La LigaLa LigaEstadio Mendizorrotza

Saturday, Apr 25, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

Kickoff in 14d 19h 34m

Alaves

Alaves

vs

Mallorca

Mallorca

74%
11%
15%
AlavesDrawMallorca

AI Pick: Alaves Win

Confidence: 70%

1X2: Alaves Win (70%)

O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals

BTTS: No

Alaves vs Mallorca Prediction

This La Liga clash between Alaves and Mallorca is a critical relegation six-pointer. Alaves, with a stronger home record, will look to capitalize on Mallorca's dismal away form. Expect a tight, low-scoring affair, likely decided by a single goal or ending in a draw.

AI-powered prediction

MATCH RESULT

Alaves Win

Predicted: 1-0

70%

Alaves holds a significant home advantage, demonstrated by their stronger home record (5 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses) compared to Mallorca's abysmal away form (1 win, 3 draws, 11 losses). This is a crucial relegation battle, and Alaves will be highly motivated to secure points at home against a direct rival. Mallorca's low away goal average (0.9 per game) further supports a low-scoring affair where Alaves' home defense could prove decisive.

TOTAL GOALS

Under 2.5 Goals

Total: 2.1

60%

Both Alaves and Mallorca are defensively oriented teams, particularly in crucial matches. Alaves averages 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded at home, while Mallorca averages 0.9 scored and 1.9 conceded away. A high percentage of their games this season have finished with under 2.5 goals. Given Mallorca's struggle to score away from home (failed to score in 6 of 15 away games) and Alaves' solid home defense, a 'No' for Both Teams To Score is favored. The total expected goals for this encounter is projected to be around 2.1, reinforcing the 'Under 2.5 Goals' prediction.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

No

55%

Both Alaves and Mallorca are defensively oriented teams, particularly in crucial matches. Alaves averages 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded at home, while Mallorca averages 0.9 scored and 1.9 conceded away. A high percentage of their games this season have finished with under 2.5 goals. Given Mallorca's struggle to score away from home (failed to score in 6 of 15 away games) and Alaves' solid home defense, a 'No' for Both Teams To Score is favored. The total expected goals for this encounter is projected to be around 2.1, reinforcing the 'Under 2.5 Goals' prediction.

📊 More Markets

Goal Markets

Total Goals (O/U 1.5)

Over 1.5

70%

Despite predicting Under 2.5 goals, a total of 2 goals (e.g., 1-1 or 2-0) is still a common outcome for these teams, making Over 1.5 goals a relatively safe bet.

Total Goals (O/U 3.5)

Under 3.5

90%

Given the low-scoring tendencies of both teams and the high percentage of games going under 2.5 goals, it is highly improbable for this match to feature 4 or more goals.

1st Half Goals (O/U 0.5)

Over 0.5

75%

While a low-scoring game overall, both teams have shown a tendency to score or concede in the first half (Alaves 40% of goals scored in 1H, Mallorca 39%). A single goal before halftime is a reasonable expectation.

First Team to Score

Home

65%

Alaves, playing at home, is more likely to break the deadlock against a Mallorca side that struggles to create chances and score away from home.

Goal in Both Halves

No

60%

With a predicted low-scoring game and a potential clean sheet for Alaves, it's less likely that goals will be scored in both halves.

Most Likely Score

1-0

20%

Reflecting the predicted low-scoring nature and Alaves' home advantage, a narrow 1-0 victory for the home side is the most likely exact score, though exact scores are inherently difficult to predict.

BTTS 1st Half

No

70%

Both teams are generally cautious, especially in the early stages of matches. It's highly unlikely for both teams to score in the first 45 minutes.

xG Based (O/U 2.5)

Under 2.5 xG

70%

Based on the low goal averages and expected cautious play, the quality and quantity of chances created (Expected Goals) are likely to be low for both teams, staying under 2.5 xG.

🏆 Result Markets

Double Chance

1X

80%

Alaves' strong home form combined with Mallorca's struggles on the road makes a home win or draw the most probable outcome.

Draw No Bet

Home

75%

This market offers a safer bet on Alaves to win, with the stake returned if the match ends in a draw, aligning with our primary prediction of an Alaves victory or a draw.

HT/FT

Draw/Home

55%

A cautious start is expected from both sides in this critical match, leading to a halftime draw. Alaves' home advantage and second-half scoring tendency (46.67% of goals in 61-90 mins) suggest they might secure the win in the latter stages.

📊 Team Stats

Total Corners (O/U 9.5)

Over 9.5

65%

As a tight, competitive match with both teams fighting for points, there will likely be sustained periods of pressure and defensive clearances leading to a higher number of corners.

Total Cards (O/U 3.5)

Over 3.5

80%

Both teams average over 2.3 yellow cards per game. In a high-stakes relegation battle, intensity and physical challenges are expected to be high, leading to numerous bookings. The combined average is close to 5 cards per game.

Shots on Target (O/U 8.5)

Under 8.5

60%

Given the expected low-scoring and cautious nature of the match, neither team is likely to create a high volume of clear-cut chances, resulting in fewer shots on target.

Total Shots (O/U 22.5)

Under 22.5

60%

In a cagey, low-scoring affair, teams prioritize defensive solidity and efficiency over high shot volumes, resulting in fewer total shots.

Total Fouls (O/U 22.5)

Over 22.5

70%

La Liga matches, especially relegation battles, tend to be physical and stop-start. Both teams will be committed, leading to a high number of fouls.

Possession Winner

Home

60%

Playing at home, Alaves will likely aim to control the tempo and possession, especially against a Mallorca side that often plays reactively away from home.

Alaves Clean Sheet

Yes

60%

Mallorca's poor away scoring record (0.9 goals per game, failed to score in 6/15 away) makes an Alaves clean sheet plausible. Conversely, Mallorca's leaky away defense (1.9 goals conceded per game) makes an away clean sheet highly unlikely.

Mallorca Clean Sheet

No

60%

Mallorca's poor away scoring record (0.9 goals per game, failed to score in 6/15 away) makes an Alaves clean sheet plausible. Conversely, Mallorca's leaky away defense (1.9 goals conceded per game) makes an away clean sheet highly unlikely.

Alaves vs Mallorca Key Stats

AlavesStatMallorca
15th League Position16th
32 Points31
30 Games Played30
8 Wins8
8 Draws7
32 Goals Scored36
43 Goals Conceded48
1.1 Goals Per Game1.2
3 Clean Sheets3
LLDWD Recent FormLDWLW
🏟️

Estadio Mendizorrotza

Home Ground

12:00 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr 25

Matchday kickoff

La Liga

Soccer

Betting Angles Alaves vs Mallorca

⚠️ Match Result: Alaves Win

Given Alaves' strong home performance and Mallorca's very poor away record, the probability of an Alaves win is higher than the implied odds of 2.2 suggest. Our model estimates a 48% chance of an Alaves victory, offering a positive edge.

⚠️ Total Goals: Under 2.5 Goals

Both teams exhibit a strong tendency for low-scoring games, with Alaves having 28/30 and Mallorca 26/30 league games going under 2.5 goals. The average goals per game for both teams, especially Mallorca away, are well below the 2.5 threshold. This market presents a significant edge.

💰 Sharp Money

Sharp money is expected to lean towards 'Under 2.5 Goals' and potentially 'Alaves Draw No Bet' or 'Alaves to Win' if perceived value exists in the odds. Line movement: Without initial odds, it's hard to predict movement. However, if Alaves' odds are initially high, they might shorten as more money comes in on the home side or the 'Under' market.

AI Same Game Parlay Alaves vs Mallorca

🔥 RECOMMENDED SGP

3-Leg
Alaves Win2.00
Under 2.5 Goals1.85
BTTS: No1.72

Combined Odds: 6.36 (+536)

AI Confidence: 25%

$10 → $63.64 | $25 → $159.10 | $50 → $318.20

Correlation: POSITIVE ✅ — all legs support each other

Risk Assessment

High Risk
7/10
  • ⚠️Both teams are in a relegation battle, which can lead to unpredictable, high-pressure performances.
  • ⚠️The low-scoring nature means a single mistake or moment of brilliance can swing the result.
  • ⚠️Lack of specific H2H data and detailed player statistics introduces some uncertainty.
  • ⚠️Potential for a draw is high, which can be frustrating for win-only bets.

Model Confidence

75%

Data quality: Good, with comprehensive team statistics and league standings. However, the absence of head-to-head records, specific injury reports, and xG data limits deeper analysis.

Limitations

  • No direct head-to-head statistics available.
  • Absence of real-time injury and suspension information.
  • Lack of Expected Goals (xG) data for a more advanced offensive/defensive assessment.
  • No current odds provided, requiring estimation for value bet analysis.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.

Alaves vs Mallorca FAQ

This is a crucial 'six-pointer' in the La Liga relegation battle. Both Alaves (15th) and Mallorca (16th) are just above the relegation zone, separated by only one point. A win for either team would provide significant breathing room, while a loss could drag them closer to the bottom three.