BrasileirãoBrasileirão

Sunday, Apr 26, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC

Kickoff in 15d 3h 34m

Gremio

Gremio

vs

Coritiba

Coritiba

68%
13%
19%
GremioDrawCoritiba

AI Pick: Gremio Win

Confidence: 65%

1X2: Gremio Win (65%)

O/U 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals

BTTS: Yes

Gremio vs Coritiba Prediction

This Brasileirão fixture pits Gremio's formidable home record against Coritiba's impressive away form. Gremio is undefeated at home, scoring freely, while Coritiba has proven to be a tough opponent on the road. The match is expected to be competitive with goals from both sides.

AI-powered prediction

MATCH RESULT

Gremio Win

Predicted: 2-1

65%

Gremio boasts an undefeated home record this season (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring an impressive 2.0 goals per home game. While Coritiba has shown strong away form (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) and a decent away scoring average of 1.6 goals, Gremio's home advantage and superior attacking output at home give them a slight edge. The API-Sports prediction also highlights a high probability for Gremio or a draw, but Gremio's offensive strength at home should be enough for a narrow victory.

TOTAL GOALS

Over 2.5 Goals

Total: 2.9

60%

Gremio's home games average 3.0 total goals, while Coritiba's away games average 2.8 total goals. This points towards an 'Over 2.5 Goals' outcome. Both teams have a good record of scoring in their respective home/away fixtures (Gremio scored in 4/5 home, Coritiba in 4/5 away) and conceding (Gremio conceded in 3/5 home, Coritiba in 4/5 away), making 'Both Teams To Score: Yes' highly probable. The calculated total expected goals for the match is 2.9.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

Yes

55%

Gremio's home games average 3.0 total goals, while Coritiba's away games average 2.8 total goals. This points towards an 'Over 2.5 Goals' outcome. Both teams have a good record of scoring in their respective home/away fixtures (Gremio scored in 4/5 home, Coritiba in 4/5 away) and conceding (Gremio conceded in 3/5 home, Coritiba in 4/5 away), making 'Both Teams To Score: Yes' highly probable. The calculated total expected goals for the match is 2.9.

📊 More Markets

Goal Markets

Total Goals (O/U 1.5)

Over 1.5

85%

With an expected total of 2.9 goals, 'Over 1.5 Goals' is a highly probable outcome for this match.

Total Goals (O/U 3.5)

Under 3.5

70%

While 'Over 2.5 Goals' is predicted, the expected total of 2.9 goals suggests that exceeding 3.5 goals is less likely, making 'Under 3.5 Goals' a reasonable pick.

1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)

Over 0.5

75%

While individual team first-half scoring percentages are not exceptionally high, the overall expected goal count of 2.9 suggests a good chance of at least one goal being scored before halftime.

First Team to Score

Home

65%

Gremio has a higher home scoring average (2.0 goals per game) compared to Coritiba's away scoring average (1.6 goals per game), giving them a better chance to open the scoring.

Goal in Both Halves

Yes

70%

With an expected 2.9 goals and both teams likely to score, it's reasonable to expect goals to be distributed across both halves of the match.

Most Likely Score

2-1

20%

Based on Gremio's home scoring average (2.0) and Coritiba's away scoring (1.6) and conceding (1.2), a 2-1 victory for Gremio is a plausible narrow win.

BTTS 1st Half

No

60%

While BTTS is predicted for the full match, the individual team statistics for first-half goals suggest it's less common for both teams to score in the opening 45 minutes.

xG Based (O/U 2.5)

Over 2.5 xG

60%

Based on the expected total goals of 2.9, it's reasonable to infer that the quality of chances (xG) generated by both teams will also be 'Over 2.5'.

🏆 Result Markets

Double Chance

1X

85%

Gremio is undefeated at home this season (3 wins, 2 draws). This strong home form makes 'Gremio or Draw' a very safe pick, aligning with the API-Sports advice.

Draw No Bet

Home

75%

Considering Gremio's strong home advantage and undefeated record, if the match doesn't end in a draw, Gremio is the most likely winner.

HT/FT

Home/Home

55%

Gremio's strong home form suggests they are capable of taking an early lead and maintaining it. While a 'Draw/Home' is also possible, Gremio's offensive output at home leans towards them leading at both intervals.

📊 Team Stats

Total Corners (O/U 9.5)

Over 9.5

65%

Brasileirão matches are often dynamic, leading to a decent number of corners. With both teams expected to attack, 'Over 9.5' corners is a reasonable expectation for a competitive fixture.

Total Cards (O/U 3.5)

Over 3.5

70%

Gremio averages 2.1 yellow cards per game, and Coritiba averages 1.9. The combined average is 4.0 cards per game. Brasileirão matches can be physical and intense, making 'Over 3.5' cards a likely outcome.

Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)

Over 8.5

60%

Given the expected total goals of 2.9 and both teams' attacking tendencies, a combined total of 'Over 8.5' shots on target is a fair estimate for a match where both sides will be looking to score.

Total Shots (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

60%

In a match where both teams are expected to attack and score, a combined total of 'Over 22.5' shots (on and off target) is a reasonable general estimate.

Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

70%

Brasileirão matches are typically competitive and physical, often leading to a high number of fouls. 'Over 22.5' is a standard expectation for such a league.

Possession Winner

Home

65%

Home teams generally tend to dominate possession, especially when they are the stronger side or looking to control the game. Gremio will likely aim to dictate play.

Gremio Clean Sheet

No

70%

With 'Both Teams To Score: Yes' being a strong prediction, it is unlikely either team will keep a clean sheet. Gremio conceded in 3 of 5 home games, and Coritiba conceded in 4 of 5 away games.

Coritiba Clean Sheet

No

70%

With 'Both Teams To Score: Yes' being a strong prediction, it is unlikely either team will keep a clean sheet. Gremio conceded in 3 of 5 home games, and Coritiba conceded in 4 of 5 away games.

Gremio vs Coritiba Key Stats

GremioStatCoritiba
11th League Position7th
12 Points15
10 Games Played10
3 Wins4
3 Draws3
14 Goals Scored11
14 Goals Conceded10
1.4 Goals Per Game1.1
2 Clean Sheets3
DWLLD Recent FormWWLDD

Betting Angles Gremio vs Coritiba

⚠️ Match Result: Gremio

Gremio's strong home form (undefeated, 3W 2D) against Coritiba's good away record makes this a tight match. However, Gremio's home scoring average of 2.0 goals suggests they are capable of securing a win. Our model gives them a slightly higher probability than implied by typical odds for this scenario.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals

Gremio's home matches average 3.0 total goals (2.0 GF, 1.0 GA), and Coritiba's away matches average 2.8 total goals (1.6 GF, 1.2 GA). Both teams show a tendency for higher-scoring games, especially when Gremio is at home. The combined expected goals are around 2.9, making 'Over 2.5 Goals' a strong value pick.

💰 Sharp Money

N/A - No odds or betting volume data provided to assess sharp money movement. Line movement: N/A - No opening or current odds provided to track line movement.

AI Same Game Parlay Gremio vs Coritiba

🔥 RECOMMENDED SGP

3-Leg
Gremio Win2.00
Over 2.5 Goals1.85
BTTS: Yes1.72

Combined Odds: 6.36 (+536)

AI Confidence: 23%

$10 → $63.64 | $25 → $159.10 | $50 → $318.20

Correlation: POSITIVE ✅ — all legs support each other

Risk Assessment

Medium Risk
6/10
  • ⚠️Coritiba's strong away form could challenge Gremio's home dominance, potentially leading to a draw or even an upset.
  • ⚠️Gremio's overall inconsistent form (LWLWDDWLLD) outside of home games could indicate underlying vulnerabilities.
  • ⚠️Lack of head-to-head data makes historical match-up analysis impossible.

Model Confidence

70%

Data quality: The provided team statistics and league standings are comprehensive for the current season. However, the absence of head-to-head records, injury reports, and real-time odds limits the depth of the analysis.

Limitations

  • Lack of head-to-head statistics between Gremio and Coritiba.
  • Absence of specific injury or suspension reports for key players.
  • No real-time odds provided, requiring assumptions for value bet calculations.
  • No advanced metrics like xG, shots, or corner data per match for more precise market predictions.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.

Gremio vs Coritiba FAQ

Gremio has an excellent home record this season, remaining undefeated with 3 wins and 2 draws in 5 matches played at home.