Ligue 1Stade Pierre-MauroySunday, May 3, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC
Kickoff in 21d 10h 43m
Lille
vs
Le Havre
AI Pick: Lille Win
Confidence: 88%
1X2: Lille Win (โก88%)
O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
BTTS: No
Lille vs Le Havre Prediction
Lille is strongly favored to win this Ligue 1 encounter against a struggling Le Havre side. Lille's superior form, home advantage, and motivation for a Champions League spot contrast sharply with Le Havre's poor away record and relegation battle. A comfortable home victory with a clean sheet is the most probable outcome.
MATCH RESULT
Lille Win
Predicted: 2-0
โก88%
Lille, currently 4th in Ligue 1 and vying for a Champions League qualification spot, boasts a strong home record with 8 wins, 3 draws, and only 3 losses. They average 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded at home. Le Havre, sitting 14th and battling relegation, has a dismal away record with just 1 win, 3 draws, and 9 losses, averaging a mere 0.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on the road. Lille's superior form, home advantage, and higher stakes in the league make them clear favorites. Le Havre's struggles to score away from home are a significant factor.
TOTAL GOALS
Under 2.5 Goals
Total: 2.2
60%
Lille's home matches average 2.64 goals, while Le Havre's away matches average 2.3 goals. However, Le Havre's extremely poor away scoring record (0.5 goals per game, failed to score in 8/13 away matches) heavily influences the total. Lille's defense at home is solid, conceding 1.0 goals per game. A 2-0 victory for Lille is the most probable outcome, leading to Under 2.5 goals and 'No' for Both Teams To Score.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
No
55%
Lille's home matches average 2.64 goals, while Le Havre's away matches average 2.3 goals. However, Le Havre's extremely poor away scoring record (0.5 goals per game, failed to score in 8/13 away matches) heavily influences the total. Lille's defense at home is solid, conceding 1.0 goals per game. A 2-0 victory for Lille is the most probable outcome, leading to Under 2.5 goals and 'No' for Both Teams To Score.
๐ More Markets
โฝ Goal Markets
Total Goals (O/U 1.5)
Over 1.5
Lille alone averages 1.6 goals at home. It's highly probable they will score at least two goals against a struggling Le Havre defense, pushing the total over 1.5 goals.
Total Goals (O/U 3.5)
Under 3.5
While Lille is strong, their average home goals is 1.6, and Le Havre's contribution is expected to be minimal. A 3-0 or 2-1 scoreline would hit this, but anything higher is less likely given Le Havre's struggles.
1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)
Over 0.5
Lille is a strong attacking side at home and will look to establish dominance early. They score 26% of their goals in the first half. Given Le Havre's defensive vulnerabilities, it's highly probable at least one goal will be scored before halftime.
First Team to Score
Home
Lille's attacking strength at home and Le Havre's defensive posture and poor away scoring make it highly probable that Lille will open the scoring.
Goal in Both Halves
Yes
Lille has a tendency to score throughout the game, with a significant portion of goals coming in the second half (47.83% in 76-90 mins). If they score early, they are likely to add another in the second half, or vice versa.
Most Likely Score
2-0
Based on Lille's average home goals (1.6) and Le Havre's average away goals conceded (1.8), combined with Le Havre's inability to score away, a 2-0 scoreline for Lille is a strong possibility.
BTTS 1st Half
No
Le Havre's away scoring is very poor, and it's highly unlikely they will manage to score in the first half, especially against a strong Lille defense.
xG Based (O/U 2.5)
Under 2.5 xG
Based on the predicted score of 2-0 and Le Havre's low attacking output, the cumulative Expected Goals (xG) for the match is likely to stay below 2.5. Lille might generate around 1.5-2.0 xG, while Le Havre will be significantly lower.
๐ Result Markets
Double Chance
1X
Lille's strong home record (8 wins, 3 draws in 14 games) against Le Havre's weak away form (1 win, 3 draws, 9 losses in 13 games) makes a Lille win or draw almost certain.
Draw No Bet
Home
Given Lille's significant advantage in form, quality, and home ground, they are highly expected to win this match. The draw no bet market provides a safety net in case of an unlikely draw.
HT/FT
Home/Home
Lille is expected to start strong and dominate from the outset. They should be leading at halftime and maintain that lead to secure the victory.
๐ Team Stats
Total Corners (O/U 9.5)
Over 9.5
Lille, as the dominant home team, will likely spend significant time in Le Havre's half, generating numerous attacking opportunities and corners. Le Havre's defensive posture might also lead to clearing balls out for corners.
Total Cards (O/U 3.5)
Over 3.5
Both teams average around 2 yellow cards per game. Le Havre, fighting relegation, will likely play with intensity and commit fouls to break up Lille's attacks. Lille also has a decent card count. A competitive Ligue 1 match often sees 4 or more cards.
Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)
Over 8.5
Lille's attacking prowess at home suggests they will register a good number of shots on target. Even with a defensive Le Havre, Lille should hit 6-8 shots on target, and Le Havre might manage 2-3 on counter-attacks or set pieces.
Total Shots (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
Lille will dominate possession and take many shots at home. Le Havre will also attempt some shots, even if few are on target. This combined total should exceed 22.5.
Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
Ligue 1 matches often feature a decent number of fouls. With Le Havre likely to defend deep and Lille pressing, a combined total of over 22.5 fouls is a reasonable expectation for a competitive match.
Possession Winner
Home
Lille is the stronger team playing at home and will dictate the tempo of the game, naturally leading to higher possession against a team expected to sit back and defend.
Lille Clean Sheet
Yes
Le Havre has a very poor away scoring record (0.5 goals/game) and has failed to score in over 60% of their away matches. Lille's home defense is solid. It's highly likely Lille will keep a clean sheet, while Le Havre is very unlikely to.
Le Havre Clean Sheet
No
Le Havre has a very poor away scoring record (0.5 goals/game) and has failed to score in over 60% of their away matches. Lille's home defense is solid. It's highly likely Lille will keep a clean sheet, while Le Havre is very unlikely to.
Lille vs Le Havre โ Key Stats
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Home Ground
1:00 PM UTC
Sunday, May 3
Matchday kickoff
Ligue 1
Soccer
Betting Angles โ Lille vs Le Havre
โ Match Winner: Lille
Lille's strong home form and motivation for Champions League qualification against a struggling Le Havre side with a poor away record makes a home win highly probable. The assumed odds of 1.50 offer significant value compared to our model's probability.
โ Both Teams To Score: No
Le Havre has failed to score in 8 out of their 13 away matches this season, averaging only 0.5 goals per away game. Lille has kept 5 clean sheets at home. This suggests a high likelihood that at least one team, most likely Le Havre, will not score.
โ Total Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
While Lille is strong at home, Le Havre's defensive approach away and their inability to score often (0.5 away average) points to a lower-scoring affair. A 2-0 Lille win is a highly plausible scoreline, keeping the total under 2.5 goals.
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Sharp money would likely be on Lille to cover a reasonable handicap or on specific goal markets like BTTS No, given Le Havre's attacking struggles. Line movement: Expect the odds for a Lille win to shorten as kick-off approaches, especially if early betting trends confirm strong support for the home side. The odds for Under 2.5 goals might also see some movement if the market aligns with Le Havre's poor scoring record.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Lille vs Le Havre
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 6.36 (+536)
AI Confidence: 31%
$10 โ $63.64 | $25 โ $159.10 | $50 โ $318.20
Correlation: POSITIVE โ โ all legs support each other
Risk Assessment
Low Risk- โ ๏ธLe Havre's desperate fight against relegation could lead to an unexpectedly resilient defensive performance.
- โ ๏ธLille potentially underestimating their opponent, leading to complacency.
- โ ๏ธA rare off-day for Lille's attack, despite their dominance.
Model Confidence
โก85%
Data quality: Good. Comprehensive team statistics and league standings were provided, allowing for a detailed analysis of form, goals, and home/away performance.
Limitations
- โขNo specific head-to-head statistics between Lille and Le Havre were provided.
- โขCurrent odds were not available, requiring assumptions for value bet calculations.
- โขNo injury or suspension reports were included, which could impact team strength.
- โขNo detailed tactical information or recent team news beyond form strings.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Lille vs Le Havre โ FAQ
Lille is in strong form, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five league matches (WWWDW), showing good momentum.