Liga MXLiga MX

Sunday, Apr 19, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

Kickoff in 7d 12h 27m

Leon

Leon

vs

FC Juarez

FC Juarez

68%
13%
19%
LeonDrawFC Juarez

AI Pick: Leon Win

Confidence: 65%

1X2: Leon Win (โšก65%)

O/U 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals

BTTS: Yes

Leon vs FC Juarez Prediction

This Liga MX clash between Leon and FC Juarez is expected to be a competitive encounter. Leon holds a slight advantage playing at home, where they have shown better form in the Clausura. Both teams have a tendency to score and concede, suggesting an open game with goals.

AI-powered prediction

MATCH RESULT

Leon Win

Predicted: 2-1

โšก65%

Leon, despite an inconsistent overall season, has shown better form at home in the Clausura, with 4 wins out of 6 games. FC Juarez's away form is less convincing (2 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). While the API-Sports prediction indicates a high probability for a draw (45%), Leon's home advantage and recent winning streak (3 wins before 2 losses in Clausura) suggest they have the edge to secure a narrow victory. Both teams concede regularly, making a 2-1 scoreline plausible.

TOTAL GOALS

Over 2.5 Goals

Total: 2.9

60%

Leon averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded at home. FC Juarez averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.7 goals conceded away. The combined average expected goals for the match is approximately 2.9, leaning towards 'Over 2.5 Goals'. Both teams have a high propensity to score and concede, with Leon failing to score in only 13% of home games and Juarez in 17% of away games, while both concede in over 80% of their respective home/away matches, making BTTS 'Yes' highly probable.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

Yes

55%

Leon averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded at home. FC Juarez averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.7 goals conceded away. The combined average expected goals for the match is approximately 2.9, leaning towards 'Over 2.5 Goals'. Both teams have a high propensity to score and concede, with Leon failing to score in only 13% of home games and Juarez in 17% of away games, while both concede in over 80% of their respective home/away matches, making BTTS 'Yes' highly probable.

๐Ÿ“Š More Markets

โšฝ Goal Markets

Total Goals (O/U 1.5)

Over 1.5

85%

With an average expected total of 2.9 goals, scoring at least two goals in the match is a very high probability.

Total Goals (O/U 3.5)

Under 3.5

60%

While 'Over 2.5 Goals' is predicted, the average of 2.9 goals doesn't strongly suggest a high-scoring affair with 4 or more goals. Both teams' individual 'over 2.5 goals' stats are quite low, indicating fewer blowout results.

1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)

Over 0.5

85%

Both Leon and FC Juarez have a history of scoring and conceding goals in the first half. Leon scores 14 goals in the first half (out of 30 total) and concedes 24 (out of 55). Juarez scores 24 (out of 52) and concedes 28 (out of 58). This indicates a high likelihood of at least one goal before halftime.

First Team to Score

Home

60%

Leon has the home advantage and a slightly better attacking record at home in the Clausura. While Juarez can score early, Leon is marginally more likely to open the scoring.

Goal in Both Halves

Yes

70%

With both teams expected to score and the prediction of 'Over 2.5 Goals', it's likely that goals will be distributed across both halves of the match.

Most Likely Score

2-1

20%

A 2-1 scoreline for Leon aligns with the prediction of a narrow home win, 'Over 2.5 Goals', and 'BTTS Yes', reflecting both teams' scoring and conceding tendencies. Exact scores are inherently difficult to predict, hence the low confidence.

BTTS 1st Half

No

60%

While both teams are capable of scoring in the first half, it's less common for both to find the net before the break. The first half might be more cautious before opening up.

xG Based (O/U 2.5)

Over 2.5 xG

65%

Given the predicted total goals of 2.9 and the attacking tendencies of both teams, the cumulative Expected Goals (xG) for the match is likely to exceed 2.5, indicating a game with multiple clear-cut chances.

๐Ÿ† Result Markets

Double Chance

1X

80%

Based on Leon's home advantage and the API-Sports model suggesting a 45% chance for a home win and 45% for a draw, the 'Leon or Draw' double chance is a highly probable outcome.

Draw No Bet

Home

65%

While a draw is a strong possibility, Leon holds the home advantage and has shown better recent form in the Clausura, making them the more likely winner if the match doesn't end in a stalemate.

HT/FT

Draw/Home

30%

Given the potential for a tight first half and Leon's home advantage to eventually prevail, a Draw at halftime followed by a Leon win at fulltime is a plausible scenario. However, this market is highly speculative.

๐Ÿ“Š Team Stats

Total Corners (O/U 9.5)

Over 9.5

60%

Liga MX matches often feature an open style of play, leading to a decent number of corners. Both teams will likely push for goals, contributing to corner opportunities.

Total Cards (O/U 3.5)

Over 3.5

80%

Leon averages 2.29 yellow cards per game, and FC Juarez averages 2.49. The combined average of nearly 4.8 yellow cards per game strongly suggests 'Over 3.5' cards in what is expected to be a competitive Liga MX fixture.

Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)

Over 8.5

60%

Given both teams' attacking averages and defensive vulnerabilities, an open game with multiple scoring chances is expected, leading to a good number of shots on target.

Total Shots (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

60%

Given the attacking nature of both teams and their defensive vulnerabilities, an active game with numerous attempts on goal is anticipated.

Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

65%

Liga MX matches are often competitive and physical, leading to a higher number of fouls. A total of over 22.5 fouls is a reasonable expectation for this type of fixture.

Possession Winner

Home

55%

Playing at home, Leon will likely aim to control the tempo and possession, leveraging their home support to dictate play.

Leon Clean Sheet

No

85%

Leon has kept a clean sheet in only 3 of 15 home games (20%), while FC Juarez has managed only 1 clean sheet in 17 away games (6%). Both teams consistently concede goals, making clean sheets for either side unlikely.

FC Juarez Clean Sheet

No

85%

Leon has kept a clean sheet in only 3 of 15 home games (20%), while FC Juarez has managed only 1 clean sheet in 17 away games (6%). Both teams consistently concede goals, making clean sheets for either side unlikely.

Leon vs FC Juarez โ€” Key Stats

LeonStatFC Juarez
6th โœ…League Position12th
19 โœ…Points16
31 Games Playedโœ… 35
9 Winsโœ… 11
5 โœ…Draws10
30 Goals Scoredโœ… 52
55 โœ…Goals Conceded58
1.0 Goals Per Gameโœ… 1.5
6 โœ…Clean Sheets3
LLWWW โœ…Recent FormDWDDL

Betting Angles โ€” Leon vs FC Juarez

โš ๏ธ Draw: Draw

The API-Sports prediction gives a 45% chance for a draw, which is significantly higher than the implied probability from the market odds (27.8%). This indicates a strong value opportunity for a draw, suggesting the market might be underpricing this outcome.

โš ๏ธ Double Chance: 1X

Combining the API-Sports probabilities for a Leon win (45%) and a draw (45%) gives a 90% chance for 'Leon or Draw'. Estimating the market odds for 1X around 1.38 (implied prob 72.4%), this offers a substantial edge, aligning with the API-Sports advice for 'Leon or draw'.

๐Ÿ’ฐ Sharp Money

Without access to live betting data, it's difficult to pinpoint sharp money movement. However, the discrepancy between API-Sports' draw probability and market odds might attract sharp bettors to the draw. Line movement: No specific line movement data is available. Given the initial odds, any significant shift towards the draw or away win would be noteworthy.

AI Same Game Parlay โ€” Leon vs FC Juarez

๐Ÿ”ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP

3-Leg
Leon Win2.00
Over 2.5 Goals1.85
BTTS: Yes1.72

Combined Odds: 6.36 (+536)

AI Confidence: 23%

$10 โ†’ $63.64 | $25 โ†’ $159.10 | $50 โ†’ $318.20

Correlation: POSITIVE โœ… โ€” all legs support each other

Risk Assessment

Medium Risk
6/10
  • โš ๏ธInconsistent form of both teams makes the outcome less predictable.
  • โš ๏ธHigh probability of a draw as indicated by API-Sports model (45%).
  • โš ๏ธLack of specific head-to-head data limits historical trend analysis.
  • โš ๏ธPotential for individual errors given both teams' defensive records.

Model Confidence

โšก75%

Data quality: The provided team statistics and standings are comprehensive for the current season, offering a solid foundation for analysis. The API-Sports prediction reference is also a valuable input.

Limitations

  • โ€ขLack of specific head-to-head statistics.
  • โ€ขAbsence of injury reports for both teams.
  • โ€ขNo detailed tactical information or recent player performance data.
  • โ€ขAPI-Sports Win% for Draw (45%) is unusually high compared to market odds, requiring careful interpretation.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.

Leon vs FC Juarez โ€” FAQ

Based on current form and home advantage, a Leon win is the most likely outcome, though a draw is also highly probable according to advanced models.