BrasileirãoSunday, Apr 26, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Kickoff in 15d 3h 34m

Gremio
vs

Coritiba
AI Pick: Gremio Win
Confidence: 65%
1X2: Gremio Win (⚡65%)
O/U 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
BTTS: Yes
Gremio vs Coritiba Prediction
This Brasileirão fixture pits Gremio's formidable home record against Coritiba's impressive away form. Gremio is undefeated at home, scoring freely, while Coritiba has proven to be a tough opponent on the road. The match is expected to be competitive with goals from both sides.
MATCH RESULT
Gremio Win
Predicted: 2-1
⚡65%
Gremio boasts an undefeated home record this season (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring an impressive 2.0 goals per home game. While Coritiba has shown strong away form (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) and a decent away scoring average of 1.6 goals, Gremio's home advantage and superior attacking output at home give them a slight edge. The API-Sports prediction also highlights a high probability for Gremio or a draw, but Gremio's offensive strength at home should be enough for a narrow victory.
TOTAL GOALS
Over 2.5 Goals
Total: 2.9
60%
Gremio's home games average 3.0 total goals, while Coritiba's away games average 2.8 total goals. This points towards an 'Over 2.5 Goals' outcome. Both teams have a good record of scoring in their respective home/away fixtures (Gremio scored in 4/5 home, Coritiba in 4/5 away) and conceding (Gremio conceded in 3/5 home, Coritiba in 4/5 away), making 'Both Teams To Score: Yes' highly probable. The calculated total expected goals for the match is 2.9.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
Yes
55%
Gremio's home games average 3.0 total goals, while Coritiba's away games average 2.8 total goals. This points towards an 'Over 2.5 Goals' outcome. Both teams have a good record of scoring in their respective home/away fixtures (Gremio scored in 4/5 home, Coritiba in 4/5 away) and conceding (Gremio conceded in 3/5 home, Coritiba in 4/5 away), making 'Both Teams To Score: Yes' highly probable. The calculated total expected goals for the match is 2.9.
📊 More Markets
⚽ Goal Markets
Total Goals (O/U 1.5)
Over 1.5
With an expected total of 2.9 goals, 'Over 1.5 Goals' is a highly probable outcome for this match.
Total Goals (O/U 3.5)
Under 3.5
While 'Over 2.5 Goals' is predicted, the expected total of 2.9 goals suggests that exceeding 3.5 goals is less likely, making 'Under 3.5 Goals' a reasonable pick.
1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)
Over 0.5
While individual team first-half scoring percentages are not exceptionally high, the overall expected goal count of 2.9 suggests a good chance of at least one goal being scored before halftime.
First Team to Score
Home
Gremio has a higher home scoring average (2.0 goals per game) compared to Coritiba's away scoring average (1.6 goals per game), giving them a better chance to open the scoring.
Goal in Both Halves
Yes
With an expected 2.9 goals and both teams likely to score, it's reasonable to expect goals to be distributed across both halves of the match.
Most Likely Score
2-1
Based on Gremio's home scoring average (2.0) and Coritiba's away scoring (1.6) and conceding (1.2), a 2-1 victory for Gremio is a plausible narrow win.
BTTS 1st Half
No
While BTTS is predicted for the full match, the individual team statistics for first-half goals suggest it's less common for both teams to score in the opening 45 minutes.
xG Based (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5 xG
Based on the expected total goals of 2.9, it's reasonable to infer that the quality of chances (xG) generated by both teams will also be 'Over 2.5'.
🏆 Result Markets
Double Chance
1X
Gremio is undefeated at home this season (3 wins, 2 draws). This strong home form makes 'Gremio or Draw' a very safe pick, aligning with the API-Sports advice.
Draw No Bet
Home
Considering Gremio's strong home advantage and undefeated record, if the match doesn't end in a draw, Gremio is the most likely winner.
HT/FT
Home/Home
Gremio's strong home form suggests they are capable of taking an early lead and maintaining it. While a 'Draw/Home' is also possible, Gremio's offensive output at home leans towards them leading at both intervals.
📊 Team Stats
Total Corners (O/U 9.5)
Over 9.5
Brasileirão matches are often dynamic, leading to a decent number of corners. With both teams expected to attack, 'Over 9.5' corners is a reasonable expectation for a competitive fixture.
Total Cards (O/U 3.5)
Over 3.5
Gremio averages 2.1 yellow cards per game, and Coritiba averages 1.9. The combined average is 4.0 cards per game. Brasileirão matches can be physical and intense, making 'Over 3.5' cards a likely outcome.
Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)
Over 8.5
Given the expected total goals of 2.9 and both teams' attacking tendencies, a combined total of 'Over 8.5' shots on target is a fair estimate for a match where both sides will be looking to score.
Total Shots (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
In a match where both teams are expected to attack and score, a combined total of 'Over 22.5' shots (on and off target) is a reasonable general estimate.
Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
Brasileirão matches are typically competitive and physical, often leading to a high number of fouls. 'Over 22.5' is a standard expectation for such a league.
Possession Winner
Home
Home teams generally tend to dominate possession, especially when they are the stronger side or looking to control the game. Gremio will likely aim to dictate play.
Gremio Clean Sheet
No
With 'Both Teams To Score: Yes' being a strong prediction, it is unlikely either team will keep a clean sheet. Gremio conceded in 3 of 5 home games, and Coritiba conceded in 4 of 5 away games.
Coritiba Clean Sheet
No
With 'Both Teams To Score: Yes' being a strong prediction, it is unlikely either team will keep a clean sheet. Gremio conceded in 3 of 5 home games, and Coritiba conceded in 4 of 5 away games.
Gremio vs Coritiba — Key Stats
Betting Angles — Gremio vs Coritiba
⚠️ Match Result: Gremio
Gremio's strong home form (undefeated, 3W 2D) against Coritiba's good away record makes this a tight match. However, Gremio's home scoring average of 2.0 goals suggests they are capable of securing a win. Our model gives them a slightly higher probability than implied by typical odds for this scenario.
✅ Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
Gremio's home matches average 3.0 total goals (2.0 GF, 1.0 GA), and Coritiba's away matches average 2.8 total goals (1.6 GF, 1.2 GA). Both teams show a tendency for higher-scoring games, especially when Gremio is at home. The combined expected goals are around 2.9, making 'Over 2.5 Goals' a strong value pick.
💰 Sharp Money
N/A - No odds or betting volume data provided to assess sharp money movement. Line movement: N/A - No opening or current odds provided to track line movement.
AI Same Game Parlay — Gremio vs Coritiba
🔥 RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 6.36 (+536)
AI Confidence: 23%
$10 → $63.64 | $25 → $159.10 | $50 → $318.20
Correlation: POSITIVE ✅ — all legs support each other
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- ⚠️Coritiba's strong away form could challenge Gremio's home dominance, potentially leading to a draw or even an upset.
- ⚠️Gremio's overall inconsistent form (LWLWDDWLLD) outside of home games could indicate underlying vulnerabilities.
- ⚠️Lack of head-to-head data makes historical match-up analysis impossible.
Model Confidence
⚡70%
Data quality: The provided team statistics and league standings are comprehensive for the current season. However, the absence of head-to-head records, injury reports, and real-time odds limits the depth of the analysis.
Limitations
- •Lack of head-to-head statistics between Gremio and Coritiba.
- •Absence of specific injury or suspension reports for key players.
- •No real-time odds provided, requiring assumptions for value bet calculations.
- •No advanced metrics like xG, shots, or corner data per match for more precise market predictions.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Gremio vs Coritiba — FAQ
Gremio has an excellent home record this season, remaining undefeated with 3 wins and 2 draws in 5 matches played at home.