How does Burnley perform away from home?

Burnley has a very poor away record, having won only 2, drawn 3, and lost 11 of their 16 away matches. They've conceded a high 38 goals on the road, averaging 2.38 goals against per game.

Are many goals expected in this match?

Yes, a relatively high number of goals is expected. Burnley's away games average 3.5 goals, and Leeds' home games average 2.63 goals. We predict 'Over 2.5 Goals' for the match.

Will both teams score?

Yes, 'Both Teams To Score' is highly probable. Leeds has scored in 68.75% of their home games, and Burnley has scored in 75% of their away games, while Burnley has conceded in all of their away matches.

What is the significance of this match for both teams?

This is a crucial relegation battle. Leeds (15th) needs points to solidify their position above the drop zone, while Burnley (19th) is in desperate need of a win to keep their slim survival hopes alive.

What are the key strengths for Leeds in this fixture?

Leeds' key strengths include their home advantage at Elland Road, a relatively better defensive record than Burnley, and Burnley's significant struggles in away matches, particularly their high rate of goals conceded on the road.

Premier LeagueElland Road

Friday, May 1, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Kickoff in 21d 2h 34m

Leeds

Burnley

78%

14%

LeedsDrawBurnley

AI Pick: Leeds Win

Confidence: 75%

Leeds

78%

14%

LeedsDrawBurnley

AI Pick: Leeds Win

Confidence: 75%

Burnley

1X2: Leeds Win (⚡75%)

O/U 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals

BTTS: Yes

Leeds vs Burnley Prediction

This Premier League clash at Elland Road pits 15th-placed Leeds against 19th-placed Burnley in a critical relegation battle. Leeds holds a significant home advantage and a better overall league standing, while Burnley's away form is particularly concerning. Expect a competitive match with goals, likely favoring the home side.

AI-powered prediction

MATCH RESULT

Leeds Win

Predicted: 2-1

⚡75%

Leeds, playing at home, has a significantly better record than Burnley's abysmal away form. Burnley has lost 11 of their 16 away games, conceding an average of 2.38 goals per game. While Leeds' recent form has been inconsistent, their home advantage and Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities make them strong favorites. The match is crucial for both teams in the relegation battle, but Leeds' superior home performance should prevail.

TOTAL GOALS

Over 2.5 Goals

Total: 3.0

60%

Burnley's away matches average 3.5 goals, with their defense being particularly leaky (2.38 goals conceded per away game). Leeds' home games average 2.63 goals. Both teams have a high propensity to score and concede, with Leeds scoring in 68.75% of home games and Burnley scoring in 75% of away games, while Burnley has conceded in 100% of their away matches. This combination strongly favors 'Over 2.5 Goals' and 'Both Teams To Score - Yes', with an expected total of around 3 goals.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

Yes

55%

📊 More Markets

⚽ Goal Markets

Total Goals (O/U 1.5)

Over 1.5

85%

With a strong expectation for 'Over 2.5 Goals' and 'BTTS - Yes', it is highly probable that there will be at least two goals in the match.

Total Goals (O/U 3.5)

Under 3.5

60%

While 'Over 2.5 Goals' is favored, a total of four or more goals might be a stretch for these two teams, especially given Leeds' slightly lower home scoring average. It's a relegation battle, so caution might lead to fewer goals.

1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)

Over 0.5

85%

Both teams have shown a tendency to score and concede in the first half. Burnley, in particular, has conceded 32 goals in the first half this season. It's highly probable that at least one goal will be scored before halftime.

First Team to Score

Home

70%

Leeds has a decent home attack, and Burnley has a tendency to concede early goals, especially away from home (10 goals conceded in the first 15 minutes away).

Goal in Both Halves

Yes

70%

Given the expectation for multiple goals and both teams to score, it's likely that the scoring action will be spread across both halves of the match.

Most Likely Score

2-1

20%

Based on Leeds' average home goals (1.38) and Burnley's average away goals conceded (2.38), coupled with Burnley's ability to score away (1.13 goals per game), a 2-1 victory for Leeds is a plausible outcome.

BTTS 1st Half

60%

While both teams are likely to score in the match, it's less common for both to find the net in the first half, especially in a tense relegation fixture where teams might be more cautious initially.

xG Based (O/U 2.5)

Over 2.5 xG

65%

Consistent with the prediction for 'Over 2.5 Goals', the expected quality of chances created by both teams should collectively surpass 2.5 xG, especially given Burnley's defensive struggles.

🏆 Result Markets

Double Chance

85%

Leeds' home record is significantly stronger than Burnley's away record. A Leeds win or draw is a highly probable outcome, offering a safer bet given the context of the match.

Draw No Bet

Home

75%

Leeds is the stronger side at home and is favored to win. The 'Draw No Bet' market provides security in case the match ends in a draw, returning the stake.

HT/FT

Draw/Home

50%

Leeds has a tendency for draws, and matches can often be tight in the first half, especially in high-pressure games. However, Leeds' home advantage and Burnley's defensive frailties suggest Leeds can secure the win in the second half.

📊 Team Stats

Total Corners (O/U 9.5)

Over 9.5

70%

In a crucial relegation battle, both teams will be pushing for goals, leading to more attacking play, shots, and ultimately, corners. The intensity of the match should drive the corner count up.

Total Cards (O/U 3.5)

Over 3.5

75%

Both teams average over 1.6 yellow cards per game. Given the high stakes of a relegation six-pointer, the match is expected to be feisty and competitive, increasing the likelihood of multiple bookings.

Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)

Over 8.5

65%

Leeds will be looking to exploit Burnley's weak away defense, while Burnley will be desperate for goals. This should result in a decent number of shots on target from both sides.

Total Shots (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

65%

Both teams will be looking to attack and create chances, particularly Leeds against a weak away defense, and Burnley needing to score. This should lead to a high volume of shots.

Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

70%

A relegation battle between two teams desperate for points often leads to a physical encounter with numerous fouls as players contest every ball.

Possession Winner

Home

60%

As the home team and generally the slightly stronger side, Leeds is expected to dictate the tempo and control more of the possession.

Leeds Clean Sheet

70%

Leeds has only kept 4 clean sheets at home this season (25%), and Burnley has scored in 75% of their away games. Burnley has failed to keep a single clean sheet away from home this season (0%). Therefore, neither team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Burnley Clean Sheet

70%

Leeds vs Burnley — Key Stats

LeedsStatBurnley

15th ✅League Position19th

33 ✅Points20

31 Games Played31

7 ✅Wins4

12 Draws✅ 8

37 ✅Goals Scored33

48 ✅Goals Conceded61

1.2 ✅Goals Per Game1.1

6 ✅Clean Sheets4

DLLDD ✅Recent FormDLLDL

🏟️

Elland Road

Home Ground

⏰

7:00 PM UTC

Friday, May 1

Matchday kickoff

⚽

Premier League

Soccer

Betting Angles — Leeds vs Burnley

⚠️ Match Result: Leeds Win

Leeds' home advantage and Burnley's poor away record (68.75% away losses) suggest a higher probability for a home win than implied by typical odds around 2.00. Our model estimates a 55% chance for Leeds to secure the victory.

✅ Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals

Burnley's away games average 3.5 goals per match, with them conceding 2.38 goals per game on the road. Leeds' home games average 2.63 goals. The combined offensive and defensive stats point to a high-scoring affair, making 'Over 2.5 Goals' a strong value bet.

💰 Sharp Money

Sharp money is likely to target Leeds in the 'Draw No Bet' market or 'Asian Handicap' to mitigate risk, and will also be looking at 'Over 2.5 Goals' due to Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities away from home. Line movement: Assuming initial odds reflect a tight contest, we would expect to see the odds for a Leeds win shorten as kick-off approaches, especially if public money comes in on the home side. Conversely, 'Over 2.5 Goals' odds might also shorten.

AI Same Game Parlay — Leeds vs Burnley

🔥 RECOMMENDED SGP

3-Leg

Leeds Win2.00

Over 2.5 Goals1.85

BTTS: Yes1.72

Combined Odds: 6.36 (+536)

AI Confidence: 26%

$10 → $63.64 | $25 → $159.10 | $50 → $318.20

Correlation: POSITIVE ✅ — all legs support each other

Build custom SGP →

Risk Assessment

High Risk

7/10

⚠️Both teams are in poor form, leading to unpredictable performances.
⚠️High-stakes relegation match can lead to cautious play or unexpected moments of brilliance/error.
⚠️Leeds' tendency to draw (12 draws this season) could negate their home advantage.
⚠️Burnley's desperation for points could lead to an unexpected upset.

Model Confidence

⚡75%

Data quality: Good, comprehensive team statistics and league standings were provided, allowing for a detailed statistical analysis.

Limitations

•Absence of specific head-to-head records between the teams.
•Lack of real-time odds, requiring hypothetical odds for value bet calculations.
•No injury or suspension information for either team.
•No player-specific data (e.g., top scorers, key absences).
•No detailed tactical information or recent match reports.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.

Leeds vs Burnley — FAQ

Leeds has a decent home record this season, with 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses in 16 games at Elland Road. They've scored 22 goals and conceded 20 at home.