Serie AStadio Artemio FranchiSunday, Apr 26, 2026, 10:30 AM UTC
Kickoff in 15d 18h 3m
Fiorentina
vs
Sassuolo
AI Pick: Draw
Confidence: 75%
1X2: Draw (⚡75%)
O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
BTTS: Yes
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo Prediction
This Serie A clash between Fiorentina and Sassuolo is expected to be a closely contested affair. Fiorentina, playing at home, has struggled to secure wins this season, while Sassuolo sits comfortably higher in the league table. A low-scoring draw is the most probable outcome, with both teams showing similar attacking and defensive metrics.
MATCH RESULT
Draw
Predicted: 1-1
⚡75%
Fiorentina, despite playing at home, has a poor home record (3 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses). Sassuolo, while not dominant away, has a slightly better overall league position and away form (5 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses). The API-Sports prediction heavily favors either a home win or a draw (45% each), indicating a very tight contest. Given Sassuolo's resilience on the road and Fiorentina's struggles to convert home advantage into wins, a draw is the most probable outcome. Both teams have similar goal-scoring and conceding averages, suggesting a low-scoring affair.
TOTAL GOALS
Under 2.5 Goals
Total: 2.6
60%
Both teams exhibit a tendency for lower-scoring games. Fiorentina averages 1.2 goals for and 1.4 against, while Sassuolo averages 1.2 goals for and 1.3 against. A significant majority of their matches have seen Under 2.5 goals (Fiorentina 29/31, Sassuolo 26/31). However, both teams regularly score and concede, making BTTS 'Yes' a strong prediction. The combined average goals per game for both teams hovers around 2.6.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
Yes
55%
Both teams exhibit a tendency for lower-scoring games. Fiorentina averages 1.2 goals for and 1.4 against, while Sassuolo averages 1.2 goals for and 1.3 against. A significant majority of their matches have seen Under 2.5 goals (Fiorentina 29/31, Sassuolo 26/31). However, both teams regularly score and concede, making BTTS 'Yes' a strong prediction. The combined average goals per game for both teams hovers around 2.6.
📊 More Markets
⚽ Goal Markets
Total Goals (O/U 1.5)
Over 1.5
Despite predicting Under 2.5 goals, the average total goals for both teams combined is around 2.6, making it highly likely that at least two goals will be scored in the match.
Total Goals (O/U 3.5)
Under 3.5
With both teams averaging low goal totals and a strong prediction for Under 2.5 goals, it's very unlikely for the match to exceed 3.5 goals.
1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)
Over 0.5
Both teams have shown a propensity to score and concede in the first half (Fiorentina scored 36% of goals in 1st half, Sassuolo 39%). It's highly probable that at least one goal will be scored before halftime.
First Team to Score
Home
As the home team, Fiorentina will likely start with more attacking impetus. While a draw is predicted, if a goal is scored, Fiorentina has a slight edge to open the scoring.
Goal in Both Halves
Yes
Both teams score and concede across different periods of the game. Even in a low-scoring match, a goal in each half is a reasonable expectation, especially if the first half ends 0-0 or 1-0.
Most Likely Score
1-1
Based on the predicted draw and the low-scoring nature of both teams, a 1-1 scoreline is the most plausible exact score.
BTTS 1st Half
No
While BTTS 'Yes' is predicted for the full match, both teams scoring in the first half is less common, especially in a game expected to be tight and potentially low-scoring.
xG Based (O/U 2.5)
Under 2.5 xG
Given the low average goals scored and conceded by both teams, and the prediction for Under 2.5 actual goals, it's highly probable that the combined Expected Goals (xG) will also be Under 2.5.
🏆 Result Markets
Double Chance
1X
The API-Sports prediction gives Fiorentina a 45% chance to win and a 45% chance for a draw, making 'Fiorentina or Draw' (1X) a highly confident pick with a combined 90% probability.
Draw No Bet
Home
While a draw is predicted, if a winner were to emerge, Fiorentina, with the home advantage, would be slightly favored over Sassuolo, especially considering the API's strong '1X' advice.
HT/FT
Draw/Draw
Given the expectation of a tight, low-scoring game ending in a draw, a Draw at halftime and fulltime is a logical progression.
📊 Team Stats
Total Corners (O/U 9.5)
Over 9.5
Serie A matches typically see a decent number of corners. Both teams will likely push for attacks, leading to deflections and clearances for corners.
Total Cards (O/U 3.5)
Over 3.5
Fiorentina averages 2.2 yellow cards per game, and Sassuolo averages 2.1. A combined average of over 4 cards per game makes 'Over 3.5' a solid prediction, especially in a competitive Serie A fixture.
Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)
Over 8.5
While a low-scoring game is expected, both teams are capable of creating chances. A combined total of 9 or more shots on target is a reasonable expectation for a Serie A match where both sides will seek to break the deadlock.
Total Shots (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
Both teams will be looking for opportunities, and even if many shots are off target, a combined total of over 22.5 shots is typical for a Serie A fixture.
Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
Serie A matches are often physical and tactical, leading to a relatively high number of fouls. A competitive match between two mid-table teams is likely to exceed 22.5 fouls.
Possession Winner
Home
Fiorentina, playing at home, typically aims to control possession and dictate the tempo of the game.
Fiorentina Clean Sheet
No
Both Fiorentina and Sassuolo have poor clean sheet records (6 each in 31 games). Given both teams' ability to score and concede, it's unlikely either will keep a clean sheet.
Sassuolo Clean Sheet
No
Both Fiorentina and Sassuolo have poor clean sheet records (6 each in 31 games). Given both teams' ability to score and concede, it's unlikely either will keep a clean sheet.
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo — Key Stats
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Home Ground
10:30 AM UTC
Sunday, Apr 26
Matchday kickoff
Serie A
Soccer
Betting Angles — Fiorentina vs Sassuolo
✅ Match Result: Draw
The API-Sports model assigns a 45% probability to a draw, which, if offered at odds of 2.80 (implying 35.71%), presents a significant value edge. Fiorentina's home form is weak, and Sassuolo is a capable opponent, making a stalemate a highly plausible outcome that might be underestimated by bookmakers.
💰 Sharp Money
Without live odds, it's difficult to track sharp money. However, given the API-Sports prediction, sharp bettors would likely be looking for value on the draw or a Sassuolo win if odds are favorable, or heavily backing the 1X double chance. Line movement: Assuming initial lines might slightly favor Fiorentina due to home advantage, we would expect line movement towards the draw or Sassuolo as more data and analysis (like this one) highlight the tight nature of the match and Fiorentina's poor home form.
AI Same Game Parlay — Fiorentina vs Sassuolo
🔥 RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 6.36 (+536)
AI Confidence: 26%
$10 → $63.64 | $25 → $159.10 | $50 → $318.20
Correlation: POSITIVE ✅ — all legs support each other
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- ⚠️Fiorentina's inconsistent home form makes their performance unpredictable.
- ⚠️Sassuolo's ability to perform well away from home could lead to an upset.
- ⚠️The absence of specific odds makes value betting speculative.
- ⚠️A single moment of brilliance or error could swing a tight game.
Model Confidence
⚡78%
Data quality: High - Comprehensive team statistics and league standings for the current season are available.
Limitations
- •Absence of specific head-to-head records.
- •Lack of real-time odds for value bet calculations.
- •No injury or suspension information available.
- •No detailed xG or advanced metrics provided.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo — FAQ
For Fiorentina (15th), this match is crucial to improve their poor home record and climb away from the lower mid-table. For Sassuolo (10th), a win would solidify their position in the top half of the Serie A table.