Liga PortugalLiga PortugalEstádio José Gomes

Sunday, May 10, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC

Kickoff in 21d 13h 2m

Estrela

Estrela

vs

Famalicao

Famalicao

19%
13%
68%
EstrelaDrawFamalicao

AI Pick: Famalicao Win

Confidence: 65%

1X2: Famalicao Win (65%)

O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals

BTTS: No

Estrela vs Famalicao Prediction

Famalicao, currently 5th in the league, is in superior form and boasts a stronger defense compared to 15th-placed Estrela. Despite Estrela's home advantage and a historical H2H edge, Famalicao's current momentum and overall quality make them favorites. A low-scoring match is anticipated.

AI-powered prediction

MATCH RESULT

Famalicao Win

Predicted: 0-1

65%

Famalicao, currently 5th in the Liga Portugal standings, is in significantly better form (DDWWW) compared to Estrela (LLWLD), who sit 15th. Famalicao boasts a stronger defense, conceding an average of 0.9 goals per game overall, and 1.1 away, while Estrela concedes 1.7 goals per game overall and 1.5 at home. Although Estrela has home advantage, their home record (4 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses) is not particularly strong. The API-Sports comparison also favors Famalicao with a 55.5% chance of winning compared to Estrela's 44.5%, and their form and defense metrics are superior. While API-Sports suggests a high probability of a draw (45%), Famalicao is the clear favorite based on current performance and league position. A narrow away win is anticipated given Famalicao's defensive solidity and Estrela's struggles to score.

TOTAL GOALS

Under 2.5 Goals

Total: 2.0

60%

Both teams exhibit a strong tendency towards low-scoring matches, with Famalicao's games averaging 2.1 total goals and Estrela's 2.8. Famalicao has gone 'Under 2.5 Goals' in 86.2% of their matches, and Estrela in 79.3%. Famalicao's strong defense (0.9 goals conceded per game) makes a clean sheet or a low-scoring affair highly probable. The predicted score of 0-1 aligns with both 'Under 2.5 Goals' and 'BTTS No'.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

No

55%

Both teams exhibit a strong tendency towards low-scoring matches, with Famalicao's games averaging 2.1 total goals and Estrela's 2.8. Famalicao has gone 'Under 2.5 Goals' in 86.2% of their matches, and Estrela in 79.3%. Famalicao's strong defense (0.9 goals conceded per game) makes a clean sheet or a low-scoring affair highly probable. The predicted score of 0-1 aligns with both 'Under 2.5 Goals' and 'BTTS No'.

📊 More Markets

Goal Markets

Total Goals (O/U 1.5)

Under 1.5

65%

Consistent with the predicted 0-1 scoreline and the low goal averages for both teams, particularly Famalicao's away scoring (0.9 goals/game) and Estrela's home conceding (1.5 goals/game).

Total Goals (O/U 3.5)

Under 3.5

80%

Both teams have a very high percentage of games with under 3.5 goals. Famalicao has only had 1 game over 3.5 goals, and Estrela only 2. This is a very safe 'Under' pick.

1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)

Over 0.5

65%

Both teams have shown a propensity to score or concede in the first half. While a 0-1 final score is predicted, a single goal in the first half is a common occurrence in football.

First Team to Score

Away

60%

Famalicao is the more attacking and in-form team, and Estrela has failed to score in many matches. Famalicao is more likely to open the scoring.

Goal in Both Halves

No

60%

Given the expectation of a low-scoring match (0-1), it's less likely that goals will be scored in both halves.

Most Likely Score

0-1

20%

Based on Famalicao's strong defense, Estrela's struggles in attack, and the overall low-scoring nature of both teams' matches, a narrow 0-1 victory for Famalicao is the most plausible exact score.

BTTS 1st Half

No

60%

With a predicted low-scoring game and a tight first half, both teams scoring in the first 45 minutes is unlikely.

xG Based (O/U 2.5)

Under 2.5 xG

70%

Based on the low actual goal output and strong defensive records, the expected goals (xG) for this match are likely to be below 2.5.

🏆 Result Markets

Double Chance

X2

70%

Famalicao is the stronger team in better form. An away win or a draw is the most probable outcome, as also suggested by the API-Sports prediction.

Draw No Bet

Away

65%

Given Famalicao's superior league position and form, they are the more likely side to win. This market offers a safety net in case of a draw.

HT/FT

Draw/Away

30%

A tight first half with no goals (Draw at HT) is plausible, followed by Famalicao breaking the deadlock in the second half to secure the win (Away at FT).

📊 Team Stats

Total Corners (O/U 9.5)

Over 9.5

60%

Liga Portugal matches typically see a moderate to high number of corners. Both teams will likely push for opportunities, leading to deflections and clearances.

Total Cards (O/U 3.5)

Over 3.5

70%

Both Estrela (2.55 yellow cards/game) and Famalicao (2.66 yellow cards/game) accumulate a fair number of bookings. A competitive match, especially with Estrela fighting relegation, is likely to see several cards.

Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)

Over 8.5

60%

While a low-scoring game is expected, both teams will still aim for goal. Famalicao will press for a win, and Estrela will try to defend and counter, leading to a reasonable number of shots on target combined.

Total Shots (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

55%

Even in a low-scoring game, teams will attempt many shots, some off-target. Both sides will be looking for opportunities, contributing to a decent total shot count.

Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

60%

Liga Portugal matches are often physical. With Estrela fighting relegation and Famalicao pushing for European spots, a competitive and potentially feisty encounter is expected, leading to a higher foul count.

Possession Winner

Away

60%

Famalicao, as the higher-ranked and more dominant team, is expected to control possession for larger periods of the game.

Estrela Clean Sheet

No

65%

Famalicao has a strong defensive record, keeping 14 clean sheets in 29 games (5 away from 14). Estrela struggles to score, failing to score in 13 of their 29 matches. Therefore, Famalicao is more likely to keep a clean sheet, while Estrela is expected to concede at least once.

Famalicao Clean Sheet

Yes

65%

Famalicao has a strong defensive record, keeping 14 clean sheets in 29 games (5 away from 14). Estrela struggles to score, failing to score in 13 of their 29 matches. Therefore, Famalicao is more likely to keep a clean sheet, while Estrela is expected to concede at least once.

Estrela vs Famalicao Key Stats

EstrelaStatFamalicao
15th League Position5th
28 Points47
29 Games Played29
6 Wins13
10 Draws8
33 Goals Scored36
48 Goals Conceded25
1.1 Goals Per Game1.2
7 Clean Sheets14
DLWLL Recent FormWWWDD
🏟️

Estádio José Gomes

Home Ground

4:00 PM UTC

Sunday, May 10

Matchday kickoff

Liga Portugal

Soccer

Betting Angles Estrela vs Famalicao

💰 Sharp Money

Without odds data, it's impossible to track sharp money movements. However, smart money would likely be on Famalicao to win or draw, possibly with an 'Under 2.5 Goals' bet. Line movement: N/A - No odds provided.

AI Same Game Parlay Estrela vs Famalicao

🔥 RECOMMENDED SGP

3-Leg
Famalicao Win2.00
Under 2.5 Goals1.85
BTTS: No1.72

Combined Odds: 6.36 (+536)

AI Confidence: 23%

$10 → $63.64 | $25 → $159.10 | $50 → $318.20

Correlation: POSITIVE ✅ — all legs support each other

Risk Assessment

Medium Risk
6/10
  • ⚠️Estrela's home advantage could make them more resilient than their form suggests.
  • ⚠️The high draw probability indicated by API-Sports (45%) presents a risk to a straight away win prediction.
  • ⚠️The historical H2H favoring Estrela could be a psychological factor.
  • ⚠️Liga Portugal can be unpredictable, especially in mid-to-lower table clashes.

Model Confidence

68%

Data quality: High - Comprehensive team statistics and league standings were provided, allowing for a detailed analysis of form, goals, and defensive/offensive capabilities.

Limitations

  • No direct H2H match results were provided, only an API-Sports H2H percentage.
  • No real-time odds were available, limiting value bet identification.
  • No injury reports or squad news were available, which could impact team performance.
  • No xG data was provided, requiring inference for xG-based predictions.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.

Estrela vs Famalicao FAQ

Based on current form and league standings, Famalicao is most likely to win this match.