Ligue 1Stade OcรฉaneSunday, Apr 26, 2026, 3:15 PM UTC
Kickoff in 15d 22h 48m

Le Havre
vs

Metz
AI Pick: Le Havre Win
Confidence: 65%
1X2: Le Havre Win (โก65%)
O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
BTTS: No
Le Havre vs Metz Prediction
A crucial Ligue 1 relegation battle between Le Havre and Metz. Le Havre holds a significant home advantage, while Metz has one of the worst away records in the league. Expect a tight, low-scoring affair with Le Havre as the slight favorite.
MATCH RESULT
Le Havre Win
Predicted: 1-0
โก65%
Le Havre (14th) hosts Metz (18th) in a crucial relegation battle. Le Havre boasts a significantly better home record (5 wins, 7 draws, 3 losses) and a relatively solid home defense (0.9 goals conceded per game) compared to Metz's abysmal away form (1 win, 2 draws, 11 losses) and very leaky away defense (2.6 goals conceded per game). While both teams are in poor overall form, Le Havre's home advantage and Metz's struggles on the road make the home side the slight favorite to secure a narrow victory.
TOTAL GOALS
Under 2.5 Goals
Total: 1.9
60%
Le Havre's home matches are typically low-scoring, averaging 1.93 total goals. Metz's away attack is weak (0.9 goals per game), and Le Havre's home defense is relatively solid (0.9 conceded per game). This points to a tight, low-scoring affair where one team might fail to score, making 'Under 2.5 Goals' and 'BTTS No' the most probable outcomes.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
No
55%
Le Havre's home matches are typically low-scoring, averaging 1.93 total goals. Metz's away attack is weak (0.9 goals per game), and Le Havre's home defense is relatively solid (0.9 conceded per game). This points to a tight, low-scoring affair where one team might fail to score, making 'Under 2.5 Goals' and 'BTTS No' the most probable outcomes.
๐ More Markets
โฝ Goal Markets
Total Goals (O/U 1.5)
Over 1.5
While 'Under 2.5 Goals' is predicted, a 1-0, 1-1, or 2-0 scoreline still falls 'Over 1.5 Goals', making this a safer bet for a match where at least one goal is highly expected.
Total Goals (O/U 3.5)
Under 3.5
Both teams' overall low scoring nature and Le Havre's home defensive record make a high-scoring game with 4 or more goals very improbable.
1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)
Over 0.5
A single goal in the first half is a common occurrence in Ligue 1. Both teams have shown they can score or concede before halftime, making at least one goal in the opening 45 minutes quite plausible.
First Team to Score
Home
Le Havre has a better home attack (1.1 goals/game) and Metz's away defense is very poor (2.6 goals conceded/game), making Le Havre more likely to open the scoring.
Goal in Both Halves
No
Given the expectation of a low-scoring match (e.g., 1-0, 1-1, 2-0), it's more likely that goals will be concentrated in one half or there will be only one goal in total.
Most Likely Score
1-0
A narrow home win reflects Le Havre's defensive solidity at home and Metz's struggles to score away, aligning with the overall low-scoring prediction.
BTTS 1st Half
No
Both teams struggle to score consistently, and a goal from both in the first 45 minutes is highly improbable given their attacking output.
xG Based (O/U 2.5)
Under 2.5 xG
Based on the low average goals scored by both teams and Le Havre's defensive strength at home, the expected goals for the match are likely to be below 2.5.
๐ Result Markets
Double Chance
1X
Le Havre's solid home record (5W 7D 3L) coupled with Metz's dreadful away form (1W 2D 11L) makes a home win or draw a very probable outcome.
Draw No Bet
Home
Le Havre is the stronger side when playing at home, making them the preferred pick. The Draw No Bet market provides insurance in case the match ends in a stalemate.
HT/FT
Draw/Home
Expect a cautious and tight first half, potentially ending level, with Le Havre pushing for a winner in the second half, leveraging their home advantage and Metz's tendency to concede late.
๐ Team Stats
Total Corners (O/U 9.5)
Over 9.5
In a high-stakes relegation battle, both teams will likely push for opportunities, leading to more defensive clearances and attacking attempts that result in corners.
Total Cards (O/U 3.5)
Over 3.5
Both Le Havre and Metz accumulate a fair number of cards throughout the season. The intensity and pressure of a relegation six-pointer will likely lead to a physical game with several fouls and bookings.
Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)
Over 8.5
Despite a predicted low score, both teams will be desperate for goals, leading to a decent volume of shots, many of which should test the goalkeepers.
Total Shots (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
The urgency of the match for both teams, despite their attacking struggles, should lead to a decent volume of attempts, even if many are off target.
Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
As a crucial relegation six-pointer, the match is expected to be highly intense and physical, leading to a higher number of fouls.
Possession Winner
Home
Playing at home, Le Havre will likely try to control the tempo and possession against a struggling away side, aiming to dictate the play.
Le Havre Clean Sheet
Yes
Metz's poor away attack (0.9 goals per game) combined with Le Havre's decent home defense (0.9 goals conceded per game) makes a home clean sheet a strong possibility. Conversely, Metz's very leaky away defense makes an away clean sheet highly unlikely.
Metz Clean Sheet
No
Metz's poor away attack (0.9 goals per game) combined with Le Havre's decent home defense (0.9 goals conceded per game) makes a home clean sheet a strong possibility. Conversely, Metz's very leaky away defense makes an away clean sheet highly unlikely.
Le Havre vs Metz โ Key Stats
Stade Ocรฉane
Home Ground
3:15 PM UTC
Sunday, Apr 26
Matchday kickoff
Ligue 1
Soccer
Betting Angles โ Le Havre vs Metz
โ ๏ธ Match Result: Le Havre to Win
Metz has one of the worst away records in Ligue 1, losing 11 of their 14 away games. Le Havre, despite their struggles, has a respectable home record with 5 wins and 7 draws. If odds for a Le Havre win are around 2.20 or higher, it represents good value given their home advantage and Metz's fragility on the road.
โ Total Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
Le Havre's home games average only 1.93 total goals, indicating a strong tendency for low-scoring matches. Both teams also have low goal-scoring averages (Le Havre 1.1 home, Metz 0.9 away). While Metz's away games average 3.5 goals, this is largely due to their high number of goals conceded, not scored. Expect a tight, defensive encounter with few goals.
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Sharp money is likely to target 'Under 2.5 Goals' given the statistical tendencies of both teams for low-scoring matches, and 'Le Havre or Draw' (1X) due to Metz's poor away performance. Line movement: Without live odds, it's speculative, but if Le Havre's odds were to drift significantly, it might indicate smart money coming in on the draw or a slight upset. However, based on statistics, Le Havre should remain the favorite.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Le Havre vs Metz
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 6.36 (+536)
AI Confidence: 23%
$10 โ $63.64 | $25 โ $159.10 | $50 โ $318.20
Correlation: POSITIVE โ โ all legs support each other
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- โ ๏ธBoth teams are in poor form, making the outcome less predictable despite statistical advantages.
- โ ๏ธThe high stakes of a relegation battle can lead to unexpected results or a highly defensive, cagey game.
- โ ๏ธMetz's away defense is very poor, but Le Havre's attack is not prolific, potentially leading to a stalemate.
Model Confidence
โก75%
Data quality: Good. Detailed team statistics for league performance, goals, and form were available and utilized.
Limitations
- โขAbsence of head-to-head statistics between the two teams.
- โขNo specific injury or suspension reports for either squad.
- โขLack of real-time odds prevents precise value bet calculations, requiring hypothetical odds.
- โขSeason averages may not fully capture very recent form shifts or tactical changes.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Le Havre vs Metz โ FAQ
Our model predicts a home win for Le Havre, with a score prediction of 1-0. Le Havre's home advantage and Metz's poor away form are key factors.