Premier LeaguePremier LeagueStamford Bridge

Sunday, May 17, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC

Kickoff in 21d 9h 54m

Chelsea

Chelsea

vs

Tottenham

Tottenham

30%
20%
50%
ChelseaDrawTottenham

AI Pick: Tottenham Win

Confidence: 46%

1X2: Tottenham Win (46%)

O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals

BTTS: No

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Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction

This Premier League fixture pits 8th-placed Chelsea against 18th-placed Tottenham. Chelsea is in a dire run of form, having lost their last five league matches, while Tottenham is fighting for survival in the relegation zone. Despite Chelsea's higher league standing and historical dominance in this derby, current form and detailed statistical comparisons strongly favor Tottenham to secure at least a draw, if not an outright win.

AI-powered prediction

MATCH RESULT

Tottenham Win

Predicted: 0-1

46%

Chelsea is in a severe crisis of form, having lost their last five league matches (LLLLL in standings form, 0% form rating by API-Sports). This is a critical factor overshadowing their higher league position (8th). Tottenham, despite being in the relegation zone (18th), shows significantly better recent form (WDLLD) and is rated 100% in form, attack, and 61% in defense by API-Sports comparison, compared to Chelsea's 0% in form and attack. The API-Sports prediction explicitly advises 'Win or draw' for Tottenham. While Chelsea has a strong historical H2H record (100% H2H rating), current form and performance metrics are more indicative of the immediate outcome. Tottenham's away record (6W 5D 6L) is also more respectable than their home record. Given Chelsea's struggles, Tottenham is favored to at least avoid defeat, with a narrow away win being a plausible outcome.

TOTAL GOALS

Under 2.5 Goals

Total: 2.1

60%

Both Chelsea and Tottenham exhibit a strong tendency for low-scoring matches. Chelsea's 'goals for under_over 2.5' shows 27 under 2.5, and Tottenham's shows 31 under 2.5. Their average goals per game (Chelsea 1.6 for, 1.3 against; Tottenham 1.3 for, 1.6 against) also point to a total around 2.9 goals. Given Chelsea's poor attacking form and Tottenham's slightly better defensive rating, a clean sheet for Tottenham is plausible, leading to a 'No' for Both Teams To Score.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

No

55%

Both Chelsea and Tottenham exhibit a strong tendency for low-scoring matches. Chelsea's 'goals for under_over 2.5' shows 27 under 2.5, and Tottenham's shows 31 under 2.5. Their average goals per game (Chelsea 1.6 for, 1.3 against; Tottenham 1.3 for, 1.6 against) also point to a total around 2.9 goals. Given Chelsea's poor attacking form and Tottenham's slightly better defensive rating, a clean sheet for Tottenham is plausible, leading to a 'No' for Both Teams To Score.

๐Ÿ“Š More Markets

โšฝ Goal Markets

Total Goals (O/U 1.5)

Over 1.5

46%

While Under 2.5 Goals is a strong prediction, Over 1.5 Goals is still more likely than Under 1.5. Both teams average around 1.4 goals scored per game, and the combined average goals in their matches is around 2.9, making at least two goals probable.

Total Goals (O/U 3.5)

Under 3.5

35%

Both teams show extremely low numbers for matches with over 3.5 goals (Chelsea 2 over, 32 under; Tottenham 0 over, 34 under). This is a very strong indicator for Under 3.5 Goals.

1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)

Over 0.5

47%

While a low-scoring game is expected overall, a single goal in the first half is a common occurrence in Premier League matches. Both teams have shown capability to score and concede in the first 45 minutes.

First Team to Score

Away

46%

Tottenham's attack is rated 100% by API-Sports, and Chelsea's form suggests they might struggle to find the net first, especially against a team fighting for survival.

Goal in Both Halves

No

46%

Given the expectation of a low-scoring game and the 'Under 2.5 Goals' prediction, it is less likely that goals will be scored in both halves. A single goal or goals concentrated in one half is more probable.

Most Likely Score

0-1

20%

This score aligns with the predicted away win for Tottenham and the expectation of a low-scoring match (Under 2.5 Goals). Tottenham's better defensive rating and Chelsea's poor attacking form contribute to this specific scoreline.

BTTS 1st Half

No

35%

With a strong 'Under 2.5 Goals' prediction and a 'No' for BTTS overall, it is highly improbable that both teams will score in the first half of this match.

xG Based (O/U 2.5)

Under 2.5 xG

46%

Based on the expectation of a low-scoring game and the 'Under 2.5 Goals' prediction, the cumulative Expected Goals (xG) for both teams is likely to be below 2.5, reflecting fewer high-quality scoring chances.

๐Ÿ† Result Markets

Double Chance

X2

35%

The API-Sports prediction strongly suggests 'Win or draw' for Tottenham, with 45% for a draw and 45% for an away win. This translates to a 90% chance for the X2 double chance, making it a highly confident pick.

Draw No Bet

Away

46%

Given the primary prediction of an away win for Tottenham, and the strong 'Win or draw' signal from API-Sports, Tottenham Draw No Bet is the logical choice. If the match ends in a draw, the bet is void.

HT/FT

Draw/Away

55%

Considering the likelihood of a tight, low-scoring affair, a draw at halftime is plausible before Tottenham potentially finds a breakthrough in the second half, capitalizing on Chelsea's vulnerabilities.

๐Ÿ“Š Team Stats

Total Corners (O/U 9.5)

Over 9.5

46%

Premier League matches typically feature a good number of corners, and both teams will be looking to create chances, especially Tottenham on the counter and Chelsea trying to break down a resilient defense.

Total Cards (O/U 3.5)

Over 3.5

47%

Both teams have accumulated a high number of yellow cards this season (Chelsea 82, Tottenham 87). This is a London derby with high stakes (Chelsea trying to stop the rot, Tottenham fighting relegation), suggesting a competitive and potentially fiery encounter with several bookings.

Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)

Over 8.5

46%

Despite the expectation of a low-scoring game, both teams will aim for goal. Chelsea will be desperate to score at home, and Tottenham's attack is rated highly by API-Sports, suggesting they will test the goalkeeper.

Total Shots (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

46%

Both teams will be looking to create opportunities. Chelsea will push for a goal at home, and Tottenham will look to exploit Chelsea's poor form, leading to a decent volume of shots, even if many are off target.

Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

46%

Premier League matches, especially derbies with high stakes, tend to be physical. Both teams will be battling hard, likely leading to a higher number of fouls.

Possession Winner

Home

46%

Chelsea, playing at home, typically aims to control possession. Despite their poor form, they are likely to dominate the ball against a Tottenham side that might prefer to play on the counter-attack.

Chelsea Clean Sheet

No

46%

Chelsea's current form (LLLLL) suggests a struggle to score, and their attack is rated 0% by API-Sports. Tottenham's defense is rated 61% by API-Sports, making an away clean sheet plausible. Conversely, Chelsea has conceded in 12 of 17 home games, making a home clean sheet unlikely.

Tottenham Clean Sheet

Yes

46%

Chelsea's current form (LLLLL) suggests a struggle to score, and their attack is rated 0% by API-Sports. Tottenham's defense is rated 61% by API-Sports, making an away clean sheet plausible. Conversely, Chelsea has conceded in 12 of 17 home games, making a home clean sheet unlikely.

Chelsea vs Tottenham โ€” Key Stats

ChelseaStatTottenham
8th โœ…League Position18th
48 โœ…Points34
34 Games Played34
13 โœ…Wins8
9 โœ…Draws10
53 โœ…Goals Scored43
45 โœ…Goals Conceded53
1.6 โœ…Goals Per Game1.3
9 โœ…Clean Sheets8
LLLLL โœ…Recent FormDLLDW
๐ŸŸ๏ธ

Stamford Bridge

Home Ground

โฐ

2:00 PM UTC

Sunday, May 17

Matchday kickoff

โšฝ

Premier League

Soccer

Betting Angles โ€” Chelsea vs Tottenham

๐Ÿ’ฐ Sharp Money

N/A - No odds data available to analyze sharp money movements. Line movement: N/A - No odds data available to analyze line movements.

AI Same Game Parlay โ€” Chelsea vs Tottenham

๐Ÿ”ฅ RECOMMENDED SGP

3-Leg
Tottenham Win2.00
Under 2.5 Goals1.85
BTTS: No1.72

Combined Odds: 6.36 (+536)

AI Confidence: 16%

$10 โ†’ $63.64 | $25 โ†’ $159.10 | $50 โ†’ $318.20

Correlation: POSITIVE โœ… โ€” all legs support each other

Risk Assessment

High Risk
7/10
  • โš ๏ธChelsea's extremely poor current form (LLLLL) makes them highly unpredictable despite home advantage and historical H2H.
  • โš ๏ธTottenham's low league position (relegation zone) could either motivate them or add pressure, leading to inconsistent performance.
  • โš ๏ธThe strong historical H2H for Chelsea could be a psychological factor, but current form often overrides this.
  • โš ๏ธLack of real-time odds makes assessing market sentiment and value more challenging.

Model Confidence

โšก68%

Data quality: Good. Comprehensive team statistics, league standings, and API-Sports prediction/comparison data were available.

Limitations

  • โ€ขAbsence of real-time bookmaker odds prevents value bet identification and analysis of market sentiment/line movement.
  • โ€ขLack of specific injury reports for both teams.
  • โ€ขH2H data is aggregated (100% vs 0%) rather than specific match results, making it harder to gauge recent H2H trends.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.

Chelsea vs Tottenham โ€” FAQ

Chelsea is in very poor form, having lost their last five Premier League matches. Their overall season has been inconsistent, but the recent trend is a significant concern.