Ligue 1Ligue 1Stade Ocรฉane

Sunday, Apr 26, 2026, 3:15 PM UTC

Kickoff in 15d 22h 48m

Le Havre

Le Havre

vs

Metz

Metz

68%
13%
19%
Le HavreDrawMetz

AI Pick: Le Havre Win

Confidence: 65%

1X2: Le Havre Win (โšก65%)

O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals

BTTS: No

Le Havre vs Metz Prediction

A crucial Ligue 1 relegation battle between Le Havre and Metz. Le Havre holds a significant home advantage, while Metz has one of the worst away records in the league. Expect a tight, low-scoring affair with Le Havre as the slight favorite.

AI-powered prediction

MATCH RESULT

Le Havre Win

Predicted: 1-0

โšก65%

Le Havre (14th) hosts Metz (18th) in a crucial relegation battle. Le Havre boasts a significantly better home record (5 wins, 7 draws, 3 losses) and a relatively solid home defense (0.9 goals conceded per game) compared to Metz's abysmal away form (1 win, 2 draws, 11 losses) and very leaky away defense (2.6 goals conceded per game). While both teams are in poor overall form, Le Havre's home advantage and Metz's struggles on the road make the home side the slight favorite to secure a narrow victory.

TOTAL GOALS

Under 2.5 Goals

Total: 1.9

60%

Le Havre's home matches are typically low-scoring, averaging 1.93 total goals. Metz's away attack is weak (0.9 goals per game), and Le Havre's home defense is relatively solid (0.9 conceded per game). This points to a tight, low-scoring affair where one team might fail to score, making 'Under 2.5 Goals' and 'BTTS No' the most probable outcomes.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

No

55%

Le Havre's home matches are typically low-scoring, averaging 1.93 total goals. Metz's away attack is weak (0.9 goals per game), and Le Havre's home defense is relatively solid (0.9 conceded per game). This points to a tight, low-scoring affair where one team might fail to score, making 'Under 2.5 Goals' and 'BTTS No' the most probable outcomes.

๐Ÿ“Š More Markets

โšฝ Goal Markets

Total Goals (O/U 1.5)

Over 1.5

70%

While 'Under 2.5 Goals' is predicted, a 1-0, 1-1, or 2-0 scoreline still falls 'Over 1.5 Goals', making this a safer bet for a match where at least one goal is highly expected.

Total Goals (O/U 3.5)

Under 3.5

85%

Both teams' overall low scoring nature and Le Havre's home defensive record make a high-scoring game with 4 or more goals very improbable.

1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)

Over 0.5

70%

A single goal in the first half is a common occurrence in Ligue 1. Both teams have shown they can score or concede before halftime, making at least one goal in the opening 45 minutes quite plausible.

First Team to Score

Home

65%

Le Havre has a better home attack (1.1 goals/game) and Metz's away defense is very poor (2.6 goals conceded/game), making Le Havre more likely to open the scoring.

Goal in Both Halves

No

60%

Given the expectation of a low-scoring match (e.g., 1-0, 1-1, 2-0), it's more likely that goals will be concentrated in one half or there will be only one goal in total.

Most Likely Score

1-0

40%

A narrow home win reflects Le Havre's defensive solidity at home and Metz's struggles to score away, aligning with the overall low-scoring prediction.

BTTS 1st Half

No

80%

Both teams struggle to score consistently, and a goal from both in the first 45 minutes is highly improbable given their attacking output.

xG Based (O/U 2.5)

Under 2.5 xG

70%

Based on the low average goals scored by both teams and Le Havre's defensive strength at home, the expected goals for the match are likely to be below 2.5.

๐Ÿ† Result Markets

Double Chance

1X

85%

Le Havre's solid home record (5W 7D 3L) coupled with Metz's dreadful away form (1W 2D 11L) makes a home win or draw a very probable outcome.

Draw No Bet

Home

75%

Le Havre is the stronger side when playing at home, making them the preferred pick. The Draw No Bet market provides insurance in case the match ends in a stalemate.

HT/FT

Draw/Home

50%

Expect a cautious and tight first half, potentially ending level, with Le Havre pushing for a winner in the second half, leveraging their home advantage and Metz's tendency to concede late.

๐Ÿ“Š Team Stats

Total Corners (O/U 9.5)

Over 9.5

60%

In a high-stakes relegation battle, both teams will likely push for opportunities, leading to more defensive clearances and attacking attempts that result in corners.

Total Cards (O/U 3.5)

Over 3.5

70%

Both Le Havre and Metz accumulate a fair number of cards throughout the season. The intensity and pressure of a relegation six-pointer will likely lead to a physical game with several fouls and bookings.

Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)

Over 8.5

55%

Despite a predicted low score, both teams will be desperate for goals, leading to a decent volume of shots, many of which should test the goalkeepers.

Total Shots (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

55%

The urgency of the match for both teams, despite their attacking struggles, should lead to a decent volume of attempts, even if many are off target.

Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

60%

As a crucial relegation six-pointer, the match is expected to be highly intense and physical, leading to a higher number of fouls.

Possession Winner

Home

60%

Playing at home, Le Havre will likely try to control the tempo and possession against a struggling away side, aiming to dictate the play.

Le Havre Clean Sheet

Yes

65%

Metz's poor away attack (0.9 goals per game) combined with Le Havre's decent home defense (0.9 goals conceded per game) makes a home clean sheet a strong possibility. Conversely, Metz's very leaky away defense makes an away clean sheet highly unlikely.

Metz Clean Sheet

No

65%

Metz's poor away attack (0.9 goals per game) combined with Le Havre's decent home defense (0.9 goals conceded per game) makes a home clean sheet a strong possibility. Conversely, Metz's very leaky away defense makes an away clean sheet highly unlikely.

Le Havre vs Metz โ€” Key Stats

Le HavreStatMetz
14th โœ…League Position18th
28 โœ…Points15
28 Games Played28
6 โœ…Wins3
10 Drawsโœ… 6
23 Goals Scoredโœ… 25
36 โœ…Goals Conceded60
0.8 Goals Per Gameโœ… 0.9
7 โœ…Clean Sheets6
LLDLD โœ…Recent FormLLLDD
๐ŸŸ๏ธ

Stade Ocรฉane

Home Ground

โฐ

3:15 PM UTC

Sunday, Apr 26

Matchday kickoff

โšฝ

Ligue 1

Soccer

Betting Angles โ€” Le Havre vs Metz

โš ๏ธ Match Result: Le Havre to Win

Metz has one of the worst away records in Ligue 1, losing 11 of their 14 away games. Le Havre, despite their struggles, has a respectable home record with 5 wins and 7 draws. If odds for a Le Havre win are around 2.20 or higher, it represents good value given their home advantage and Metz's fragility on the road.

โœ… Total Goals: Under 2.5 Goals

Le Havre's home games average only 1.93 total goals, indicating a strong tendency for low-scoring matches. Both teams also have low goal-scoring averages (Le Havre 1.1 home, Metz 0.9 away). While Metz's away games average 3.5 goals, this is largely due to their high number of goals conceded, not scored. Expect a tight, defensive encounter with few goals.

๐Ÿ’ฐ Sharp Money

Sharp money is likely to target 'Under 2.5 Goals' given the statistical tendencies of both teams for low-scoring matches, and 'Le Havre or Draw' (1X) due to Metz's poor away performance. Line movement: Without live odds, it's speculative, but if Le Havre's odds were to drift significantly, it might indicate smart money coming in on the draw or a slight upset. However, based on statistics, Le Havre should remain the favorite.

AI Same Game Parlay โ€” Le Havre vs Metz

๐Ÿ”ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP

3-Leg
Le Havre Win2.00
Under 2.5 Goals1.85
BTTS: No1.72

Combined Odds: 6.36 (+536)

AI Confidence: 23%

$10 โ†’ $63.64 | $25 โ†’ $159.10 | $50 โ†’ $318.20

Correlation: POSITIVE โœ… โ€” all legs support each other

Risk Assessment

Medium Risk
6/10
  • โš ๏ธBoth teams are in poor form, making the outcome less predictable despite statistical advantages.
  • โš ๏ธThe high stakes of a relegation battle can lead to unexpected results or a highly defensive, cagey game.
  • โš ๏ธMetz's away defense is very poor, but Le Havre's attack is not prolific, potentially leading to a stalemate.

Model Confidence

โšก75%

Data quality: Good. Detailed team statistics for league performance, goals, and form were available and utilized.

Limitations

  • โ€ขAbsence of head-to-head statistics between the two teams.
  • โ€ขNo specific injury or suspension reports for either squad.
  • โ€ขLack of real-time odds prevents precise value bet calculations, requiring hypothetical odds.
  • โ€ขSeason averages may not fully capture very recent form shifts or tactical changes.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.

Le Havre vs Metz โ€” FAQ

Our model predicts a home win for Le Havre, with a score prediction of 1-0. Le Havre's home advantage and Metz's poor away form are key factors.