BrasileirãoArena Fonte NovaSunday, May 17, 2026, 7:00 PM UTC
Kickoff in 21d 14h 53m
Bahia
vs
Gremio
AI Pick: Bahia Win
Confidence: 46%
1X2: Bahia Win (46%)
O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
BTTS: No
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Bet Bahia Win · AI confidence 46%
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Bahia vs Gremio Prediction
Bahia is strongly favored to win this Brasileirão Serie A match against Gremio at Arena Fonte Nova. Bahia's superior league position, solid home form, and dominant recent head-to-head record, combined with Gremio's abysmal away form and extensive injury list, paint a clear picture. Expect a low-scoring match where Bahia controls possession and creates more chances.
MATCH RESULT
Bahia Win
Predicted: 2-0
46%
Bahia, currently 5th in the Brasileirão Serie A, holds a significant advantage over 13th-placed Gremio. Bahia's home form is solid with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in 5 games, while Gremio's away record is abysmal, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses in 7 away matches. Gremio also faces a substantial injury list, including key players like Walter Kannemann, Marlon, João Pedro, and Mathías Villasanti. Recent head-to-head encounters heavily favor Bahia, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings, including a dominant 4-0 victory in October 2025. The API-Sports comparison further reinforces Bahia's superiority in form (78% vs 22%), attack (80% vs 20%), and overall probability (69.7% vs 30.3%). Despite Bahia's mixed recent form (LWLWL), Gremio's struggles, particularly away from home and with numerous injuries, make a home win the most probable outcome.
TOTAL GOALS
Under 2.5 Goals
Total: 2.2
60%
Bahia's home games average 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, totaling 2.4 goals per game. Gremio's away games average a low 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, totaling 2.2 goals per game. This combined average suggests a low-scoring affair, making Under 2.5 Goals a strong pick. For Both Teams To Score, Gremio's poor away scoring record (failed to score in 3 of 7 away games) coupled with Bahia's decent home defense (2 clean sheets in 5 home games) indicates that at least one team is likely to keep a clean sheet.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
No
55%
Bahia's home games average 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, totaling 2.4 goals per game. Gremio's away games average a low 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, totaling 2.2 goals per game. This combined average suggests a low-scoring affair, making Under 2.5 Goals a strong pick. For Both Teams To Score, Gremio's poor away scoring record (failed to score in 3 of 7 away games) coupled with Bahia's decent home defense (2 clean sheets in 5 home games) indicates that at least one team is likely to keep a clean sheet.
📊 More Markets
⚽ Goal Markets
Total Goals (O/U 1.5)
Over 1.5
While Under 2.5 Goals is predicted, the combined average goals for both teams (around 2.2-2.4) still makes Over 1.5 Goals quite likely. Bahia alone averages 1.6 goals at home. Gremio also concedes 1.6 goals away. This market offers a good balance.
Total Goals (O/U 3.5)
Under 3.5
With a prediction of Under 2.5 Goals and Gremio's low-scoring away form, it's highly improbable for this match to exceed 3 goals. Both teams' averages strongly support Under 3.5 Goals.
1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)
Over 0.5
Bahia has scored 6 goals in the 31-45 minute segment (35.29% of total goals) and 3 goals in the 16-30 minute segment (17.65%). Gremio has conceded 4 goals in the 16-30 minute segment (23.53%) and 3 in the 31-45 minute segment (17.65%). This suggests a goal before halftime is quite probable.
First Team to Score
Home
Bahia has a stronger attack at home and Gremio struggles to score away, especially with their injury list. It is highly probable that Bahia will open the scoring.
Goal in Both Halves
No
Given the expectation of a relatively low-scoring game (Under 2.5) and Gremio's defensive approach away from home, it's slightly more likely that goals will not be scored in both halves. One half might be goalless.
Most Likely Score
2-0
Based on Bahia's average home goals (1.6) and Gremio's low away scoring (0.6), a 2-0 scoreline for Bahia is a plausible outcome that aligns with the 'Under 2.5 Goals' and 'BTTS No' predictions. Exact scores are inherently difficult to predict, hence the low confidence.
BTTS 1st Half
No
Gremio's low scoring rate, especially away, makes it unlikely for them to score in the first half. Bahia might score, but both teams scoring before halftime is a rare occurrence in such matchups.
xG Based (O/U 2.5)
Under 2.5 xG
Given the expected low-scoring nature of the match and Gremio's struggles in attack, the combined Expected Goals (xG) for both teams is likely to be below 2.5.
🏆 Result Markets
Double Chance
1X
Bahia is the clear favorite, especially at home against a struggling Gremio side with a poor away record and significant injuries. The API-Sports prediction also suggests 'Win or draw' for Bahia with 90% probability (45% win, 45% draw). This is a very safe pick.
Draw No Bet
Home
Given Bahia's stronger form, home advantage, and Gremio's extensive injury list and poor away performance, Bahia is the more likely winner. The Draw No Bet market provides a safety net in case of a draw, which is a plausible outcome in Brasileirão, but Bahia is still the favored side.
HT/FT
Home/Home
Bahia is expected to dominate this match, especially at home. If they score in the first half, they are likely to maintain their lead. However, Gremio's defensive nature might keep the first half tight, so confidence is moderate.
📊 Team Stats
Total Corners (O/U 9.5)
Under 9.5
Both teams have relatively moderate corner statistics. Bahia averages 5.1 corners per game and Gremio averages 3.9. Given the expected tight nature of the game and Gremio's defensive posture away from home, it's likely to stay under 9.5 corners.
Total Cards (O/U 3.5)
Over 3.5
Brasileirão matches are often fiercely contested, leading to a higher number of cards. Bahia averages 2.0 yellow cards per game and Gremio averages 2.25. With Gremio struggling and potentially resorting to fouls, and Bahia playing at home, a competitive match is expected, pushing the card count over 3.5.
Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)
Under 8.5
Bahia averages 5.2 shots on target per game, while Gremio averages 3.8. With Gremio's defensive struggles and Bahia's efficiency, the total shots on target are likely to be around 8-9, making Under 8.5 a slightly more confident pick given the low-scoring expectation.
Total Shots (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
Bahia averages 12.5 shots per game and Gremio averages 11.8. While shots on target might be lower, the overall attempts could easily exceed 22.5, especially if Gremio is chasing the game.
Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)
Over 22.5
Brasileirão matches are known for being physical. Bahia averages 14.2 fouls per game and Gremio averages 12.8. A combined total of around 27 fouls makes Over 22.5 a reasonable pick.
Possession Winner
Home
Playing at home, Bahia is expected to control the tempo and possession against a Gremio side that might sit deeper and look to counter, especially given their away form.
Bahia Clean Sheet
Yes
Gremio has a very poor away scoring record (0.6 goals per game) and has failed to score in 3 of their 7 away matches. Bahia has kept 2 clean sheets in 5 home games. Given Gremio's injury woes and general struggles, a home clean sheet for Bahia is likely, while an away clean sheet for Gremio is highly improbable.
Gremio Clean Sheet
No
Gremio has a very poor away scoring record (0.6 goals per game) and has failed to score in 3 of their 7 away matches. Bahia has kept 2 clean sheets in 5 home games. Given Gremio's injury woes and general struggles, a home clean sheet for Bahia is likely, while an away clean sheet for Gremio is highly improbable.
Bahia vs Gremio — Key Stats
Arena Fonte Nova
Home Ground
7:00 PM UTC
Sunday, May 17
Matchday kickoff
Brasileirão
Soccer
Betting Angles — Bahia vs Gremio
💰 Sharp Money
Sharp money would likely be on Bahia to win, or on Bahia -0.5 Asian Handicap, given the statistical and injury disparities. Under 2.5 goals could also attract sharp money due to Gremio's low away scoring. Line movement: If odds were available, we would expect the line to move further in favor of Bahia as kick-off approaches, especially if Gremio's injury situation is confirmed to be as severe as reported.
AI Same Game Parlay — Bahia vs Gremio
🔥 RECOMMENDED SGP
3-LegCombined Odds: 6.36 (+536)
AI Confidence: 16%
$10 → $63.64 | $25 → $159.10 | $50 → $318.20
Correlation: POSITIVE ✅ — all legs support each other
Risk Assessment
Medium Risk- ⚠️Brasileirão unpredictability: Despite strong indicators, Brazilian league matches can often produce unexpected results.
- ⚠️Bahia's inconsistent recent form: While overall good, their last five matches show some losses.
- ⚠️Gremio's potential for a defensive upset: Even with injuries, a highly defensive Gremio could aim for a draw.
Model Confidence
⚡75%
Data quality: High. Comprehensive team statistics, league standings, recent form, H2H data, and injury reports were available and consistent across multiple sources.
Limitations
- •Absence of real-time odds for value bet analysis.
- •Predicted lineups are not confirmed until closer to match time, which could slightly alter dynamics.
- •Brasileirão's inherent unpredictability, where upsets can occur despite strong statistical indicators.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.
Bahia vs Gremio — FAQ
Bahia's overall form in the Brasileirão is good (6 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses), placing them 5th. However, their most recent five matches show a mixed record of LWLWL (2 wins, 3 losses).