La LigaLa LigaEstadio Manuel Martรญnez Valero

Sunday, May 10, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC

Kickoff in 21d 13h 10m

Elche

Elche

vs

Alaves

Alaves

66%
14%
20%
ElcheDrawAlaves

AI Pick: Elche Win

Confidence: 62%

1X2: Elche Win (62%)

O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals

BTTS: No

Elche vs Alaves Prediction

This La Liga clash between Elche and Alaves is a crucial relegation six-pointer. Elche, despite being in the relegation zone, has a strong home record, while Alaves struggles significantly on the road. A tight, low-scoring affair is expected, with Elche's home advantage likely to be the decisive factor.

AI-powered prediction

MATCH RESULT

Elche Win

Predicted: 1-0

62%

Elche boasts a strong home record with 7 wins, 7 draws, and only 2 losses in 16 home games, conceding an average of just 1.0 goals. Alaves, conversely, has a poor away record, with only 3 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses in 16 away matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goals and conceding 1.8. This is a crucial relegation battle, and Elche's home advantage, combined with Alaves' struggles on the road, makes a home win the most probable outcome. API-Sports also suggests 'Elche or draw', and Poisson prediction favors Elche significantly.

TOTAL GOALS

Under 2.5 Goals

Total: 2.3

60%

Both teams show a strong tendency for low-scoring games, with their 'under_over 2.5' stats heavily skewed towards 'under' (Elche: 2 over, 29 under; Alaves: 3 over, 28 under). Elche's home defense is solid (1.0 goals conceded per game), and Alaves struggles to score away (1.0 goals per game, failed to score in 7 of 16 away matches). This points to a tight, low-scoring affair, making Under 2.5 Goals and BTTS No the most logical predictions.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

No

55%

Both teams show a strong tendency for low-scoring games, with their 'under_over 2.5' stats heavily skewed towards 'under' (Elche: 2 over, 29 under; Alaves: 3 over, 28 under). Elche's home defense is solid (1.0 goals conceded per game), and Alaves struggles to score away (1.0 goals per game, failed to score in 7 of 16 away matches). This points to a tight, low-scoring affair, making Under 2.5 Goals and BTTS No the most logical predictions.

๐Ÿ“Š More Markets

โšฝ Goal Markets

Total Goals (O/U 1.5)

Over 1.5

70%

Despite the prediction for Under 2.5 goals, the average total goals in Elche's home matches (2.6) and Alaves' away matches (2.8) suggest that at least two goals are more likely than not.

Total Goals (O/U 3.5)

Under 3.5

80%

With both teams showing a strong tendency for low-scoring games and the primary prediction being Under 2.5 Goals, it is highly improbable that the match will see 4 or more goals.

1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)

Over 0.5

75%

While a low-scoring game is predicted overall, the average goals scored/conceded in the first half for both teams combined suggests a goal before halftime is more likely than not (Elche 1.03 avg, Alaves 1.0 avg).

First Team to Score

Home

65%

Elche has a better scoring record at home (1.6 goals/game) compared to Alaves' away scoring (1.0 goals/game) and Elche's strong motivation to win at home.

Goal in Both Halves

No

60%

Given the expectation of a low-scoring match (Under 2.5 Goals) and both teams' historical goal distribution, it's more likely that goals will not be scored in both halves.

Most Likely Score

1-0

25%

A 1-0 victory for Elche aligns with their strong home defense, Alaves' weak away attack, and the overall prediction of a low-scoring match (Under 2.5 Goals, BTTS No).

BTTS 1st Half

No

70%

With a predicted low-scoring game and BTTS No for the full match, it is highly unlikely that both teams will score in the first half.

xG Based (O/U 2.5)

Under 2.5 xG

60%

Consistent with the prediction of a low-scoring match, the expected goals (xG) are also anticipated to be low, reflecting fewer high-quality scoring chances.

๐Ÿ† Result Markets

Double Chance

1X

75%

API-Sports explicitly advises 'Elche or draw' (1X), and Elche's strong home form against Alaves' poor away form makes this a very safe bet.

Draw No Bet

Home

62%

Based on Elche's strong home record and the critical nature of the match for them, a home win is the primary prediction. Draw No Bet on Home provides a safety net.

HT/FT

Draw/Home

55%

Given the expectation of a tight, low-scoring game, it's plausible that the first half could end in a draw, with Elche pushing for and securing a win in the second half due to home advantage and greater motivation.

๐Ÿ“Š Team Stats

Total Corners (O/U 9.5)

Over 9.5

55%

While specific corner data is unavailable, La Liga matches often feature a decent number of corners as teams push for attacks, especially in a high-stakes game like this.

Total Cards (O/U 3.5)

Over 3.5

65%

Both Elche (65 yellow, 3 red) and Alaves (78 yellow, 5 red) accumulate a significant number of cards. Given the importance of this relegation battle, a physical and competitive match is expected, leading to multiple bookings.

Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)

Over 8.5

55%

Without specific data, a general expectation for a competitive La Liga match is for both teams to register several shots on target, especially with the high stakes involved.

Total Shots (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

55%

In a crucial match, both teams will likely attempt numerous shots to break the deadlock, even if many are off target.

Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

55%

La Liga matches, especially those with high stakes like a relegation battle, tend to be physical, leading to a higher number of fouls.

Possession Winner

Home

55%

Playing at home, Elche will likely try to control the tempo and possession, especially needing a win to climb out of the relegation zone.

Elche Clean Sheet

Yes

65%

Elche has kept 7 clean sheets in 16 home games and concedes only 1.0 goals per home match. Alaves has failed to score in 7 of their 16 away games and only has 1 away clean sheet. This indicates a higher probability of Elche keeping a clean sheet and Alaves not.

Alaves Clean Sheet

No

65%

Elche has kept 7 clean sheets in 16 home games and concedes only 1.0 goals per home match. Alaves has failed to score in 7 of their 16 away games and only has 1 away clean sheet. This indicates a higher probability of Elche keeping a clean sheet and Alaves not.

Elche vs Alaves โ€” Key Stats

ElcheStatAlaves
18th League Positionโœ… 17th
32 Pointsโœ… 33
31 Games Played31
7 Winsโœ… 8
11 Drawsโœ… 9
39 โœ…Goals Scored35
47 Goals Concededโœ… 46
1.3 โœ…Goals Per Game1.1
7 โœ…Clean Sheets3
LLWLW โœ…Recent FormLDWDD
๐ŸŸ๏ธ

Estadio Manuel Martรญnez Valero

Home Ground

โฐ

4:00 PM UTC

Sunday, May 10

Matchday kickoff

โšฝ

La Liga

Soccer

Betting Angles โ€” Elche vs Alaves

๐Ÿ’ฐ Sharp Money

N/A - No odds data available. Line movement: N/A - No odds data available.

AI Same Game Parlay โ€” Elche vs Alaves

๐Ÿ”ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP

3-Leg
Elche Win2.00
Under 2.5 Goals1.85
BTTS: No1.72

Combined Odds: 6.36 (+536)

AI Confidence: 22%

$10 โ†’ $63.64 | $25 โ†’ $159.10 | $50 โ†’ $318.20

Correlation: POSITIVE โœ… โ€” all legs support each other

Risk Assessment

Medium Risk
6/10
  • โš ๏ธLack of direct bookmaker odds makes value betting difficult and relies solely on statistical models.
  • โš ๏ธBoth teams are in the lower half of the table, making the match highly unpredictable due to high stakes (relegation battle).
  • โš ๏ธAlaves' slightly better H2H record could be a psychological factor.
  • โš ๏ธThe low-scoring nature of the predicted game means a single moment of brilliance or error could swing the result.

Model Confidence

โšก68%

Data quality: High - Comprehensive team statistics and standings data were available.

Limitations

  • โ€ขAbsence of real-time bookmaker odds for comparison and value bet identification.
  • โ€ขLack of specific H2H match results for deeper trend analysis.
  • โ€ขNo injury reports or player-specific data to factor into predictions.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.

Elche vs Alaves โ€” FAQ

Elche has a strong home record with 7 wins, 7 draws, and only 2 losses in 16 home games this season.