Liga PortugalLiga PortugalEstรกdio Dom Afonso Henriques

Sunday, May 10, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC

Kickoff in 21d 13h 2m

Guimaraes

Guimaraes

vs

Casa Pia

Casa Pia

65%
14%
21%
GuimaraesDrawCasa Pia

AI Pick: Guimaraes Win

Confidence: 60%

1X2: Guimaraes Win (60%)

O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals

BTTS: No

Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Prediction

Guimaraes is favored to win this Liga Portugal match against Casa Pia, primarily due to their home advantage, superior league position, and Casa Pia's dismal away form. However, the high draw probability indicated by API-Sports suggests a potentially tight encounter.

AI-powered prediction

MATCH RESULT

Guimaraes Win

Predicted: 1-0

60%

Guimaraes, currently 7th in the league, holds a significant home advantage against 16th-placed Casa Pia, who are in the relegation zone. Guimaraes has a decent home record with 7 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded at home. Casa Pia's away form is very poor, with only 3 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, scoring a mere 0.7 goals per game and conceding 1.9. While API-Sports indicates a high probability for a draw (45%) alongside a home win (45%), the overall comparison still leans towards Guimaraes (61.8% home vs 38.2% away). Given Casa Pia's struggles to score away and Guimaraes' home strength, a narrow home victory is the most likely outcome, though the draw potential keeps confidence moderate.

TOTAL GOALS

Under 2.5 Goals

Total: 2.3

60%

Guimaraes averages 1.6 goals at home and Casa Pia averages 0.7 goals away, leading to an expected total of 2.3 goals. Both teams' individual 'under_over' stats show a strong tendency for fewer than 2.5 goals in their matches. Casa Pia's poor away attack (0.7 goals/game) makes a 'No' for Both Teams To Score more likely, especially if Guimaraes secures a clean sheet. The overall low scoring averages support the Under 2.5 Goals prediction.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

No

55%

Guimaraes averages 1.6 goals at home and Casa Pia averages 0.7 goals away, leading to an expected total of 2.3 goals. Both teams' individual 'under_over' stats show a strong tendency for fewer than 2.5 goals in their matches. Casa Pia's poor away attack (0.7 goals/game) makes a 'No' for Both Teams To Score more likely, especially if Guimaraes secures a clean sheet. The overall low scoring averages support the Under 2.5 Goals prediction.

๐Ÿ“Š More Markets

โšฝ Goal Markets

Total Goals (O/U 1.5)

Over 1.5

70%

With an expected total of 2.3 goals, scoring at least two goals in the match is a reasonably high probability. Guimaraes averages 1.6 goals at home alone.

Total Goals (O/U 3.5)

Under 3.5

80%

The combined average expected goals for this match is 2.3, which is well below 3.5. Both teams' individual 'under_over' stats also show a strong tendency for fewer than 3.5 goals.

1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)

Over 0.5

75%

Both teams have shown a tendency to score in the first half. Guimaraes has scored 17 goals in the first half (0-45 min) this season, and Casa Pia has scored 14. It's highly probable that at least one goal will be scored before halftime.

First Team to Score

Home

70%

Guimaraes has a stronger attack at home (1.6 goals/game) compared to Casa Pia's struggling away attack (0.7 goals/game). It is more likely that Guimaraes will open the scoring.

Goal in Both Halves

No

55%

Given the prediction of Under 2.5 goals and a potential 1-0 scoreline, it's less likely that goals will be scored in both halves. If there's only one goal, it can only be in one half.

Most Likely Score

1-0

45%

Reflecting the expectation of a narrow home win and the overall tendency for fewer goals in both teams' matches, especially Casa Pia's low away scoring rate.

BTTS 1st Half

No

75%

With a low overall expected goal count and Casa Pia's difficulty scoring away, it's highly improbable that both teams will manage to score in the first half.

xG Based (O/U 2.5)

Under 2.5 xG

70%

Aligning with the 'Under 2.5 Goals' prediction, the expected goals (xG) for this match are likely to be below 2.5, reflecting the low scoring averages of both teams, especially Casa Pia's away form.

๐Ÿ† Result Markets

Double Chance

1X

80%

Guimaraes is the stronger team playing at home, and Casa Pia has a poor away record. The API-Sports prediction also suggests 'Win or draw' for Guimaraes, making a home win or draw (1X) a very safe bet.

Draw No Bet

Home

68%

Guimaraes is the favored team due to home advantage, better league position, and Casa Pia's weak away form. This market provides a safety net in case of a draw, returning the stake.

HT/FT

Home/Home

55%

Given Guimaraes' home advantage and Casa Pia's struggles, Guimaraes is expected to take an early lead and maintain it. However, Casa Pia's tendency for draws (3 away draws) means a Draw/Home is also possible, hence moderate confidence.

๐Ÿ“Š Team Stats

Total Corners (O/U 9.5)

Over 9.5

65%

In a Liga Portugal match where one team is fighting relegation and the other is pushing for a higher mid-table finish, both teams will likely attack, leading to a reasonable number of corners. This is a standard pick when specific corner data is unavailable.

Total Cards (O/U 3.5)

Over 3.5

70%

Both Guimaraes (65 yellow, 3 red) and Casa Pia (81 yellow, 2 red) have accumulated a significant number of cards this season. Casa Pia is in the relegation zone, which often leads to more aggressive play and fouls. A competitive match is expected, likely resulting in at least 4 cards.

Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)

Over 8.5

60%

While specific shot data is not provided, a combined average of around 9-10 shots on target is typical for a Liga Portugal match where one team is stronger at home and the other is fighting for points.

Total Shots (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

60%

Both teams will be looking to create chances. Guimaraes will push for a win at home, and Casa Pia will try to get points to avoid relegation. This should lead to a combined total of over 22.5 shots.

Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

65%

Liga Portugal matches are often physical, and with Casa Pia fighting relegation, the game is likely to be competitive and involve a fair number of fouls. This is a standard pick when specific foul data is unavailable.

Possession Winner

Home

65%

As the home favorite and generally stronger team, Guimaraes is expected to control more of the ball possession against a visiting team likely to sit deeper and play on the counter.

Guimaraes Clean Sheet

Yes

65%

Casa Pia has a very low away scoring average (0.7 goals per game) and failed to score in 8 of their 15 away matches. Guimaraes, while not having an impenetrable defense, is strong enough at home to potentially keep a clean sheet against a struggling attack. Conversely, Guimaraes averages 1.6 goals at home, making an away clean sheet for Casa Pia highly unlikely.

Casa Pia Clean Sheet

No

65%

Casa Pia has a very low away scoring average (0.7 goals per game) and failed to score in 8 of their 15 away matches. Guimaraes, while not having an impenetrable defense, is strong enough at home to potentially keep a clean sheet against a struggling attack. Conversely, Guimaraes averages 1.6 goals at home, making an away clean sheet for Casa Pia highly unlikely.

Guimaraes vs Casa Pia โ€” Key Stats

GuimaraesStatCasa Pia
7th โœ…League Position16th
39 โœ…Points26
29 Games Played29
10 โœ…Wins5
6 โœ…Draws11
35 โœ…Goals Scored28
43 โœ…Goals Conceded52
1.2 โœ…Goals Per Game1.0
8 โœ…Clean Sheets6
LLLWD โœ…Recent FormDLDLD
๐ŸŸ๏ธ

Estรกdio Dom Afonso Henriques

Home Ground

โฐ

4:00 PM UTC

Sunday, May 10

Matchday kickoff

โšฝ

Liga Portugal

Soccer

Betting Angles โ€” Guimaraes vs Casa Pia

๐Ÿ’ฐ Sharp Money

Without live odds, it's impossible to track sharp money movements. However, the API-Sports' even split between home win and draw percentages suggests some uncertainty or value on the draw for professional bettors. Line movement: N/A - No odds provided to track line movement.

AI Same Game Parlay โ€” Guimaraes vs Casa Pia

๐Ÿ”ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP

3-Leg
Guimaraes Win2.00
Under 2.5 Goals1.85
BTTS: No1.72

Combined Odds: 6.36 (+536)

AI Confidence: 21%

$10 โ†’ $63.64 | $25 โ†’ $159.10 | $50 โ†’ $318.20

Correlation: POSITIVE โœ… โ€” all legs support each other

Risk Assessment

Medium Risk
6/10
  • โš ๏ธAPI-Sports predicts a high probability of a draw (45%), which could lead to an upset if Guimaraes fails to convert their chances.
  • โš ๏ธGuimaraes' recent form is mixed, indicating some inconsistency.
  • โš ๏ธCasa Pia is fighting relegation, which can sometimes lead to unexpected performances from desperate teams.

Model Confidence

โšก65%

Data quality: High - Comprehensive team statistics, league standings, and API-Sports predictions were available.

Limitations

  • โ€ขNo specific H2H match results were provided, only a percentage comparison.
  • โ€ขNo live betting odds were available to validate market sentiment or identify value bets.
  • โ€ขNo detailed injury reports or player form data were provided.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.

Guimaraes vs Casa Pia โ€” FAQ

A home win for Guimaraes is the most likely outcome, given their stronger league position and home advantage against a struggling Casa Pia side.