxerre's poor away record makes a home win or draw a very safe bet. Lyon has only lost 3 home games all season.
Draw No Bet
Home
Lyon is the clear favorite. In the event of a draw, the stake is returned, making 'Home DNB' a secure option given Lyon's superior quality and home advantage.
HT/FT
Home/Home
Lyon is expected to take an early lead given their attacking prowess at home and Auxerre's defensive vulnerabilities. They should maintain this lead to win the match.
📊 Team Stats
Total Corners (O/U 9.5)
Over 9.5
Lyon, playing at home and expected to dominate possession and attack, will likely generate a good number of corners. Auxerre, defending deep, may also concede several. This often leads to a higher corner count.
Total Cards (O/U 3.5)
Over 3.5
Lyon averages 1.86 yellow cards per game, and Auxerre averages 2.14. A combined average of 4 cards suggests this line is achievable, especially in a match where Auxerre will be fighting hard to avoid defeat.
Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)
Over 8.5
Lyon will be on the offensive, aiming for multiple shots on target. While Auxerre might have fewer, a combined effort, especially if Lyon is pushing for goals, should see the total exceed 8.5.
Total Shots (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
Lyon, as the dominant home side, will take many shots. Auxerre, while likely having fewer, will still contribute, pushing the total shots over this line.
Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
Ligue 1 matches typically feature a moderate to high number of fouls. Auxerre, fighting relegation, will likely play with intensity, leading to more fouls. Lyon will also commit fouls in their defensive duties.
Possession Winner
Home
Lyon is the stronger team playing at home and typically dominates possession against weaker opponents, especially when pushing for a win.
Lyon Clean Sheet
Yes
Lyon has a strong home defensive record with 7 clean sheets in 13 games. Auxerre struggles significantly to score away, failing to do so in 8 of 14 away matches. Conversely, Auxerre's away clean sheet record is poor (1 in 14), and Lyon has never failed to score at home this season.
Auxerre Clean Sheet
No
Lyon has a strong home defensive record with 7 clean sheets in 13 games. Auxerre struggles significantly to score away, failing to do so in 8 of 14 away matches. Conversely, Auxerre's away clean sheet record is poor (1 in 14), and Lyon has never failed to score at home this season.
Lyon vs Auxerre — Key Stats
Parc Olympique Lyonnais
Home Ground
1:00 PM UTC
Saturday, Apr 25
Matchday kickoff
Ligue 1
Soccer
Betting Angles — Lyon vs Auxerre
⚠️ Match Winner: Lyon
Lyon's strong home record (9W-1D-3L) against Auxerre's abysmal away form (1W-5D-8L) makes Lyon a clear favorite. Assuming typical odds of 1.60, our model's 80% probability indicates significant value.
⚠️ Total Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
Both teams exhibit a strong tendency for low-scoring games. Lyon's home games average 2.4 goals, while Auxerre's away games average 2.3 goals. Lyon has gone Under 2.5 goals in 23 of 28 total matches, and Auxerre in 24 of 28. This market presents excellent value.
⚠️ Both Teams To Score: No
Lyon has kept 7 clean sheets in 13 home games (54%), and Auxerre has failed to score in 8 of their 14 away games (57%). Given Auxerre's struggles to score on the road, a 'No' on BTTS is a high-probability outcome.
💰 Sharp Money
The API-Sports prediction of 'Draw or Auxerre' suggests that some sharp money might be on the underdog or draw, possibly due to specific H2H trends or unstated factors. However, based on the provided stats, this would be a contrarian bet. Line movement: N/A (Odds not provided, so line movement cannot be assessed).
AI Same Game Parlay — Lyon vs Auxerre
🔥 RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 6.36 (+536)
AI Confidence: 28%
$10 → $63.64 | $25 → $159.10 | $50 → $318.20
Correlation: POSITIVE ✅ — all legs support each other
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- ⚠️Lyon's recent inconsistent form (DLDDL) could lead to complacency or an unexpected struggle.
- ⚠️Auxerre's desperate fight against relegation might inspire a highly defensive and resilient performance.
- ⚠️The API-Sports prediction of a high chance for Draw/Away suggests potential underlying factors not captured by standard stats, though our model strongly contradicts this.
Model Confidence
⚡85%
Data quality: The provided team statistics and standings are comprehensive and of high quality, allowing for a robust statistical analysis.
Limitations
- •Absence of Head-to-Head (H2H) statistics.
- •No current betting odds provided, requiring assumption for value bet calculations.
- •Lack of detailed player-specific form or injury reports beyond one player.
- •No Expected Goals (xG) data for individual matches or teams.
- •Discrepancy with API-Sports prediction, which might indicate unprovided contextual factors.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Lyon vs Auxerre — FAQ
Lyon has a strong home record with 9 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in 13 matches, scoring 21 goals and conceding only 10.