Ligue 1Stade Pierre-MauroySunday, May 17, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Kickoff in 21d 14h 52m

Lille
vs

Auxerre
AI Pick: Lille Win
Confidence: 35%
1X2: Lille Win (35%)
O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
BTTS: No

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Bet Lille Win ยท AI confidence 35%
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Lille vs Auxerre Prediction
Lille is strongly favored to win this Ligue 1 encounter against Auxerre. Lille's superior league position, excellent recent form, and strong home record contrast sharply with Auxerre's struggles, particularly away from home, and their precarious position in the relegation zone. A low-scoring match is anticipated, with Lille likely securing a comfortable victory.
MATCH RESULT
Lille Win
Predicted: 2-0
35%
Lille, currently 4th in Ligue 1, is in excellent form (4 wins, 1 draw in last 5 league matches) and boasts a strong home record (8 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses). They are pushing for a Champions League qualification spot. Auxerre, on the other hand, is struggling at 16th place, occupying a relegation playoff spot, and has a very poor away record (1 win, 6 draws, 9 losses). Their recent form is also weak (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss in last 5). The API-Sports comparison heavily favors Lille across all metrics (Form 68% vs 32%, Attack 58% vs 42%, Defense 75% vs 25%, H2H 85% vs 15%, Poisson 71% vs 29%), with an overall 70.7% chance for Lille. While API-Sports suggests 'Win or draw' for Lille, the overwhelming statistical advantage and current league context point to a clear home victory.
TOTAL GOALS
Under 2.5 Goals
Total: 2.0
60%
Both teams show a strong tendency for low-scoring matches, with Lille's games going under 2.5 goals in 77% of cases and Auxerre's in 87%. Lille averages 1.5 goals scored at home and concedes 0.9, while Auxerre averages 0.9 goals away and concedes 1.7. Auxerre has failed to score in 50% of their away matches, and Lille keeps a clean sheet in 40% of home games. This suggests a tight game with few goals, likely favoring Lille to win without conceding.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
No
55%
Both teams show a strong tendency for low-scoring matches, with Lille's games going under 2.5 goals in 77% of cases and Auxerre's in 87%. Lille averages 1.5 goals scored at home and concedes 0.9, while Auxerre averages 0.9 goals away and concedes 1.7. Auxerre has failed to score in 50% of their away matches, and Lille keeps a clean sheet in 40% of home games. This suggests a tight game with few goals, likely favoring Lille to win without conceding.
๐ More Markets
โฝ Goal Markets
Total Goals (O/U 1.5)
Over 1.5
While Under 2.5 goals is favored, a 2-0 scoreline (our exact score prediction) still results in Over 1.5 goals. Given Lille's attacking strength at home against Auxerre's defense, at least two goals in the match is a reasonable expectation.
Total Goals (O/U 3.5)
Under 3.5
With both teams showing a strong tendency for low-scoring games and an 'Under 2.5 Goals' prediction, it is highly improbable that the match will see 4 or more goals. Under 3.5 goals is a very confident pick.
1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)
Over 0.5
While a low-scoring game is expected overall, both teams have shown a propensity to score or concede in the first half. Lille scores 26% of their goals in the first half, and Auxerre scores 56% of theirs. It's common for at least one goal to be scored before halftime in Ligue 1.
First Team to Score
Home
Lille, playing at home and being the stronger attacking side, is much more likely to open the scoring against an Auxerre team that struggles to create chances and score, especially away from home.
Goal in Both Halves
No
Given the expectation of a low-scoring match (Under 2.5 goals) and a predicted score of 2-0, it's plausible that all goals could occur in one half, or that one half is goalless. 'No' is slightly favored over 'Yes'.
Most Likely Score
2-0
Based on Lille's average home goals (1.53) and Auxerre's average away goals conceded (1.69), combined with Auxerre's low scoring rate away (0.88) and Lille's strong home defense, a 2-0 victory for Lille is the most plausible exact score.
BTTS 1st Half
No
With an overall BTTS 'No' prediction and a low-scoring expectation, it's highly unlikely that both teams will manage to score in the first half alone.
xG Based (O/U 2.5)
Under 2.5 xG
Given the strong statistical indication for Under 2.5 actual goals and Auxerre's low attacking output, it's reasonable to infer that the combined Expected Goals (xG) for the match will also be under 2.5.
๐ Result Markets
Double Chance
1X
Lille is a strong favorite at home against a struggling Auxerre side. The API-Sports prediction also suggests 'Lille or draw', making '1X' a very safe bet with high confidence.
Draw No Bet
Home
Given Lille's superior form, home advantage, and league position, they are the clear favorites to win. A Draw No Bet on Home offers protection in case of an unlikely draw, but a straight home win is expected.
HT/FT
Home/Home
Lille is expected to dominate from the start at home. Given their strong form and Auxerre's struggles, it's likely Lille will lead at halftime and maintain their advantage to win the match.
๐ Team Stats
Total Corners (O/U 9.5)
Over 9.5
Ligue 1 matches generally average around 9-10 corners. With Lille pushing for goals and Auxerre likely defending deep, there should be enough attacking play and clearances to generate a moderate number of corners.
Total Cards (O/U 3.5)
Over 3.5
Lille averages 2.2 yellow cards per match, and Auxerre averages 2.06. A combined average of over 4 cards suggests that exceeding 3.5 cards is likely, especially in a match where Auxerre will be fighting relegation and Lille for European spots.
Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)
Over 8.5
Lille, as the dominant home team, will likely generate a significant number of shots on target. Auxerre, even if defensive, will likely have a few attempts. This combined effort should push the total over 8.5.
Total Shots (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
Lille will be on the offensive, taking many shots. Auxerre will also attempt shots, even if fewer, contributing to a total that should exceed 22.5.
Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
Ligue 1 matches are often physical. With Auxerre fighting relegation and Lille pushing for European qualification, the intensity of the game is likely to result in a higher number of fouls.
Possession Winner
Home
As the stronger team playing at home and expected to dominate, Lille will likely control the majority of possession throughout the match.
Lille Clean Sheet
Yes
Lille has a strong home defense, keeping clean sheets in 40% of their home games. Auxerre struggles to score away, failing to do so in 50% of their away matches, and has only managed one away clean sheet all season. It's highly probable Lille will keep a clean sheet, while Auxerre will not.
Auxerre Clean Sheet
No
Lille has a strong home defense, keeping clean sheets in 40% of their home games. Auxerre struggles to score away, failing to do so in 50% of their away matches, and has only managed one away clean sheet all season. It's highly probable Lille will keep a clean sheet, while Auxerre will not.
Lille vs Auxerre โ Key Stats
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Home Ground
7:00 PM UTC
Sunday, May 17
Matchday kickoff
Ligue 1
Soccer
Betting Angles โ Lille vs Auxerre
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Sharp money would likely be on Lille to win, potentially combined with Under 2.5 goals or BTTS No, given the strong statistical backing for these outcomes. Line movement: If odds were available, we would expect the line for Lille to win to shorten, reflecting confidence in their victory, and the Under 2.5 goals line to also shorten.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Lille vs Auxerre
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 6.36 (+536)
AI Confidence: 12%
$10 โ $63.64 | $25 โ $159.10 | $50 โ $318.20
Correlation: POSITIVE โ โ all legs support each other
Risk Assessment
Low Risk- โ ๏ธAuxerre's desperate fight against relegation could lead to an unexpectedly resilient performance.
- โ ๏ธLille might underestimate Auxerre or suffer from complacency.
- โ ๏ธA rare high-scoring game could occur, despite statistical indicators.
Model Confidence
โก80%
Data quality: High. Comprehensive team statistics, recent form, and league standings were available for both teams.
Limitations
- โขNo specific H2H match results were provided, only API-Sports comparison percentages.
- โขNo injury or suspension information was available.
- โขNo real-time odds were provided, limiting value bet identification.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Lille vs Auxerre โ FAQ
Lille is highly favored to win this match due to their strong form, home advantage, and Auxerre's struggles, especially away from home.