MLSSoldier FieldSaturday, May 9, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC
Kickoff in 21d 6h 33m

Chicago Fire
vs

New York Red Bulls
AI Pick: Chicago Fire Win
Confidence: 65%
1X2: Chicago Fire Win (โก65%)
O/U 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
BTTS: Yes
Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls Prediction
Chicago Fire hosts New York Red Bulls in an MLS Eastern Conference clash with Chicago looking to leverage their strong home form and improved defense. While the Red Bulls possess attacking threat, their away defensive record is a concern. Chicago Fire is favored to win, but a competitive match with goals from both sides is anticipated.
MATCH RESULT
Chicago Fire Win
Predicted: 2-1
โก65%
Chicago Fire enters this match with strong home form, boasting 3 wins and only 1 loss in their 4 home fixtures this season, coupled with a significantly improved defense that has secured 4 clean sheets in 7 overall matches. Their recent league form (WWWLD) is also positive. In contrast, New York Red Bulls, while having a decent overall record, show vulnerabilities in their away defense, conceding 10 goals in 4 away games (an average of 2.5 goals per game). Although the historical head-to-head is balanced, recent MLS encounters (last 6) slightly favor Chicago Fire (3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). The API-Sports comparison also heavily leans towards Chicago Fire in form, defense, H2H, and Poisson probability. Despite API-Sports suggesting a high probability for a draw (45%), Chicago's home advantage and defensive solidity make a home win the more probable outcome, with the Red Bulls likely to find the net given their away scoring record.
TOTAL GOALS
Over 2.5 Goals
Total: 3.0
60%
New York Red Bulls' matches have been high-scoring this season, particularly away, where they average 4.0 total goals per game (6 for, 10 against in 4 matches). While Chicago Fire's home games are typically lower scoring (2.0 total goals average), the Red Bulls' leaky away defense and their ability to score on the road suggest a higher-scoring affair. Head-to-head statistics also indicate a 63% chance for BTTS and 51% for Over 2.5 Goals. Therefore, Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score are strong predictions.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
Yes
55%
New York Red Bulls' matches have been high-scoring this season, particularly away, where they average 4.0 total goals per game (6 for, 10 against in 4 matches). While Chicago Fire's home games are typically lower scoring (2.0 total goals average), the Red Bulls' leaky away defense and their ability to score on the road suggest a higher-scoring affair. Head-to-head statistics also indicate a 63% chance for BTTS and 51% for Over 2.5 Goals. Therefore, Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score are strong predictions.
๐ More Markets
โฝ Goal Markets
Total Goals (O/U 1.5)
Over 1.5
With both teams showing offensive capabilities and New York Red Bulls' matches averaging 3.7 goals, scoring at least two goals in the match is highly probable.
Total Goals (O/U 3.5)
Under 3.5
While Over 2.5 is predicted, Chicago Fire's strong defensive record at home (0.5 goals conceded per home game) makes it less likely for the total goals to exceed 3.5, despite New York Red Bulls' higher-scoring away games.
1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)
Over 0.5
Both Chicago Fire (22.22% of goals in 0-15 min) and New York Red Bulls (30% of goals in 0-15 min) have shown an ability to score early in games. This, combined with the offensive capabilities of both teams, makes a goal in the first half highly probable.
First Team to Score
Home
Chicago Fire has a strong home advantage and has shown an ability to score early in matches. Combined with their overall stronger form, they are more likely to open the scoring.
Goal in Both Halves
Yes
Given the expectation of at least 3 goals in the match and both teams' scoring patterns across different periods, it is likely that goals will be scored in both halves.
Most Likely Score
2-1
This score reflects Chicago Fire's solid home attack (1.5 goals per home game) and improved defense (0.5 goals conceded per home game), while acknowledging New York Red Bulls' ability to score away (1.5 goals per away game) despite their defensive weaknesses.
BTTS 1st Half
No
While both teams can score, Chicago Fire's improved defense makes it less probable for both teams to score in the first half, especially against a team like New York Red Bulls who can be inconsistent.
xG Based (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5 xG
Given the offensive capabilities of both teams and New York Red Bulls' tendency for high-scoring games, the combined expected goals (xG) for this match is likely to be above 2.5.
๐ Result Markets
Double Chance
1X
The API-Sports prediction explicitly advises 'Double chance: Chicago Fire or draw' with a combined 90% probability (45% win, 45% draw). Chicago Fire's strong home form and defensive improvements further solidify this pick.
Draw No Bet
Home
Given Chicago Fire is the predicted winner with a good home record and strong defensive form, backing them on a Draw No Bet market provides a safer option, returning the stake if the match ends in a draw.
HT/FT
Draw/Home
Chicago Fire has shown a tendency to score later in games (33.33% of goals in 76-90 min), and New York Red Bulls concede a high percentage of goals in the same period (60% in 76-90 min). This suggests the game could be tight at halftime before Chicago Fire secures the win in the second half.
๐ Team Stats
Total Corners (O/U 9.5)
Over 9.5
MLS matches generally feature a decent number of corners due to attacking play and defensive clearances. While specific team corner stats for this season weren't detailed in the search, the attacking nature of both teams, especially New York Red Bulls, suggests a likelihood of reaching over 9.5 corners in total.
Total Cards (O/U 3.5)
Over 3.5
Both teams have shown a tendency for cards, with Chicago Fire receiving a significant percentage of yellow cards in the 76-90 minute range (35.29%) and New York Red Bulls having high percentages in both 46-60 (33.33%) and 76-90 (33.33%) minutes. This indicates a competitive match where late fouls and tactical bookings are probable.
Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)
Over 8.5
Given the expectation of goals from both sides and the attacking intent, particularly from New York Red Bulls who average 1.6 goals per game, a combined total of over 8.5 shots on target is a reasonable expectation for an MLS fixture.
Total Shots (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
With both teams looking to attack and New York Red Bulls' tendency for higher-scoring games, a combined total of over 22.5 shots (on and off target) is a reasonable estimate for an MLS match.
Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
MLS matches are often physical and competitive, leading to a higher number of fouls. This Eastern Conference clash is expected to be no different.
Possession Winner
Away
New York Red Bulls, under new manager Michael Bradley, are expected to shift their tactical style to keep more possession this season. This could see them dominate possession even when playing away from home.
Chicago Fire Clean Sheet
No
While Chicago Fire has an impressive 4 clean sheets in 7 games this season, New York Red Bulls have scored 6 goals in their 4 away matches. This suggests the Red Bulls are likely to break Chicago's defense. Conversely, New York Red Bulls have only kept 1 clean sheet in 7 games and have a poor away defensive record, making an away clean sheet highly unlikely.
New York Red Bulls Clean Sheet
No
While Chicago Fire has an impressive 4 clean sheets in 7 games this season, New York Red Bulls have scored 6 goals in their 4 away matches. This suggests the Red Bulls are likely to break Chicago's defense. Conversely, New York Red Bulls have only kept 1 clean sheet in 7 games and have a poor away defensive record, making an away clean sheet highly unlikely.
Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls โ Key Stats
Soldier Field
Home Ground
6:30 PM UTC
Saturday, May 9
Matchday kickoff
MLS
Soccer
Betting Angles โ Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls
๐ฐ Sharp Money
Without live odds, it's difficult to pinpoint sharp money movement. However, given the API-Sports 'Win or Draw' advice for Chicago Fire, sharp money might be on the double chance or Asian Handicap for the home team to mitigate draw risk. Line movement: Assuming initial lines would favor Chicago Fire slightly, strong defensive performances and home advantage could see the line move further in their favor, or the 'Over' line for goals might shift upwards due to New York Red Bulls' high-scoring away games.
AI Same Game Parlay โ Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls
๐ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 6.36 (+536)
AI Confidence: 23%
$10 โ $63.64 | $25 โ $159.10 | $50 โ $318.20
Correlation: POSITIVE โ โ all legs support each other
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- โ ๏ธNew York Red Bulls' ability to score away goals, despite their defensive issues, could lead to a more open game than Chicago Fire's home defensive record suggests.
- โ ๏ธThe historically balanced head-to-head record means this fixture is often unpredictable.
- โ ๏ธThe absence of specific lineup announcements for the match day means potential last-minute changes could impact the outcome.
- โ ๏ธThe API-Sports prediction showing a 45% chance of a draw indicates a significant possibility of the match ending level.
Model Confidence
โก70%
Data quality: High. Comprehensive team statistics, league standings, recent form, and head-to-head data were available. Google Search provided recent news, injury updates, and further H2H details.
Limitations
- โขAbsence of live odds prevented calculation of specific value bets and implied probabilities.
- โขExact starting lineups for the match day were not available.
- โขDetailed xG data for individual teams in this specific fixture was not found in the search results.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls โ FAQ
Chicago Fire has a strong home record this season with 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss in 4 matches.