BrasileirãoMonday, May 25, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC
Kickoff in 21d 18h 45m
Coritiba
vs
Bahia
AI Pick: Bahia Win
Confidence: 46%
1X2: Bahia Win (46%)
O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
BTTS: No
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Bet Bahia Win · AI confidence 46%
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Coritiba vs Bahia Prediction
Bahia is favored to win or draw against Coritiba in this Brasileirão fixture. Despite both teams showing mixed recent form, Bahia holds a superior league position, a stronger away record, and a dominant head-to-head history against Coritiba. A low-scoring match is expected, with Bahia likely to secure a narrow victory.
MATCH RESULT
Bahia Win
Predicted: 0-1
46%
Bahia enters this match slightly ahead in the league standings (6th vs 7th) and boasts a superior away record (4 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) compared to Coritiba's home form (2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). Crucially, the head-to-head record heavily favors Bahia, with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 encounters against Coritiba. While both teams have experienced mixed recent form in the league, Bahia's overall attacking output (1.5 goals per game) is better than Coritiba's (1.1 goals per game), and Coritiba struggles to score at home (0.8 goals per game). The API-Sports prediction also strongly suggests a 'Win or draw' for Bahia, with a 45% chance for an away win. Despite some injury concerns for both sides, Bahia's historical dominance in this fixture and stronger away performance give them the edge. A low-scoring affair is anticipated given both teams' goal averages.
TOTAL GOALS
Under 2.5 Goals
Total: 1.8
60%
Coritiba's home games average 1.5 total goals (0.8 for, 0.7 against), and Bahia's away games average 2.7 total goals (1.3 for, 1.4 against). Both teams have a very low percentage of games going 'Over 2.5 goals' in the season so far (Coritiba 1/14, Bahia 1/13). This strongly points to an 'Under 2.5 Goals' outcome. For 'Both Teams To Score', while both teams have scored and conceded in a majority of their respective home/away games, the low overall goal expectation and Coritiba's struggle to score at home suggest that one team might keep a clean sheet, making 'No' a slightly more probable outcome.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
No
55%
Coritiba's home games average 1.5 total goals (0.8 for, 0.7 against), and Bahia's away games average 2.7 total goals (1.3 for, 1.4 against). Both teams have a very low percentage of games going 'Over 2.5 goals' in the season so far (Coritiba 1/14, Bahia 1/13). This strongly points to an 'Under 2.5 Goals' outcome. For 'Both Teams To Score', while both teams have scored and conceded in a majority of their respective home/away games, the low overall goal expectation and Coritiba's struggle to score at home suggest that one team might keep a clean sheet, making 'No' a slightly more probable outcome.
📊 More Markets
⚽ Goal Markets
Total Goals (O/U 1.5)
Over 1.5
While 'Under 2.5 Goals' is strongly favored, a 1-0 or 1-1 scoreline would still result in 'Over 1.5 Goals'. Both teams have a higher percentage of games with over 1.5 goals than over 2.5 goals, making this a more confident pick than Over 2.5.
Total Goals (O/U 3.5)
Under 3.5
With a strong prediction for 'Under 2.5 Goals' and both teams' low scoring averages, it is highly improbable for the match to exceed 3.5 goals. This is a very confident 'Under' pick.
1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)
Over 0.5
Both Coritiba and Bahia have shown a tendency to score in the first half of their matches. Coritiba has scored 6 goals in the first half this season, and Bahia has scored 11. [from team stats] Historically, 39.4% of Brasileirão matches have at least one goal in the first half. This makes 'Over 0.5 Goals' in the first half a likely scenario.
First Team to Score
Away
Bahia has a better attacking record and Coritiba struggles to score at home. This makes Bahia more likely to open the scoring.
Goal in Both Halves
No
Given the expectation of a low-scoring match (Under 2.5 Goals), it is less likely that goals will be scored in both halves. A single goal or goals concentrated in one half is more probable.
Most Likely Score
0-1
Reflecting the predicted away win for Bahia and the expectation of a low-scoring match, a 0-1 scoreline is a plausible exact score. Coritiba's low home scoring (0.8 goals per game) makes a clean sheet for Bahia more likely.
BTTS 1st Half
No
With a low expectation for total goals and a tendency for fewer goals in the first half (25.8% of Brasileirão matches have 0 first-half goals), both teams scoring in the first half is a highly unlikely event.
xG Based (O/U 2.5)
Under 2.5 xG
Given the low expected goals for the match (Under 2.5 Goals prediction) and the teams' scoring averages, it's highly probable that the combined Expected Goals (xG) will also be under 2.5.
🏆 Result Markets
Double Chance
X2
The API-Sports prediction explicitly advises 'Double chance: draw or Bahia', with a combined probability of 90% (45% draw + 45% away win). Bahia's strong H2H record and better away form further support this pick.
Draw No Bet
Away
Given Bahia is the slight favorite and the strong H2H advantage, picking Bahia in a Draw No Bet market offers a safer option, returning the stake if the match ends in a draw.
HT/FT
Draw/Away
Considering the low-scoring nature and the potential for a tight first half, a draw at halftime is a reasonable possibility. Bahia's slight superiority and stronger H2H could then see them secure a win in the second half.
📊 Team Stats
Total Corners (O/U 9.5)
Over 9.5
The average corners per game in Brazil Serie A 2026 is 9.98. Coritiba concedes a high average of 7.08 corners per game, while Bahia's games average 9.6 total corners. Coritiba's tendency to concede many corners, even at home, should push the total over 9.5.
Total Cards (O/U 3.5)
Over 3.5
Brasileirão matches are typically competitive and can be physical. The average fouls per game in Serie A 2026 is 26.02. Bahia averages 14.4 fouls per game and Coritiba 11.2. This high foul count often translates to a decent number of cards. Over 3.5 cards is a reasonable expectation.
Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)
Over 8.5
Bahia averages 5.33 shots on target per game, and Coritiba averages 4.85 shots on target per game. While both teams are not exceptionally high in shots, a combined average of over 8.5 shots on target is plausible in a competitive league match.
Total Shots (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
The average total shots per game in Serie A 2026 is 26.22. Bahia averages 12.9 shots per game and Coritiba 10.6. Their combined average of 23.5 shots suggests the total could go over 22.5.
Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
The average fouls per game in Brazil Serie A 2026 is 26.02. Bahia averages 14.4 fouls and Coritiba 11.2, combining for an expected 25.6 fouls. This indicates that 'Over 22.5 fouls' is a reasonable prediction.
Possession Winner
Away
Bahia has a higher passing accuracy (80%), which often correlates with controlling possession. While Coritiba is at home, Bahia's overall slightly better quality might allow them to dictate the tempo and possession.
Coritiba Clean Sheet
No
Bahia has a stronger attacking record (1.5 goals per game) compared to Coritiba's low home scoring (0.8 goals per game). Given the predicted low-scoring nature of the match and Bahia's slight advantage, Bahia is more likely to keep a clean sheet than Coritiba.
Bahia Clean Sheet
Yes
Bahia has a stronger attacking record (1.5 goals per game) compared to Coritiba's low home scoring (0.8 goals per game). Given the predicted low-scoring nature of the match and Bahia's slight advantage, Bahia is more likely to keep a clean sheet than Coritiba.
Coritiba vs Bahia — Key Stats
Betting Angles — Coritiba vs Bahia
💰 Sharp Money
Without specific odds data, it's difficult to pinpoint sharp money movement. However, the API-Sports prediction for Bahia 'Win or draw' suggests market confidence in Bahia avoiding defeat. Line movement: N/A (No odds provided)
AI Same Game Parlay — Coritiba vs Bahia
🔥 RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 6.36 (+536)
AI Confidence: 16%
$10 → $63.64 | $25 → $159.10 | $50 → $318.20
Correlation: POSITIVE ✅ — all legs support each other
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- ⚠️Both teams have inconsistent recent league form, making the outcome less predictable.
- ⚠️Significant injuries on both sides could alter team dynamics and performance.
- ⚠️The Brasileirão is known for its competitive nature and potential for unexpected results, even with strong H2H trends.
- ⚠️Low-scoring matches can be decided by a single moment, increasing variance.
Model Confidence
⚡68%
Data quality: High - Comprehensive team statistics, standings, recent form, H2H, and injury reports were available through Google Search and provided data.
Limitations
- •Lack of real-time odds data to compare against model probabilities for value bets.
- •Specific confirmed lineups for the match day are not yet available, only predicted general formations and injury lists.
- •Some conflicting information regarding Bahia's recent form and injury status from different search snippets, requiring careful interpretation.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Coritiba vs Bahia — FAQ
The predicted score for the match is 0-1 in favor of Bahia.