FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction

Total Goals (O/U 1.5)

Over 1.5

With St. Pauli's home games averaging 2.6 goals and Mainz's away games averaging 3.14 goals, it is highly probable that there will be at least two goals in this match.

Total Goals (O/U 3.5)

Under 3.5

While Over 2.5 goals is predicted, neither team has a high frequency of very high-scoring games. St. Pauli has had 0 games over 3.5 goals, and Mainz only 1. This suggests that while goals are expected, a blowout is less likely.

1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)

Over 0.5

Both teams have shown capability to score and concede in the first half. St. Pauli has scored 11 goals and conceded 17 in the first half (0-45 min), while Mainz has scored 17 and conceded 20 in the same period. A goal before halftime is quite probable.

First Team to Score

Away

Mainz has a higher overall scoring rate and a tendency to score earlier in games (16.22% in 0-15 min) compared to St. Pauli (4% in 0-15 min). Their better form also points to them being more likely to break the deadlock.

Goal in Both Halves

Yes

Both teams have shown patterns of scoring and conceding across both halves. St. Pauli scores 28% of goals in 31-45 min and 20% in 46-60 min. Mainz scores 18.92% in 31-45 min and 13.51% in 46-60 min. Given the expectation of multiple goals, it's reasonable to expect action in both halves.

Most Likely Score

1-2

Based on Mainz's better attacking form and St. Pauli's ability to score at home, a narrow 1-2 victory for Mainz seems a plausible outcome, aligning with the 'Over 2.5 Goals' and 'BTTS Yes' predictions.

BTTS 1st Half

No

While a goal in the first half is likely, both teams scoring in the first 45 minutes is a less common occurrence. Both teams' first-half scoring percentages are not high enough to confidently predict BTTS in the first half.

xG Based (O/U 2.5)

Over 2.5 xG

Based on the predicted score of 1-2 and the expectation of an open game with multiple scoring opportunities for both sides, the combined Expected Goals (xG) for the match is likely to exceed 2.5.

Double Chance

X2

Mainz's superior form and league position make them favorites, or at least capable of securing a draw. St. Pauli's struggles suggest they are unlikely to win against an in-form Mainz side.

Draw No Bet

Away

Mainz is the stronger team in better form. If the match ends in a draw, the stake is returned, making this a safer bet than an outright win for Mainz, but still backing the more likely winner.

HT/FT

Draw/Away

St. Pauli's home advantage might lead to a tight first half, potentially ending in a draw. However, Mainz's stronger overall quality and tendency to finish games strongly (21.62% of goals in 76-90 min) suggest they could secure the win in the second half.

Total Corners (O/U 9.5)

Over 9.5

Both teams will be looking to attack, with Mainz pushing for a win and St. Pauli fighting for survival. Bundesliga matches generally see a good number of corners, and the attacking intent from both sides should lead to multiple set-piece opportunities.

Total Cards (O/U 3.5)

Over 3.5

This is a crucial match for St. Pauli in their relegation battle, which often leads to increased intensity and fouls. Mainz also accumulates a fair number of cards (62 yellow, 5 red in 28 games). A competitive Bundesliga fixture with high stakes is likely to see at least 4 cards.

Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)

Over 8.5

With both teams needing points, an open game with attacking plays is expected. Mainz's offensive strength and St. Pauli's need to score at home should result in a decent number of shots on target combined.

Total Shots (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

Both teams will be looking for goals, especially St. Pauli at home and Mainz in good form. This should lead to a combined total of over 22.5 shots, including off-target attempts and blocked shots.

Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

Given the high stakes for St. Pauli and the competitive nature of the Bundesliga, a physical match with a decent number of fouls is expected. This total aligns with typical league averages for a contested game.

Possession Winner

Away

Mainz, being the higher-ranked team and in better form, is more likely to control the tempo and dominate possession against a St. Pauli side that might focus more on counter-attacks and direct play, especially at home.

FC St. Pauli Clean Sheet

No

St. Pauli has only kept 2 clean sheets at home in 13 games (15.3%), and Mainz has only kept 1 clean sheet away in 14 games (7.1%). Given both teams' struggles to keep opponents from scoring, it's highly unlikely either will manage a clean sheet here.

FSV Mainz 05 Clean Sheet

No

St. Pauli has only kept 2 clean sheets at home in 13 games (15.3%), and Mainz has only kept 1 clean sheet away in 14 games (7.1%). Given both teams' struggles to keep opponents from scoring, it's highly unlikely either will manage a clean sheet here.