BrasileirãoBrasileirãoArena Fonte Nova

Saturday, Apr 25, 2026, 9:30 PM UTC

Kickoff in 14d 6h 3m

Bahia

Bahia

vs

Santos

Santos

78%
8%
14%
BahiaDrawSantos

AI Pick: Bahia Win

Confidence: 75%

1X2: Bahia Win (75%)

O/U 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals

BTTS: Yes

Bahia vs Santos Prediction

Bahia, in strong form and with a solid home record, is heavily favored to win against a struggling Santos side that has yet to win an away game this season. Bahia's offensive consistency at home combined with Santos's defensive vulnerabilities on the road points to a home victory with both teams likely to score.

AI-powered prediction

MATCH RESULT

Bahia Win

Predicted: 2-1

75%

Bahia enters this match in significantly better form and a higher league position (5th vs 15th). Their home record is solid (2W, 2D, 1L), with a positive goal difference at Arena Fonte Nova (8 goals for, 4 against). Santos, on the other hand, has a dismal away record this season (0W, 2D, 3L), conceding an average of 2.2 goals per away game. While Santos can score on the road, their defensive vulnerabilities, especially in the second half, are a major concern against a strong home side like Bahia. Bahia's ability to score consistently at home, combined with Santos's leaky away defense, points towards a home victory. The API-Sports prediction of 45% Home win and 45% Draw also highlights Bahia's strong chance of not losing, but given Santos's poor away form, a straight home win is favored.

TOTAL GOALS

Over 2.5 Goals

Total: 2.8

60%

Bahia averages 1.6 goals scored at home and Santos concedes 2.2 goals per away game, indicating a high potential for Bahia to score multiple goals. Santos, despite their poor form, still averages 1.2 goals away and has failed to score in only 1 of their 5 away games. Bahia has conceded in 3 of their 5 home games. This combination suggests both teams are likely to find the net, pushing the total goals towards the 'Over 2.5' mark. The combined average goals for/against in their respective home/away matches point to approximately 2.8 goals in total.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

Yes

55%

Bahia averages 1.6 goals scored at home and Santos concedes 2.2 goals per away game, indicating a high potential for Bahia to score multiple goals. Santos, despite their poor form, still averages 1.2 goals away and has failed to score in only 1 of their 5 away games. Bahia has conceded in 3 of their 5 home games. This combination suggests both teams are likely to find the net, pushing the total goals towards the 'Over 2.5' mark. The combined average goals for/against in their respective home/away matches point to approximately 2.8 goals in total.

📊 More Markets

Goal Markets

Total Goals (O/U 1.5)

Over 1.5

85%

With both teams likely to score and Santos's high away goals conceded, at least two goals in the match is a very high probability.

Total Goals (O/U 3.5)

Under 3.5

70%

While we expect over 2.5 goals, a total of 4 or more goals is less common in Brasileirão, especially with Bahia's relatively solid home defense. The combined average goals suggest it will likely stay under 3.5.

1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)

Over 0.5

85%

Both teams have shown a propensity to score in the first half. Bahia scores 42.86% of their goals in the 31-45 minute segment, and Santos scores 21.43% in both 16-30 and 31-45 minute segments. A goal before halftime is highly probable.

First Team to Score

Home

70%

Bahia's strong home attack and Santos's tendency to concede away goals make Bahia the more likely team to open the scoring.

Goal in Both Halves

Yes

65%

Both teams have shown capability to score in different periods of the game, and with the expectation of multiple goals, it's likely at least one goal will occur in each half.

Most Likely Score

2-1

15%

Based on Bahia's average home goals (1.6) and Santos's average away goals (1.2) and goals conceded (2.2), a 2-1 scoreline for Bahia seems a plausible outcome, reflecting Bahia's offensive strength and Santos's ability to score but defensive weakness.

BTTS 1st Half

No

70%

While BTTS 'Yes' is predicted for the full match, both teams scoring in the first half is less common, especially in a league known for tactical caution early on.

xG Based (O/U 2.5)

Over 2.5 xG

60%

Based on the predicted scoreline and the offensive/defensive averages, the quality of chances created by both teams combined is likely to exceed 2.5 expected goals.

🏆 Result Markets

Double Chance

1X

90%

Bahia's strong home form and Santos's poor away record make a Bahia win or draw a highly probable outcome. This aligns with the API-Sports prediction of 90% for 1X.

Draw No Bet

Home

80%

Given Bahia's superior form, home advantage, and Santos's struggles on the road, Bahia is the clear favorite. The 'Draw No Bet' market offers a safer way to back the home side.

HT/FT

Draw/Home

40%

Bahia often scores later in the first half (31-45 min) and in the second half. Santos also scores across halves. A tight first half leading to a Bahia victory in the second half is a reasonable scenario.

📊 Team Stats

Total Corners (O/U 9.5)

Over 9.5

65%

Both teams tend to attack, and with Santos's defense being vulnerable, Bahia will likely press, leading to corners. Santos might also seek counter-attacks, contributing to the total.

Total Cards (O/U 3.5)

Over 3.5

80%

Brasileirão matches are typically physical and competitive, often resulting in a high number of cards. Both teams have accumulated a fair share of yellow cards this season (Bahia 21, Santos 33), and with the stakes of the league, a robust encounter is expected.

Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)

Over 8.5

70%

Bahia's strong home attack (1.6 goals/game) against Santos's weak away defense (2.2 goals conceded/game) suggests Bahia will generate many shots. Santos will also attempt to score, contributing to the overall shot count.

Total Shots (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

60%

Given the attacking nature of Bahia at home and Santos's need to find goals, a combined total of over 22.5 shots (on and off target) is a reasonable expectation for a competitive match.

Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

75%

Brasileirão matches are typically fiercely contested, with a high number of fouls. Both teams will be battling for midfield control, leading to frequent stoppages.

Possession Winner

Home

70%

As the home team and the stronger side in better form, Bahia is expected to dominate possession and dictate the tempo of the game.

Bahia Clean Sheet

No

60%

While Bahia has a decent home defense, Santos has scored in 4 of their 5 away games. Conversely, Santos's away defense is poor, and Bahia has failed to score in 0 home games. It's more likely both teams will concede.

Santos Clean Sheet

No

60%

While Bahia has a decent home defense, Santos has scored in 4 of their 5 away games. Conversely, Santos's away defense is poor, and Bahia has failed to score in 0 home games. It's more likely both teams will concede.

Bahia vs Santos Key Stats

BahiaStatSantos
5th League Position15th
17 Points10
9 Games Played10
5 Wins2
2 Draws4
13 Goals Scored13
9 Goals Conceded16
1.4 Goals Per Game1.3
4 Clean Sheets2
WWLWL Recent FormDLDWL
🏟️

Arena Fonte Nova

Home Ground

9:30 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr 25

Matchday kickoff

Brasileirão

Soccer

Betting Angles Bahia vs Santos

Match Result: Bahia to Win

Given Bahia's strong home form and Santos's poor away record, a 2.00 odd for a Bahia win offers significant value. Our model estimates a 75% chance of a home victory, well above the implied probability of 50%.

Double Chance: Bahia or Draw (1X)

The API-Sports prediction gives a combined 90% chance for Bahia or a draw. If odds are around 1.25, this still presents a slight edge given the high probability of Bahia not losing at home against a struggling away side.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals

Bahia averages 1.6 goals at home and Santos concedes 2.2 goals away. Santos also scores 1.2 goals away. This suggests a higher-scoring affair than typical Brasileirão matches, making Over 2.5 a good value bet if odds are around 1.90.

💰 Sharp Money

Assuming the market reflects the stats, sharp money would likely be on Bahia to win, potentially on a Bahia -0.5 or -0.75 Asian Handicap, and Over 2.5 Goals. Line movement: If initial odds were to open with Santos being undervalued, expect significant line movement towards Bahia as smart money comes in. For Over/Under, if it opens at 2.25, expect it to move towards 2.5 or higher.

AI Same Game Parlay Bahia vs Santos

🔥 RECOMMENDED SGP

3-Leg
Bahia Win2.00
Over 2.5 Goals1.85
BTTS: Yes1.72

Combined Odds: 6.36 (+536)

AI Confidence: 26%

$10 → $63.64 | $25 → $159.10 | $50 → $318.20

Correlation: POSITIVE ✅ — all legs support each other

Risk Assessment

Medium Risk
4/10
  • ⚠️Santos's ability to score away goals despite poor form could lead to an unexpected draw or upset.
  • ⚠️The absence of specific odds makes value betting speculative without real market data.
  • ⚠️Brasileirão matches can be unpredictable, and a single moment of brilliance or error can change the game.

Model Confidence

80%

Data quality: High. Comprehensive team statistics and league standings were provided, allowing for a detailed analysis of current form and performance metrics.

Limitations

  • Absence of head-to-head records between the two teams.
  • Lack of specific injury reports for either squad.
  • No real-time odds provided, making value bet calculations hypothetical.
  • No xG data provided, requiring inference from actual goals.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.

Bahia vs Santos FAQ

Based on current form and home/away performance, a Bahia win is the most likely outcome.